Doom & Gloom....are you ready?

*Rupert* · 09-29-2009, 08:03 AM

I see we are all fired up over Obama, Illegal Immigrants, Healthcare, Crooked Politicians, Tea Parties, 200 Million Man Marches, Democrats, Republicans, Liberals, Conservatives......the rising price of lenses (the most serious of the bunch).

Is anyone watching the Mideast? My friends, an attack by Israel on Iran is perhaps only weeks away. Have you considered how this will impact your life and the world around you? I have been watching this closely for some time and time is running short....very short. It has gone from a possibility to a high probability...very high.

Any thoughts on what this will mean to you in your part of the world? It won't be a quick and painless event, it will impact every corner of the world.....just wondering?
Regards
Rupert

Parallax · 09-29-2009, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by Rupert

...................................
Any thoughts on what this will mean to you in your part of the world? It won't be a quick and painless event, it will impact every corner of the world.....just wondering?
Regards
Rupert

They said the same thing in early June of 1967. It surely won't impact us as much as if we (the U.S.) did it directly ourselves. The Middle East is different from any other conflict in history. WWI, WWII, Korea, Viet Nam, The American Revolution, were all about either acquiring territory, or escaping someone else's rule, some sort of end goal for the aggressor. With Iran, Iraq, the Talliban, Alqaeda, Hamas and other like minded groups, it is different. They fight and kill for one reason, and one reason only; they like it. You can not bring peace to people who don't want it.
Unlike the U.S., Israel realizes that if your enemy can get back up, you didn't hit him hard enough. If Israel does something drastic enough, and thoroughly enough, it may go a long way toward slowing down a lot of those groups.

lurchlarson · 09-29-2009, 08:54 AM

I suppose that other nations in the middle east will likely get dragged in, thereby rapidly inflating the cost of oil. That'll probably do a number on the economy as the price of everything will go up (inflation).

With the rising inflation coupled with the insane amount of money spent by the government (the bailouts) the value of the dollar is going to tank. That will make everything even more expensive as we import WAY more than we export. The current administration might suggest another bailout to make people feel like they have more money than they really do.

I would not be surprised to see riots in the US and abroad over the failing economies. Russia and China will begin to push even harder on the WorldBank to create a new world currency (they have been doing that for months now). The dollar, which is already falling largely out of favor as a world currency could become worthless. The inflation we see might make the inflation during Carter look like nothing at all. Interest rates will begin to skyrocket. That's another hit to the economy.

That was an interesting thought experiment. I could go on but I won't.

I'm just hoping that cooler heads will prevail. I just don't know that they will.

lurchlarson · 09-29-2009, 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by Parallax

They said the same thing in early June of 1967. It surely won't impact us as much as if we (the U.S.) did it directly ourselves. The Middle East is different from any other conflict in history. WWI, WWII, Korea, Viet Nam, The American Revolution, were all about either acquiring territory, or escaping someone else's rule, some sort of end goal for the aggressor. With Iran, Iraq, the Talliban, Alqaeda, Hamas and other like minded groups, it is different. They fight and kill for one reason, and one reason only; they like it. You can not bring peace to people who don't want it.
Unlike the U.S., Israel realizes that if your enemy can get back up, you didn't hit him hard enough. If Israel does something drastic enough, and thoroughly enough, it may go a long way toward slowing down a lot of those groups.

I agree and hope you are right Parallax

*Wheatfield* · 09-29-2009, 10:12 AM

Originally Posted by Rupert

I see we are all fired up over Obama, Illegal Immigrants, Healthcare, Crooked Politicians, Tea Parties, 200 Million Man Marches, Democrats, Republicans, Liberals, Conservatives......the rising price of lenses (the most serious of the bunch).

Is anyone watching the Mideast? My friends, an attack by Israel on Iran is perhaps only weeks away. Have you considered how this will impact your life and the world around you? I have been watching this closely for some time and time is running short....very short. It has gone from a possibility to a high probability...very high.

Any thoughts on what this will mean to you in your part of the world? It won't be a quick and painless event, it will impact every corner of the world.....just wondering?
Regards
Rupert

Yup, it's why we shouldn't sell arms to unstable countries.

reytor · 09-29-2009, 10:16 AM

This could be very long, but I try to keep it short.

The economics will get hurt independently of how many countries in Middle East are directly involved. Being THE oil resource of the world, any conflict in area will hit world economics hard.

When a person (or comunity) feels provoked, he's going to respond somehow. Sometimes violently, sometimes not. (See some threads, where Pentax equipment has been attacked).
In this case both (or even more) parties have been provoked and thus respond can be expected from different sources. The first one to pull the trigger, will be held responsible in my eyes of the consequencies.

Let's get a poll made of how many of us in the forum bought K-7 and REALLY needed it. The rest of us (including my person) made a purchase provoked by different things as we all feel differently and have different priorities. And that doesn't make us enemies, or does it? (Yeah, I know it's not exactly the same thing)

I just REALLY hope that an other useless war can be avoided and that some day we learn about the history, not live in the history (forgive and forget) and start to make this planet better place to live.

tlwyse · 09-29-2009, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Rupert

Is anyone watching the Mideast? My friends, an attack by Israel on Iran is perhaps only weeks away. Have you considered how this will impact your life and the world around you? I have been watching this closely for some time and time is running short....very short. It has gone from a possibility to a high probability...very high.

Any thoughts on what this will mean to you in your part of the world? It won't be a quick and painless event, it will impact every corner of the world.....just wondering?
Regards
Rupert

I see it saving us the jet fuel and ordnance of doing it ourselves.

Later,
Terry "Pixel Peeping Tom" Wyse

*Ratmagiclady* · 09-29-2009, 12:24 PM

Well, I hope Israel doesn't fall for the saber-rattling. The theocratic fundamentalist government in Iran is highly troubled: if Ahmedinejad wants to hold onto power, he has every incentive to provoke some 'enemies' to energize his supporters right now.

(Mind you, I don't blame them one bit for *wanting* to wipe that regime's toys off the map. I'm just not convinced it's wise to take the bait.)

*graphicgr8s* · 09-29-2009, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by reytor

The economics will get hurt independently of how many countries in Middle East are directly involved. Being THE oil resource of the world, any conflict in area will hit world economics hard.

That's why the US needs to drill its own oil. Too bad the bleeding hearts won't have any of that.

*Ratmagiclady* · 09-29-2009, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by graphicgr8s

That's why the US needs to drill its own oil. Too bad the bleeding hearts won't have any of that.

Too bad what we could drill isn't near enough, even if we dug it all up to squander right now.

One way or another, we're going to end up having to produce more oil domestically, but the 'drill here, drill now' meme that's used as an excuse to oppose going to more modern forms of energy and efficiency and be anti-environmentalist just doesn't present a solution to the growing energy consumption, even if most of the new places the oil companies want to lay claim to wouldn't start producing for ten or fifteen years, and then only account for half a percent of our present consumption. They haven't exactly run out of oil where they *are* allowed to drill, either. they just want to stake claims. I notice they aren't pushing for it *now* cause they couldn't expect to get the sweetheart deals a Republican congress would. I say, if they want to start developing those reserves, they should be willing to accept some pretty strict regulations and responsibilities, if it's for 'the public good.' But it's not going to change the real things that need doing, both for the economy, energy security, and for the environment. I'm kind of hoping we can start working on some of the 'green jobs' as soon as this health care kerfuffle is done. )

*monochrome* · 09-29-2009, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by Ratmagiclady

Too bad what we could drill isn't near enough, even if we dug it all up to squander right now.

This time (unlike 1977) our supply/demand crisis of ALL natural resources (not just hydrcarbons) is the real McCoy.

Food price increases (food production and distribution is one of the largest users of hydrocarbon fuels) alone will challenge everything we currently "know" about the world.

Pollyana optimists have American history on their side, and we will likely (at the last possible moment) find a substitute, but this time we really are up against the resource consumption wall.

*Ratmagiclady* · 09-29-2009, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by monochrome

This time (unlike 1977) our supply/demand crisis of ALL natural resources (not just hydrcarbons) is the real McCoy.

Food price increases (food production and distribution is one of the largest users of hydrocarbon fuels) alone will challenge everything we currently "know" about the world.

Pollyana optimists have American history on their side, and we will likely (at the last possible moment) find a substitute, but this time we really are up against the resource consumption wall.

Yep, there's that. But looking for a single magic bullet has been the thing that's held up getting much of *anything* done about alternative energy for decades.

It's going to take a mix of everything we can bring to bear to get through this: doubtless it'll involve more drilling and some nuke plants, but the longer we wait on the green stuff, and the conservation/efficiency, the less those things will be able to fill the gaps.

A lot of this industrial agriculture relies on fossil fuels for fertilizer, too, not to mention transportation, so that's a potential double whammy right there.

*graphicgr8s* · 09-29-2009, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Ratmagiclady

Too bad what we could drill isn't near enough, even if we dug it all up to squander right now.

One way or another, we're going to end up having to produce more oil domestically, but the 'drill here, drill now' meme that's used as an excuse to oppose going to more modern forms of energy and efficiency and be anti-environmentalist just doesn't present a solution to the growing energy consumption, even if most of the new places the oil companies want to lay claim to wouldn't start producing for ten or fifteen years, and then only account for half a percent of our present consumption. They haven't exactly run out of oil where they *are* allowed to drill, either. they just want to stake claims. I notice they aren't pushing for it *now* cause they couldn't expect to get the sweetheart deals a Republican congress would. I say, if they want to start developing those reserves, they should be willing to accept some pretty strict regulations and responsibilities, if it's for 'the public good.' But it's not going to change the real things that need doing, both for the economy, energy security, and for the environment. I'm kind of hoping we can start working on some of the 'green jobs' as soon as this health care kerfuffle is done. )

Well like it or not there is going to be drilling off Florida. Just not by the US.

And don't give me the crap about the leases. If there were oil there they'd be drilling already. No sense drilling a dry hole.

Geology reports do however put a sizable reserve in the Gulf of Mehico. And in the north country. estimate say it could be producing in as soon as 4-5 years.

*Ratmagiclady* · 09-29-2009, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by graphicgr8s

Well like it or not there is going to be drilling off Florida. Just not by the US.

It's not a matter of whether or not I like it. (Don't happen to, particularly.)

It's just that setting up an irresponsible free-for all for the oil companies isn't the panacea anti-environmentalists like to claim it is.

And don't give me the crap about the leases. If there were oil there they'd be drilling already. No sense drilling a dry hole.

Geology reports do however put a sizable reserve in the Gulf of Mehico. And in the north country. estimate say it could be producing in as soon as 4-5 years.

It's not as if there isn't domestic oil being drilled as it is. In the Gulf particularly. I have no doubt we're going to have to, sooner or later. The question's how and when to go about it, and having no illusions about it being any kind of an excuse not to change anything else.

*graphicgr8s* · 09-29-2009, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by Ratmagiclady

It's not a matter of whether or not I like it. (Don't happen to, particularly.)

It's just that setting up an irresponsible free-for all for the oil companies isn't the panacea anti-environmentalists like to claim it is.

It's not as if there isn't domestic oil being drilled as it is. In the Gulf particularly. I have no doubt we're going to have to, sooner or later. The question's how and when to go about it, and having no illusions about it being any kind of an excuse not to change anything else.

The problem with the people drilling off Florida's coast is they don't give a fat rat's behind about our environment. We should be there drilling. Now. It's not our country drilling. It's not our companies drilling. We get no benefit whatsoever yet we will wind up cleaning up their spills.