In looking at all of this, the K5 is wonderful (actually outstanding), however standing up and surveying the total picture, I believe that a pattern is emerging. Pentax has 3 distinct body product lines now in - entry, semi pro and medium format. All are inter-related and to a large degree mutually supporting. Consider this for a moment. Time line dates are extracted from the DXO listings.
- The entry level line across the last 3 releases is on a 12 month release cycle (Km, Kx, Kr).
- The semi-pro line across the last 3 releases is on a 16 month release cycle (K20, K7, K5).
- The medium format line - we do not know anything about yet, in that we only have a single release (645D) - I would guess that at least a 24 and probably 30 to 36 month cycle.
Also the phasing of the releases across the product lines. Using the K20 as a baseline:
- K7 is released with a full ergonomic body rework but essentially K20 performance,
- Kx is released with a near Km body but substantial ISO performance increase,
- 645D release based on K7 internals / hardware but (from the DXO numbers a substantial increase with a completely different sensor)
- Kr is released with the same Kx body, but a with user functional upgrades,
- K5 is released with the same K7 body, but a substantial ISO, DR and AF functional upgrade.
What this is telling me is that when Hoya took over, they initially laid out a multi-year upgrade plan across multiple product releases. Each of these product lines share to some degree a common core frame, that is extensible. They also identified specific functional upgrades with multiple milestones that successively built out to a targeted goal.
They seem to raise from one model to another (within a product line), some uniform level of capability, however target specific functionality. They also appear to have adopted Intel's famous or notorious (what ever your view may be) tic-toc cycle. One cycle is a major set of improvements (targeted functionalities) Km - Kx - Kr, where both Km and Kr were somewhat minor and the Kx was major. To a lessor extent we see this in the K20 - K7 - K5. The K5 is a major improvement, with the K7 a relatively minor (functionality) improvement but a major body upgrade.
The 645D we know is internally a K7 with a Kodak sensor (so I have read) and the Canadian Pentax Representative, indicated that its release was driven by the sensor's availability with the right capability.
What would the future hold given this emerging pattern? This is conjuncture on my part - a tea leaf reading exercise. I also believe that the Tic-Toc cycling is good to catch up, however - they will need to maintain some uniform level of improvement going forward or they will need to pay the price and do a catch up again. Might as well, maintain their functional teams across DR, ISO, AF etc., and invest in the 1 or 2 areas that are trailing - or research shows the greatest promise. Well let's see:
- Entry level - a new model announcement in 9/2011, featuring the K5's DR and ISO (guess)
- Semi-Pro Level - a new model announcement in 1/2012, featuring the best increase in DR and ISO available (maybe a major extension down to ISO 50 or 25?). I also think that AF is incomplete and there would be some work to catch up and complete this capability release.
- Medium Format - The K5 equaling of the 645D both surprising and not, given the 645D's ISO limitation. With the K5's wonderful performance numbers, I think the question is how long can Pentax wait for an upgrade - given the $9K price. At that price level, they do not want to make the users feel like they just wasted 9K, if they come out with an upgrade too soon. The competition has not been on the product release treadmill that Canon and Nikon have been on with the more consumer oriented products. On the other hand, given the K5's numbers, will the 645D targeted user group feel the need for better performance? So, I'll guess late 2011 or sometime during 2012.
From this vantage point it appears that Hoya's adult supervision (and check book) has pushed Pentax back into the game and beginning to become competitive and a real player - although its going to take a couple more years to really tell - as it all depends on follow through. Also, to some degree the out of the box thinking - the K7 body rework, the Kx performance and colors, the 645D release with its price performance, and now the K5's essentially besting the competition in the APS-c format and equaling pretty much the full frame format.
Now its just finishing the job (AF) and not falling off the treadmill.....
With having said all of that and with all the very apparent hard work that has gone into these product releases, the one thing that remains is Marketing. The very poor release coordination Pentax showed in Germany, is an indication of a very obvious long standing problem (at lease internationally - maybe not in Japan). So with engineering on track, just maybe the next area for senior management to focus on is marketing......