[lesmore49]

I have become very impressed with the photo taking abilities of small phone cameras. Particularly very good phone cameras, like my buddy's Apple.
I think the modern phone camera, especially the top of the line version has become a threat to regular cameras, such as DSLR's, mirror less, 4/3rds, etc.

IMO competition has become really big (DSLR), sort of big (mirrorless, 4/3) VS ever improving phone cameras.

I'm seeing a lot more people using their phone cameras every year. I've seen some 8 X 10's developed from phone cameras and you know, even for a pixel peeper, like ' yours truly', I have to admit, some of the better phone cameras can produce really good photographs and print at 5 X 7, up to 8 X 10.

In fact, when I think of it, with my DSLR, I rarely print over 8 X 10, mostly 5 X 7, rarely 11 X 14.

When I looked at a buddy's 8 X 10 B/W , compared to other B/W 8 X 10's he took with his mid level DSLR....I have to really strain to see any difference.

My prediction. Drum roll please...the envelope.

Within 5-10 years through ever improving technological evolution of small camera phones ...I would be surprised if many carried a DSLR, mirrorless, 4/3rds, point + shoot and a kit of lenses. There will be a few diehards still using larger cameras, but there numbers will continue to dwindle.

I could be wrong, but I don't think so. Some may say, but technology will also increase with larger cameras....which might be. But if you can get excellent enlargements ( 8 X 10, 11 X 14) of similar quality that a DSLR can now (2014) produce with a small, convenient phone camera....why would even an enthusiast want to lug around a large camera with a kit of lenses ?

[robthebloke]

Bokeh, that's why.

[JimmyDranox]

Good lenses, tele and wide, is another reason,

[ChristianRock]

It all depends on how you define "enthusiast"...

Also, you assume that there won't be any breakthrough in DSLR camera technology. And that a majority of users will be ok with a camera user interface.

[p38arover]

why would even an enthusiast want to lug around a large camera with a kit of lenses ?

The ability to change DoF?

Personally, I hate the rear screen on my Q so rarely ever use it. I only use my iPhone for taking pics of price tags, etc., in stores so I can show the checkout chick the item price when the item doesn't have it's own tag, or for "off the cuff" pics.

[FantasticMrFox]

Unless you start to pack large sensors with impressive low-light capabilities into smart-phones and come up with a way to offer lenses that cover everything from ultra wide-angle to tele with great bokeh, smartphone cameras, as good as they will unquestionable get, will never replace professional cameras.

[EarlVonTapia]

The reason my lust for premium compacts such as the RX100, Pentax MX, etc. has been killed is because of

ANDROID L

It gives smartphones the native ability to shoot in raw.

[L Camera] DNG samples from Nexus 5, and what you can do with them : Android

The shortcomings of these devices as "cameras" are more than made up for by the fact they are essentially full-fledged computers.You will have access to massive suites of all kinds of photography apps, native wi-fi capabilities, instant sharing, and a bunch of other stuff.

[ttran88]

Handling will never be on par with a dslr or mirrorless camera.

[MetteHHH]

I'm into bird photography - so I don't predict a phone to fit my needs any time soon!

Predicting that phones will replace point and shoots is hardly a prediction about the future any more though, and I have a few phone snapshots myself that I am happy to have, simply because it was the camera at hand when the situation occurred. But a phone is severely size limited, so as long as optics are made from glass... no, I don't believe your prediction will come though.

[stevebrot]

It all depends on how you define "enthusiast"...

I am enthused about my phone cam.


Steve

---------- Post added 11-21-14 at 03:00 PM ----------

I'm into bird photography - so I don't predict a phone to fit my needs any time soon!

I took this one with my phone, does it count?




Steve

[Steve.Ledger]

I think the modern phone camera, especially the top of the line version has become a threat to regular cameras, such as DSLR's, mirror less, 4/3rds, etc.

I don't.

IMO competition has become really big (DSLR), sort of big (mirrorless, 4/3) VS ever improving phone cameras.

There is no comparison, unless you are one of those types who wants everything in focus from the tip of your nose to infinity. In which case, you didn't need a ILC in the first place.

I'm seeing a lot more people using their phone cameras every year. I've seen some 8 X 10's developed from phone cameras and you know, even for a pixel peeper, like ' yours truly', I have to admit, some of the better phone cameras can produce really good photographs and print at 5 X 7, up to 8 X 10.

You may have a large circle of friends and a large percentage who do as you assert, but by no means does that indicate a global trend.
Phone cams can make nice postcard prints, instantly uploadable hipstergram snaps etc which is where they have become popular. But that doesn't mean they will push out ILCs.

In fact, when I think of it, with my DSLR, I rarely print over 8 X 10, mostly 5 X 7, rarely 11 X 14.

ipso facto no-one else does, right?

When I looked at a buddy's 8 X 10 B/W , compared to other B/W 8 X 10's he took with his mid level DSLR....I have to really strain to see any difference.

Because see point #2 above. You'd never get a pro portrait or product print from a phone camera snap. You can instantly tell the difference.

Within 5-10 years through ever improving technological evolution of small camera phones ...I would be surprised if many carried a DSLR, mirrorless, 4/3rds, point + shoot and a kit of lenses. There will be a few diehards still using larger cameras, but there numbers will continue to dwindle.

You have a rather large margin of prediction error there, which perhaps indicates that you aren't entirely sure what will actually happen
Large camera user numbers won't dwindle, ILCs are being sold every day - so it can't just be true. But for snapshots, phone camera usage will increase I agree, this is just demographics.

I could be wrong, but I don't think so. Some may say, but technology will also increase with larger cameras....which might be. But if you can get excellent enlargements ( 8 X 10, 11 X 14) of similar quality that a DSLR can now (2014) produce with a small, convenient phone camera....why would even an enthusiast want to lug around a large camera with a kit of lenses ?

It's not always about prints and 'enlargements' for everyone. In fact, I'm certain a huge percentage of people don't ever print their shots. I'd wager that more phone snappers print their shots more often than most ILC users.
For many (millions) ILC 'enthusiasts' the joy is as much the gear and the challenge as it is viewing the photo. That will never change.
For me, I never lug around my DSLR, I carry it because I chose to. If I think I will need a second lens, I'll bring it. It would only be an encumbrance if I was forced to bring it when I knew I would have no use for it.

That's my personal response and prediction

[MarkJerling]

I have become very impressed with the photo taking abilities of small phone cameras. Particularly very good phone cameras, like my buddy's Apple.....why would even an enthusiast want to lug around a large camera with a kit of lenses ?

I'm sorry, I simply do not agree. Your' buddy's Apple is not taking good photos. It may be taking adequate photos, bot not good, professional quality photos. Large cameras exists because form follows function. Pentax, especially, do not make their cameras bigger than they need to be.

[DeadJohn]

^ I think that bird is pining for the fjords

Staying on-topic, bokeh was mentioned as a reason why phone cameras aren't enough. Processing power and imaging software will become more powerful over the next 10 years, maybe to the point where a bokeh app gives great results that are better than today's DSLRs. Or maybe not.

Low light has also been mentioned. In 10 years, maybe phone sized sensors will be as good as the full frame sensors of today, but full frame will also continue to advance. I don't expect any cell phone to excel at astrophotography in my lifetime.

User interface is the biggie for me. I would hate trying TAv mode on a phone. Maybe some app designer will come up with a brand new interface. Heck, we might have phones that can read brainwaves, no buttons or dials needed.

[MarkJerling]

^ I think that bird is pining for the fjords.

No, it's just resting!

[TaoMaas]

Within 5-10 years through ever improving technological evolution of small camera phones ...I would be surprised if many carried a DSLR, mirrorless, 4/3rds...

The number of people who carry a camera that takes interchangeable lenses and who own more than 2 lenses has ALWAYS been a fairly small niche. Phones are definitely going to kill P&S cameras (and are doing so as we speak...er, type....whatever). But phones will be hard pressed to equal the quality and flexibility of an interchangeable lens, full size, camera system.