[6BQ5]

Ricoh has announced an upcoming FF body and the Pentax community is celebrating! There will finally be a digital camera body that can natively accept K-mount lenses and use all the built in features like aperture control, autofocus, and power zoom - and all this will happen with a 24mm x 36mm image sensor. The first body released is expected to be expensive, not for what it is but for the absolute sum of money when compared to other camera bodies and perhaps a monthly groceries budget. Not everyone will buy the upcoming FF body for this reason and maybe even the second version will be too expensive as well. Camera bodies with APS sensors will have a clear market space due to their lower price. They will be the affordable entry point for the K-mount ecosystem.

However, at some point the FF body price will start coming down, especially in the used market space. We've seen prices of the first generation Sony A7 drop like a meteor burning through the atmosphere. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happens to the Pentax FF bodies as the 3rd or 4th generation comes out. This is going to put a lot of pressure on APS technology. If FF prices drop then APS will have to follow but there's a squeeze coming from the other side too. The IQ and performance gap between APS and u4/3 is shrinking fast. Today's u4/3 is yesterday's APS. Tomorrow's u4/3 will surpass today's APS for sure. The trend is clear as companies like Sony put out new sensors with lower noise and wider dynamic range.

If APS bodies start getting squeezed then the lenses will follow too. I think that the squeeze will be so hard on the APS ecosystem that Ricoh will thin out the product line before eventually discontinuing it. What would be the point of continuing APS? The bodies aren't any smaller. IQ isn't any higher. Performance won't be any better. The lenses may be slightly smaller but the elephant in the room is the massive 45.46mm registration distance. That distance is fixed. It's a monument of the K-mount and a pillar that holds up the ecosystem. If you're going with big bodies with big formats then these users will be willing to go with slightly bigger lenses (depending on the design). Otherwise, there is u4/3 for the "small" package.

I don't think this is going to happen overnight. It may be 5 to 10 years before we see DA lenses thin out to what we see in the Q ecosystem. There will be one of everything. A combination of three or four zooms will cover UWA to telephoto and three or four primes will give users a trinity plus a macro. Even that will disappear too. By then Ricoh will be full steam ahead with FF lenses. There will be a low, medium, high, and pro priced bodies and there will be lenses to match. We'll all reminisce about the DA lenses and how wonderful their rendering is - the contrast, the colors, the saturation, etc. Nostalgia will kick in and we'll all want to go back to to "vintage digital lenses". After the nostalgia wears off we'll be back to going forward with FF.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to be gloomy here. There are a lot of DA lens fans who have spent a lot of money on lenses. God bless their hearts. Their purchases funded everything from *ist D to the K-3 II but I don't see a future for APS anymore than Henry Ford saw one for the horse carriage and the buggy whip. I've put my money where my mouth is. An Olympus M10 sits on my shelf alongside my collection of FA primes. If images samples from the Sony A7 with FA lenses is any indication of what we can expect from the upcoming FF bodies then I will be a very happy photographer. All I will need to do is save up for a high quality zoom and I'm set. I have only one DA lens and that is the DA 18-135mm. The M10 does a marvelous job with its 16 MP sensor. I can see the limitations of the sensor but only in extreme situations. Then my K-3 steps in and fills the gap.

I gave DA lenses 15 years, tops. What is your prediction?

[Pål Jensen]

Wrong prediction.

[jatrax]

I gave DA lenses 15 years, tops. What is your prediction?

In 15 years the camera will be a button clipped to your shirt pocket, controlled by mind waves. Capable of 10-2,000mm focal range and delivering 200MP images directly to your galactic storage system. So what's the issue with DA lenses again?

[max_pyne]

ha, my mind controlled bot or Drone will cary my camera... With a sensor size of 6x7 (1.2 terapixel and 3D) and a 1-21, 20-500, 500-2000 mm revolver and all @ F2.8. Or F1.0.

[formercanuck]

I don't think that DA lenses will disappear, but I do think that DA lenses will be much more limited in deployment/development.

I personally think that Pentax may stop producing a lot of their lower volume DA lenses - such as DA 17-70 f/4, as they have the newer DA 16-85mm WR (not fixed aperture though).
Similarly, I suspect that others that are not WR or kit or DA* style may share a similar fate when FF lenses become available.

Some primes may be discontinued as well, esp if they're not FF compatible. I don't see plastic fantastic going anywhere though.

Ricoh is at a cross roads with APS-C/FF. As small sensors are getting better, many are not using cameras at all... Cellphones have as much MP as my K-30! Just no DoF
Ricoh/Pentax is (has been) the only one to really kick butt with APS-C on the professional level. Canon/Nikon have usually kept 'professional' cameras to the FF market.

I do think that BOTH can exist (and should) unless/until market decides.

[Na Horuk]

I guess the next ones will be called DFA HD. I hope they will bring back the aperture ring. Main problem is that DA lenses are not all APSC-only, many project FF image circle, so the whole thing is already a little confused.

but I don't see a future for APS anymore

Nah. I think APSC will continue to exist, especially in compact and entry level bodies. It should just come down in price and become (even) more compact.

[monochrome]

I believe from a cost recovery standpoint the expected life of a lens design is ten years. Look at the introduction dates of the Pentax lenses, factor in a guess as to how much is held in inventory and you'll have a picture of how quickly the DA lens line should turn over into something different.

Just adding HD and DC requires a pretty complete change, I should think. My bet is the consumer lenses are replaced and DA Limiteds continue. One major advantage to pro level APSc cameras is small size versus FF - especially at the high end I expect APSc to remain the leading format for many years.

[Rmel26]

I believe from a cost recovery standpoint the expected life of a lens design is ten years. Look at the introduction dates of the Pentax lenses, factor in a guess as to how much is held in inventory and you'll have a picture of how quickly the DA lens line should turn over into something different.

Just adding HD and DC requires a pretty complete change, I should think. My bet is the consumer lenses are replaced and DA Limiteds continue. One major advantage to pro level APSc cameras is small size versus FF - especially at the high end I expect APSc to remain the leading format for many years.

Just as Micro 4 3, 1 inch sensor will continue and flourish, APSC will go on. I think more and more users are going with dual approach - large format sensors for wide to normal and smaller sensors for telephoto extra reach. I would certainly try out full frame once the price goes down but would likely limit myself to the wide normal lenses.

[THoog]

So long as the smaller form factor is profitable, Ricoh will make it. Smaller form factor cameras will probably remain popular in the Asian market (which is Ricoh Pentax's primary market). But who is to say any K-mount lenses will be in production in ten or fifteen years? Fifteen years ago, Asahi Optical only made film cameras under its "Pentax" brand. A lot can change in fifteen years.

My prediction: in fifteen years, we will be taking terapixel pictures using our iBrain implants, and telling our grandclones how we once held "cameras" in our "hands".

[jatrax]

Main problem is that DA lenses are not all APSC-only, many project FF image circle, so the whole thing is already a little confused.

Very confused. And it will take a long time to really clear this up. I suspect over time as lenses are 'refreshed' the naming will change to make clear whether they will work on FF. So for example the DA 50mm f/1.8 might become the DFA 50mm f/1.8. But that is going to take years, many years.

One major advantage to pro level APSc cameras is small size versus FF - especially at the high end I expect APSc to remain the leading format for many years.

Almost certainly APS-C is going to remain a major portion of sales. So even though the emphasis might be to get FF lenses out the door, fill out the catalog with FF lenses and clear up the naming issues I think we will continue to see a good selection of DA only lenses. I look for a complete refresh of the DA* zooms perhaps late 2016 or 2017 with HD coatings and DC motors.

[biz-engineer]

Prediction : DA lenses to disappear?

Oh my good, with such a statement, you'd eventually trigger a lot of emotional reactions from die hard Pentaxians. Well, since some of you might end-up with Canon gear like previous die hard Pentaxian already ended-up doing, come down, DA lenses might disappear or not, we don't know yet. What can be done in terms of risk mitigation is to buy several copies of each of DA lenses, so, even if DA lenses are discontinued.

[6BQ5]

@formercanuck : I think we may see a melding of DA and FA lenses in the next 1-5 years as Ricoh consolidates its line up of lenses. The 35mm and 50mm plastic fantastics will be rebranded and maybe even tweaked to become D-FA primes to join the D-FA 50mm and 100mm WR lenses. Maybe the tweak will be new coatings. Taking the ring out is a money saver for Ricoh. The DA 17-70mm definitely sounds like a candidate for obsolescence.

@Na Horuk: I don't know about the aperture rings. It would be nice to have them come back but the current mount would have to be "un-crippled". I agree that APS lenses would have to come down in price to co-exist with some of the already lower FF lenses. The question is how much? If they fall too much then they compete with the used market for FF lenses and then lenses become a commodity item.

@Rmel26: I don't really see 1" sensor flourishing the same way as u4/3 in the ILC space. Maybe 1" sensors just need more time as Nikon and Samsung keep building up their ecosystems. It seems like the 1" sensor is finding a good home in premium compacts.

@jatrax: I think we'll see the DA 35mm and DA 50mm plastics rebranded as D-FA lenses very quickly. Why would Ricoh hold out on releasing some entry level lenses that could be perfectly functional? I don't think Ricoh would want people hacking DNG files to "un-crop" the image from these lenses. We'll see what 2016 and 2017 bring. I still think we'll see more emphasis on FF than DA.

[jatrax]

I think we'll see the DA 35mm and DA 50mm plastics rebranded as D-FA lenses very quickly. Why would Ricoh hold out on releasing some entry level lenses that could be perfectly functional? I don't think Ricoh would want people hacking DNG files to "un-crop" the image from these lenses. We'll see what 2016 and 2017 bring. I still think we'll see more emphasis on FF than DA.

I think they will see a name change, eventually but not as quickly as you might think. Lenses are made in production runs, not continuously, so until current stock is mostly used up and they are rescheduled for another run we won't see any change.

And I disagree that the emphasis will be FF going forward. That is certainly where all the noise is at on this forum but sales-wise how many new FF cameras and lenses has Ricoh sold? Not many, and until the camera and new lenses are released and they see the sales numbers, APS-C is the only game in town. FF will be the focus of releases this year, and possibly next but after that I predict a number of APS-C only lenses coming out including a refresh of all the SDM lenses.

After they have a catalog of FF lenses, and some accurate sales numbers, then we will find out where things will go. As noted Pentax has a good professional APS-C camera / lens line I don't see them walking away from that to pin the company on a FF camera line.

[mcgregni]

I don't think a Pentax full frame and the aps-c flagships will be as far apart in size as the equivilent' canikons, because the mounts are the same for Pentax. So at the top end I don't think it will be size that will be the key determining factor of who picks which format ... What WILL be the determining factor, apart from level of affluence, is an interesting question.

I mean, we don't really know exactly who the target market is for the Pentax FF will be, do we? And who do Pentax think they will sell them to?

Will it divide the current Pentax enthusiast diehards (that's us lot), or draw more in from outside. It it does that then one success will lead to another and the demand for new high quality cropped DA glass will surely increase as the savvy realise what a great bargain aps-c has become.

[biz-engineer]

because the mounts are the same for Pentax.

How do you know that?