Nice capture Jim! I love reflection shots like this...
My order of preference of the three shots you posted is 3 -> 1 -> 2. #3 just seems the most natural on my screen, though there seems to be a bit too much luminance to the light greens/yellows bordering the water - their glow seems unnatural on my monitor (uncalibrated, so this could all be wrong). The aggressive tone adjustment in #1 has brought pattern noise out of hiding in the water at the bottom of the frame, so as flippedgazelle says, you need some NR there, but I think that that will introduce it's own problems (re. not matching look of the rest of the shot). I think the only way to get the exposure to look like #1 without artifacts would be to do a real HDR version (I immediatly though the shot was HDR when I opened the link) with two or three exposures bracketed and combined (check out
LR / Enfuse to do exposure blending right from lightroom.
I think the way I would treat this photo would be to start from about where you were in #2 and use Lr's graduated filter tool to apply a clarity overlay (and maybe boost the contrast too) to the upper portion in order to get a more contrasty look to the trees - the other two look like the blacks were clipped a bit too much for my taste.
Wow - that's a lot of nonsense I just wrote
. Just go shoot it again, bracketing three frames +/- 0.7ev (or 1ev - try both) and blend it with enfuse
the resulting TIFF will let you make a shot like #1 without the noise and a bit more subtlety in the tones (if you so desire)... I'll shut up now
...