Originally posted by gnaztee And my SDM lens
hasn't failed, and there are numerous web forum posts about SDM lenses that
have failed, and numerous posts about SDM lenses that
haven't failed, and so...we can conclude that that it is
possible SDM will fail, but in the absence of hard statistics have no clue whether it's
probable SDM will fail.
I'm just sayin' too
Agreed.
No one knows the exact numbers, aside from Pentax themselves, and I doubt they would be forthcoming with the information.
That said, it's hardly "probable" that SDM will fail on a given lens, sugeesting that over the life of a given lens it's got a better than 50% chance of failing. I have 4 SDM lenses and I fully acknowledge that it's possible (maybe even somewhat likely) that at some point one of them will fail. I also have no doubt that it is significantly more probable for an SDM lens to fail compared to a screw-driven lens.
And if someone is risk-adverse, then I would recommend staying away from SDM lenses altogether as the constant wondering "when is my lenses going to die" could potentially take away the enjoyment of the lens while it's not broken. However, for someone who is aware of the potential risk (which, again, is possible, not probable) and who is aware of the consequences of a failure (a $200 repair), there are many fine SDM lenses that are more than worth considering despite the potential for failure.