New pro thinking - Page 2

little laker · 12-18-2007, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by benjikan

You Blew your NDA..Better get your lawyer

Sorry Ben, I forgot all about that

mattdm · 12-18-2007, 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by benjikan

Nope wasn't me. never mentioned it being called the K20D....That seems to be the name of choice on all of the blogs.
I think that was started on a Chinese blog.
Ben

I think it was you who hinted that K20D wasn't the name. And here you are doing it again.

stewart_photo · 12-20-2007, 03:05 AM

Originally Posted by JMS

After collecting information from various sources, I'd like to announce my suspicions publically. (snip)

Okay, here are my predictions once again. As I've said before, I don't think the next model will replace the K10D. Instead, the K10D will likely remain on the market until the middle of next year with perhaps minor tweaks and additions before then. If those tweaks or additions are made early in the new year (January), the K10D will be likely be renamed slightly to something like the K10Ds. Such a minor name change would allow the updated model to continue it's association with the award-winning K10D.

I think the next Pentax camera everyone is thinking about will be an entirely new 12-14 megapixel model aimed squarely at the Canon ESO 5D and Nikon D300/D2Xs. I suspect it will be named something like the K5D so internet search engines will bring it up with any search for the Canon 5D. I also think this new Pentax will be priced somewhere in the $1500-1800 price range to compete strongly in both price and performance with those $2000-2500 Canon and Nikon products.

Finally, since the market is so small, I don't think Pentax will release a top-end model similar to the Nikon D3 or Canon EOS-1Ds Mark III anytime within the next four or five years. However, if a new top-end Pentax model does arrive anytime soon, it will likely be a 15-18 megapixel medium format camera, with many DSLR-like features, priced nearly the same as the top Nikon and Canon DSLR's (thousands less than other medium format cameras). However, this particular prediction is a real stretch, so don't hold your breath waiting for it.

Well, those are my predictions for the coming months. We'll see shortly whether I'm any good at reading market trends and speculating from there.

stewart

TDN · 12-20-2007, 06:08 AM

Bringing out a camera to compete with the D3 or MarkIII would be a very dumb move from Pentax right now.

They need to make profit, quick. And you don't do that with a 5000$ product that only a very small portion of the market needs. You do it with a competitive product that appeals to the large public of consumers, and is affordable enough for the average Joe to buy.

So coming out with a model that competes with the D300/40D and one that takes on the D40x/400D is definitely the best move.

But it's all rumors anyway...

Tom

fishy · 12-20-2007, 06:44 AM

So finally I'm chipping in...

Although I think TDN has a point in pure sales profits and volumes if a top-line cam was produced, I also think its announcement might boost sales of the current line-up. In camera shops lately I see a lot of people eyeing the K1*D. Even salespeople here in the Netherlands are more forthcoming in advising them as really good alternatives, but when asked for disadvantages, the answers I pick up (of course I don't (really) live in a camera shop) are boringly often along the lines of
a) poor choice in lenses (not necessarily true, however finding an affordable wide still keeps me occupied)

and

b) No growth perspective if you want to step up.

I know b) doesnt hold (or shouldn't) for the average person, but I feel it can be one of those emotional factors: "What if I want to... "
I know that's partly keeping me from investing big $$$ in digital lensen: What if I ever get my hands on a FF Pentax?? Silly, I know, but that's how my mind works.

BTW: I am very pleased with this whole buzz thing. Makes me feel I didn't bet on a dead horse after all!

'nuf said; let's wait and see.

welshwizard645 · 12-20-2007, 08:03 AM

I have it on good authority the new cameras will be:

K10D Super
K100D SuperDooper

*benjikan* · 12-20-2007, 08:16 AM

Originally Posted by welshwizard645

I have it on good authority the new cameras will be:

K10D Super
K100D SuperDooper

It's the "BIG MA-K"
and the super dupper "BIG BIG MA-K"

noblepa · 12-20-2007, 08:29 AM

Originally Posted by TDN

Bringing out a camera to compete with the D3 or MarkIII would be a very dumb move from Pentax right now.

They need to make profit, quick. And you don't do that with a 5000$ product that only a very small portion of the market needs. You do it with a competitive product that appeals to the large public of consumers, and is affordable enough for the average Joe to buy.

So coming out with a model that competes with the D300/40D and one that takes on the D40x/400D is definitely the best move.

But it's all rumors anyway...

Tom

While Pentax probably has the same chance as the proverbial snowball in h*** of seriously competing in the market with the D3, it may not be a stupid move. There is the image factor.

I think that one of the marketing tools that both N & C use, at least implicitly, is "many, many pro photographers use our cameras, so you should buy our low-end models". Pentax can't counter that, because, as we all know, very few pros (with the exception of Ben and a few others) use Pentax cameras. The K10D, as good as it is, isn't really in the same class as N & C's top models.

A Chevy dealer once told me that, while only something like one percent of all Chevies sold were Corvette's, the 'Vette was responsible for around 10 percent of sales. Guys would come in to dream about a Corvette and end up driving out in a Malibu or Impala station wagon.

So, a line of pro-oriented cameras that is well supported by Pentax might create an image that would help Pentax in the pro-sumer market segment, even if the pro series cameras aren't really profitable.

Back in the days when film was king, many pros used the Pentax 6 x 7 or 645 cameras. Hoya may want to regain that place in the market. Isn't that what the 645D would have done? Hoya may wish to use their money to revive that plan, even if they don't revive that particular product.

But then, what do I know?

Paul Noble

TaoMaas · 12-20-2007, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by noblepa

Back in the days when film was king, many pros used the Pentax 6 x 7 or 645 cameras. Hoya may want to regain that place in the market. Isn't that what the 645D would have done?

If Pentax wants to reclaim their share of the pro market, the 645D is their best bet, IMO. Jump the megapixels and low light capability way beyond anything Canon or Nikon can accomplish even with a FF sensor. IMO, if the price was held down, such a camera might also capture a big chunk of the advanced amateur market, too...especially for those photographers for whom image quality is more important than fps and autofocus speed.

BrendanPK · 12-20-2007, 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by TaoMaas

If Pentax wants to reclaim their share of the pro market, the 645D is their best bet, IMO. Jump the megapixels and low light capability way beyond anything Canon or Nikon can accomplish even with a FF sensor. IMO, if the price was held down, such a camera might also capture a big chunk of the advanced amateur market, too...especially for those photographers for whom image quality is more important than fps and autofocus speed.

I agree. I would say come out with a stellar D300 competitor, and the 645D at 30mp and a price UNDER the Canon 1Dmk3.
This would provide 2 things, proof that pentax is still looking out for the "big pros" that use Med. Format, and Studios that would like to but only rent on an as-needed basis because of the cost
And that they have the RD power to produce a Pro 35mm-ish DSLR later because of the advances in the 645D

>To do this the 645D would have to have:
The 30mp chip they already talked about, sim body style too.
A new "standard DA lens (2 actually, a prime and a zoom) to account for the crop factor (Think kit for around $6-7000)
FAST AF, better in body AF motor, and maybe think SDM for the new lenses, that would be a first I think for med-format Also the AF computer needs to be faster. This would provide both studio pros a great camera and wedding photogs a quiet superb image and fast camera for the events.
Var ways to transmit to the computer (CF Card, SD Card [duel slot like for RAW+] tethered and wireless [in a add-on adapter])
FPS at or above the 2 that is current, think maybe 3-4 with an assist from an electronic shutter (less rely on the mirror and shutter blades to do the work), and of course Live View.
And of course ISO that go's from 50-6400 and even higher, with that size chip the noise would be minimized from heat/space so the high ISO should be able to be achieved

>As for the K20D-ish that would go head to head with the likes of the D300 Basically everyone has specked it out, I agree and the most 3 crucial points are AF computer speed, Noise Reduction/ISO speed and FPS needs to be 5-8 to stay competitive even with the Sony.

TaoMaas · 12-20-2007, 10:15 AM

Yep, yep...I'd only add a degree of backwards compatibility so that older 645 and 6X7 lenses could be used.

BrendanPK · 12-20-2007, 10:37 AM

Originally Posted by TaoMaas

Yep, yep...I'd only add a degree of backwards compatibility so that older 645 and 6X7 lenses could be used.

of course, stil got the 67 adater and the older lenses would of course mount up fine (still no af on the mf lenses though) but hey thats still cool

*clawhammer* · 12-20-2007, 11:31 AM

I don't know if pentax would be able to make such a beast under 10K- a while back they stated that that was their target price for the 645D, but it seems to me that it has been shelved.

anomaly · 12-20-2007, 01:11 PM

I think they probably really meant that it is being put on the back burner rather than cancelled. As we have discussed here already, now is not the time.

Pentax has already been snatching up pro photojournalists. To me the K10D replacement and pro level APS-C or full frame camera (if there is one) should aim for that market; photo journalists, wedding photographers and general "on location" work.

From there in a couple of years they could start moving into the area of medium format digital for studio use.

rvannatta · 12-20-2007, 10:03 PM

Originally Posted by anomaly

I think they probably really meant that it is being put on the back burner rather than cancelled. As we have discussed here already, now is not the time.

Pentax has already been snatching up pro photojournalists. To me the K10D replacement and pro level APS-C or full frame camera (if there is one) should aim for that market; photo journalists, wedding photographers and general "on location" work.

From there in a couple of years they could start moving into the area of medium format digital for studio use.

You are ignoring their need to DELIVER on the lens roadmap, and get 3rd parties to support
their SDM feature.