[Eyewanders]

I haven't noticed any significant "creep" personally in legacy glass prices yet but wonder if it's coming.
What I DO know is that as of 5 minutes ago there were 29 people viewing lens reviews for FA and older legacy glass...
in the DA section there were 8 people.

[pepperberry farm]

some people have already reported increases in FF-compatible film-era lenses...

[Adam]

I don't think there will be a substantial increase. Demand may have some effect, but prices will be kept in check by the superior performance of modern lenses. As the D FA lineup matures, I'm sure there will be some bargains to be had, even among formerly expensive AF lenses.

[Eyewanders]

some people have already reported increases in FF-compatible film-era lenses...

I did a sort of spot-check on the 'bay - not a huge effort by any means on my part, but I searched for a number of the favorites and didn't see much if any difference between what I'd paid and current sold prices or asking prices. Perhaps it's a bit too soon with the inventory backup of the K-1. Or perhaps Adam is right... however...

... but prices will be kept in check by the superior performance of modern lenses. As the D FA lineup matures, I'm sure there will be some bargains to be had, even among formerly expensive AF lenses.

... a blanket statement like that is gonna start a spiral.

[jatrax]

I don't think there will be a substantial increase. Demand may have some effect, but prices will be kept in check by the superior performance of modern lenses. As the D FA lineup matures, I'm sure there will be some bargains to be had, even among formerly expensive AF lenses.

+1. Ricoh is not dumb. When they look at ebay and see the prices for 40 year glass they know there is a market there. Look at the prices of the FA*28-70 and FA*80*200, prices trending down. WHy? Because a lot of the price premium was scarcity. If you need a 70-200 f/2.8 and the only game in town is the FA*80-200 then the price is driven by the demand/supply. But Ricoh has now released modern alternatives that are at least as good (better IMHO) so the old glass price has dropped. The same thing will happen to primes and other zooms as new glass is introduced.

[Adam]

+1. Ricoh is not dumb. When they look at ebay and see the prices for 40 year glass they know there is a market there. Look at the prices of the FA*28-70 and FA*80*200, prices trending down. WHy? Because a lot of the price premium was scarcity. If you need a 70-200 f/2.8 and the only game in town is the FA*80-200 then the price is driven by the demand/supply. But Ricoh has now released modern alternatives that are at least as good (better IMHO) so the old glass price has dropped. The same thing will happen to primes and other zooms as new glass is introduced.

Taking that example, the D FA* lens is about 1.5 stops ahead in terms of center sharpness (i.e. F4.5 with the FA* = F2.8 with the D FA*) and the FA* never catches up to the D FA* in the corners. A bit surprising perhaps, but it is what it is. Nobody pixel-peeped back then

[jatrax]

Taking that example, the D FA* lens is about 1.5 stops ahead in terms of center sharpness (i.e. F4.5 with the FA* = F2.8 with the D FA*) and the FA* never catches up to the D FA* in the corners. A bit surprising perhaps, but it is what it is. Nobody pixel-peeped back then

Ricoh also knew the bar they had to reach. If they wanted to sell new glass it has to be AT LEAST as good as the classic stuff. I've wanted an FA*28-70 for a long time, but they just seemed clunky. Glad I waited the DFA 24-70 is really nice. And selling at about a $500 premium over the FA* current price. But not that long ago the FA* was averaging over $1,000 used. I think the prices have adjusted, if you want new $1,250 with a used DFA at maybe $1,000 and the older FA* at around $750. The scarcity premium has disappeared.

[Eyewanders]

That's very true. I suppose I was thinking about the fixed focal options more than zooms. With the zooms there is no question a market exists.
I am not familiar with the current road map, but can I assume there is little else on the prime horizon?

[stevebrot]

I noticed a bump in vintage K-mount lens prices at about the time the K-1 was announced. Those prices have moderated, but the price range is broader than before.


Steve

[jatrax]

but can I assume there is little else on the prime horizon?

Latest rumor was 5 primes. But likely next year, though the original rumor was for 2016. I expect there will be strong demand for k-mount primes but when the new glass arrives prices will reach their level. Things only get crazy when there are no other options. When there are the market eventually adjusts to the relative merits of each product.

[GodsPetMonkey]

I don't think there will be a substantial increase. Demand may have some effect, but prices will be kept in check by the superior performance of modern lenses. As the D FA lineup matures, I'm sure there will be some bargains to be had, even among formerly expensive AF lenses.

I agree and would add that Pentaxians already knew what the good performing legacy lenses were, and this isn't changing with the coming of the K-1. The good glass on APS-C is still good glass of FF. It doesn't help that many of Pentax's legacy zooms are not great - modern zooms are worlds ahead of much of the film era, and if you compare the new DFA zooms to the high end FA zooms the difference is stark (who would pay near DFA 24-70 prices for a FA* 28-70, despite the FA* being premium glass of that era).

Primes are different, Pentax has long had a good lineup of excellent primes, but without a sudden influx of new users I suspect the prices already reflect the quality premium given the size of the market. And sadly for those garage sale resellers, the many 50mm f2 manual focus lenses are not sudden going to be worth $100 (sorry folks!).

There might be some movement with those lenses which didn't fill a niche on APS-C but do on FF (FA 20-35mm, I'm looking at you as the cheaper UWA option), but I'd expect them to be small movements that will level out before long anyway.

[monochrome]

Latest rumor was 5 primes. But likely next year, though the original rumor was for 2016. I expect there will be strong demand for k-mount primes but when the new glass arrives prices will reach their level. Things only get crazy when there are no other options. When there are the market eventually adjusts to the relative merits of each product.

I think the disparity between the 'story' primes and the 'average' primes will widen, but not because the good stuff rises. Given the oft-repeated claim of 24,000,000 lenses manufactured, I think it likely any sustained increase in prime prices will be met by supply. That might already be the case; while a few manual lenses (K50/1.2 for instance) are clearing significantly above (1.5 - 2x) what they were two years ago, most are down, and a few that once had cult status (K35/3.5, K28/3.5) are down 65%.

[Eyewanders]

Given the oft-repeated claim of 24,000,000 lenses manufactured, I think it likely any sustained increase in prime prices will be met by supply. That might already be the case; while a few manual lenses (K50/1.2, K30/2.8) are clearing on eBay and retailing at KEH significantly above (1.5 - 2x) what they were ten years ago most are down, and a few that had cult status (K35/3.5, K28/3.5) are down 65% in ten years.

That's exactly what I've been observing and I'm quite happy for it stay the same course. Though I do wonder if there may be some plates shifting as orders are filled and the fire spreads, because I must say, it seems to be spreading.

[ismaelg]

I have no evidence to support this but I think many will try to dump old glass hoping to get more money from the hype, but will actually increase the offer keeping prices down.
Again, just thinking out loud, no evidence in favor or against it.

Thanks,

[tvdtvdtvd]

Shhhhhh...., I'm about to take a bunch of common Taks, M & A 50/2's, third party 28mm and zooms, etc, to a local camera shop.
They don't usually have a lot of second hand K-mount gear, but last time I was in they had absolutely nothing and did comment
that it had been selling faster of late. That gave me incentive to finally cull out all the 'extras' I've acquired from lot purchases
over the past few years.

Seriously, I'm not expecting much. $10 a pop for each 50/2 and I'll be quite content. But I'll happily ride any hype that might
be cresting at the moment.