Originally posted by MadMathMind
I don't quite get this. Can you explain it more? (Not being snotty. Really want to know.) [trimmed for brevity]
Well there are a few things missing from your calculations if this is to be a real world shooting scenario. First, your figures are correct for certain light levels, but they are a bit too optimistic. Basically you are calculating the exposure for an overcast day. If we assume "Sunny 16" conditions, which is where the rubber meets the road, f/8 at ISO 100 would require a shutter speed of about 1/500th or 1/4000th at f/2.8.
Secondly, I don't know if the AF540 is tuned a little better to the Pentax shutter curtains than my Metz 58 (it's possible), but in HSS mode the Metz, which has a full power GN of 58m, calculates a working GN of 2.4m (at 1/1500, f/2.8, ISO100, 105mm zoom position) on an overcast day, but that drops to 0.9m at 1/4000th on a clear, sunny day. The reason for this is that there is a lot of light that gets wasted bouncing off the back of the shutter curtains in HSS mode and never reaches the sensor as the shutter speed gets higher.
Now on the sub-sync side, if thing weren't complicated enough, many speedlight have long flash durations at full power (another reason I like to shoot at quarter power). If you close the shutter before the flash has completely discharged, you end up losing some of that GN horsepower. Manufacturers seldom publish the t.1 times, instead they quote the t.5 times to make their lights seem faster, but for a lot of speedlights t.1 is in the neighborhood of 1/125th at full power.
So I would amend your table to say (under Sunny 16 conditions, ISO 100):
1) No filter: f/16 at 1/125th (normal sub-sync flash)
2) No filter: f/2.8 at 1/4000th (HSS Flash)
3) 4.5 Stop ND filter: f/3.5 at 1/125th (normal sub-sync flash)
All this is before we add any light modifiers. Don't forget that at the end of the day we want this light to be attractive. So if we're trying to shoot a portrait, which is why most people choose to shoot at f/2.8, power snoots and better beamers are the wrong way to go, we need a softbox or an umbrella. So you can probably bank on a working flash-to-subject distance of less than a meter on a bright, sunny day if you're using just one flash in a softbox, whether you use HSS or ND filters.
So, if you have the flash equipment to do it, HSS is probably a slightly better way to go. Not only will your AF sensors work better without a strong ND filter in place, but there is also less risk of ghosting and flare associated with filters, especially multiple stacked filters.