Thought I'd just chime in to say I've had no luck with catch-in-focus on the K5, with anything moving faster than walking pace - the resulting shot ends up focused on where the subject was about half a second before, and this is the case whether they're coming towards me or going away. It worked on the K200D though!
[Edit: it's just occurred to me to try CIF with a smaller aperture, I think I've only attempted it wider than f2.]
I'd suggest AF-C, centre point focus and and TAv mode with a medium-fast shutter speed and a low-medium aperture. Keep the subject in the centre, and the panning should produce most of the blur you need to separate the rider from the background. If you take the shot wider than you normally would you can crop later to frame the subject somewhere other than the centre, there's plenty of resolution to spare unless you want to print at A2 or something.
Most important, test, practice and fine-tune the technique before race day.