[philbaum]

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-start.html

An interesting thing is happening. CIPA shipment numbers indicate "sales" to the US of DSLRs at or above last year's in the last two months, but retail sales numbers from cash registers in the US show DSLR sales down by double digits. That means that there likely is an inventory buildup happening in the US.

This is on top of an inventory that wasn't fully sold out for the last generation of cameras. At the moment, we have new D90, D3100, D5100, and D7000 cameras still available, for example. Yet shipments of more even more DSLRs are coming into the country. .....

But let's go back to that Canon forecast 2% cut in interchangeable lens camera sales. One of the companies that track US cash register sales reports a 20% decline year-to-year in the category for the past two months. See the problem? Yes, I know the US isn't the entire world camera market, but the US is a relatively healthy economy compared to Europe at present, and represents about a third of DSLR sales overall. If you have steep declines in the US, you'd have to make large increases in sales somewhere else. Where is that somewhere?

Last reports from CIPA that were discussed on photography forums were cipa shipments to the US. The above quote was from Thom Hogan's website that showed 20% drop in DSLR SALES in the last 2 months, on top of leftover inventory from 2012. Hogan predicts new sales of inventory, but if this drop continues, I would expect staff layoffs/furloughs, reduction in warranty service, etc. Would camera makers sell off inventory at below cost levels. Well maybe, if they were hurting bad enough. Nikon already had lens sales earlier this year, Pentax DSLRs seem at low price levels to me, whats in our future for this year??? We may well see a slowing of introductions of new models and lenses; continued production of older models. (just my opinion)

[kenafein]

I think the CEO from Sony has it right. He Cancelled the A78 because it didn't offer any compelling new features. A camera should be substantially improved over its predecessor, otherwise they should continue to provide value through firmware updates. Canon did this with the 7D. Fuji has been issuing firmware release after release for the X-Pro1(In the beginning many thought they'd wait for the X-Pro2). Sony put new cameras on hold with claims that something special is coming, something to really compete with, and one up, Canon and Nikon. We'll see if they succeed next year. I just think camera companies have to wow us now, or it's not worth the "upgrade".

[cali92rs]

Digital cameras got super hot....all the camera makers saturated the market with products. Now we are at the point where everyone (of course not everone, but the vast majority) of people that want a DSLR already have one. So we are now at the point where supply has far outpaced demand. So something has to give. They tried to develop a new market, MILCs, which may (or may not) supplant DSLRs, but we arent close to that point yet.

[cali92rs]

A camera should be substantially improved over its predecessor, otherwise they should continue to provide value through firmware updates. .

I predict that strirring up a hornet's nest

[kenafein]

I predict that strirring up a hornet's nest

Are you referring to the K-50? It illustrates my point, would anyone with a K-30 even consider the upgrade? Perhaps Pentax's problem is their cameras are already so full featured. I can see the K-50, simply because many people didn't like the design of the K-30, which is the reason why Samyang didn't offer the tilt-shift in PK mount, as it wouldn't be able to fully articulate.

Pentax has said that they would release a FF that provides something different than anything else out there. That spirit of innovation, at least in words, if not in deed, should be used for the rest of the lineup. AF and Flash aside though, I still think Pentax makes the best DSLR, certainly with the best ergonomics.

I guess it's a bit of an arms race though. If you don't release something new and someone else does, maybe they'll steal what few customers are left. They think they have to release, regardless.

[Aristophanes]

CIPA is shipments, not sales. My sources tell me sales are "not so good" and inventory is piling up. There are exceptions but I think most concur the market is saturated, there are too many models (m43 and NEX and Fuji I'm looking at you), and consumers are re-thinking their photography investments in the era of the smartphone, waiting for the 'connected camera' to arrive and spur upgrades.

[TER-OR]

Canon and Nikon are killing their own markets by releasing obsolete cameras with new labels...how much blood can you squeeze from a stone?
Of course even an "obsolete" camera can take fine images, meaning the upgrade path for general shooters is longer and longer. Enthusiasts can't carry the market alone, and flooding seems, at least to me, to at least drive the golden egg-laying goose into a coma.

[redrockcoulee]

Yes there comes a point when not everyone is needing the latest "upgrade". A two year old camera is still a good camera and I doubt that many "outgrow' their dslr every 18 months. Five years ago there were huge jumps in features and output but not so much now and most of us are not printing off huge prints. Companies will continue to make new models and I think they still will be incremental improvements but the market will be more either first time buyers, owners of several generation old cameras and those who need some thing with more featurs than their base level camera.

I do not think it is as much smartphones etc taking dslr's place as much as dslr owners not thinking they need to upgrade as often. Last month on holidays I did notice people using smartphones and tablets to take photos but p&s , bridge and dslrs seemed much more common. It is now a more mature market.

[Kunzite]

When will the panic start? When will the DSLR makers will run, full speed, straight to the caves? Well... never, I'd say. They are ignoring such panic-spreading "articles", and don't care about FUD. They wouldn't even help Thom&co raise page hits counters with tabloid titles.
The CIPA data is not even showing such a disastrous situation.

[philbaum]

Thanks for all the comments - we're all pretty much thinking the same thing.

When i bought my K5, i was thinking it was going to do me for awhile. And its been great, still is taking fine pictures and the ergonomics are great. I'm not convinced that the K5ii offers that great of upgrade so i bought a Nex camera which complements my K5 in a different way. One's more ergonomic with faster lenses, usually, and the other is more mobile and less intrusive for casual shooting.

Speed costs money in design, manufacturing and distribution. And worse yet, speed often has the end result of pushing bug correction into the consumer ownership stage, where fixes may or may not exist.

I would rather the camera mfr design tools with better features based not only on their ideas but trial use with selected consumers, a troubleshooting period, and then finally sales to the consumers. Looks like the camera bubble will finally force many mfr to slow down a bit.

[philbaum]

When will the panic start? When will the DSLR makers will run, full speed, straight to the caves? Well... never, I'd say. They are ignoring such panic-spreading "articles", and don't care about FUD. They wouldn't even help Thom&co raise page hits counters with tabloid titles.
The CIPA data is not even showing such a disastrous situation.

CIPA data is based on Shipments, And Shipment data is not as timely as sales data which shows what's happening on the sidewalk, not what is being sent on the freighter.

I've seen Hogan take a lot of criticism for being the first to say something unpopular, but he's been right a lot of the time. For example, he said that the value of current mirrorless cameras is not in line with their prices. Its not a message i liked, but i have to admit he's right. He never said we would have to run to the caves, he's modestly saying that there are going to be sales, and Canon's prediction of 2% less sales is not close. Thats not heading to the caves.

[Kunzite]

Not based, it is the shipments and production data; I'm well aware of this. Production and shipments would try to anticipate future sales, and would compensate for actual sales figures; but even sales have fluctuations which must be factored out.
I partially blame this "camera market crisis" from the first 4 months on this particularity. I believe camera makers - for some reasons - simply made too much in 2012; which means overstocking, and that they had to slow down in 2013. They were betting on a 34% increase in 2012 from 2011, which is a lot. But most people would take the 2012 figures as they are, instead of asking if those actually translated into sales.

And Thom Hogan now has several sites to maintain, and such articles are a sure way to get hits. They're not necessarily correct, though

[Aristophanes]

IN more recent history Japanese auto makers about 2006 started seeing a significant inventory build-up as the Yen rose etc. Did they do anything? Well, yes. They built even more cars to try and take market share away from other Japanese automakers. Then it all crashed in the 2008 fiscal crisis and they were forced to do actual layoffs which had no happened since the early 1980's in the Japanese auto industry.

into the breach came the Korean companies, Kia and Hyundai with well-received, full-featured new models. Suddenly the Japanese auto makers were trying to compete with the Koreans using older models with less specs selling at a higher price. Today about half the Japanese models have experienced up to a 30% decline in sales volumes while Kia and Hyundai (and Ford and VW) are the main beneficiaries.

So, we've sen this before recently, and in camera history before where Japanese manufacturers simply keep the products lines rolling almost because they don't know what else to do. Zombie banks and zombie product lines. Panic may be a strong word but I suspect 3 of the weaker players, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fuji, who all have imaging divisions deep in the red (yes, even Fuji), will be in trouble.

Will we see sales? They will hang on to MSRP and this anti-Amzon pricing scheme until their fingernails are bloody and then their creditors will tell them what to do. I'd say in 1 more quarter we see Canon and Nikon start a major inventory sell-off and their shares dropping just like the Yen is now. I would not be surprised to see Olympus and Panasonic gone in 2 years time. Fuji will scale back their efforts substantially, especially X-series lens development.

Pentax? Who knows? It's possible the colour scheme system is really designed to keep a just in time inventory model humming along to where demand meets supply with little inventory. That may be a skater, more profitable survival strategy than the boxes of D3100's I see at Wal-Mart.

[Pål Jensen]

Pentax? Who knows? It's possible the colour scheme system is really designed to keep a just in time inventory model humming along to where demand meets supply with little inventory. That may be a skater, more profitable survival strategy than the boxes of D3100's I see at Wal-Mart.

I believe Pentax have been doing on demand production for a long time now. I don't think they sit on large inventories.

[monochrome]

CIPA is shipments, not sales. My sources tell me sales are "not so good" and inventory is piling up. There are exceptions but I think most concur the market is saturated, there are too many models (m43 and NEX and Fuji I'm looking at you), and consumers are re-thinking their photography investments in the era of the smartphone, waiting for the 'connected camera' to arrive and spur upgrades.

When the Q Users Group had its conference call with Jim Malcolm April 30 he specifically and voluntarily said other manufacturers were experiencing an involuntary inventory build and that Pentax would not want to overproduce. (See the last paragraph of my call-summary post here). It will be interesting to see whether Pentax has been so silent because there is something disruptive on the horizon and they want the splash, or whether they really tactically have intentionally held back production.