Kirk Tuck on why camera sales are down 43% YoY

**monochrome** · 08-12-2013, 03:58 PM - **1 Like**

Has the camera bubble burst?

Here's an interesting BLOG post I found on MetaFilter. Kirk Tuck writes at The Visual Science Lab.

Why have cameras lost the magic? All the technical stuff is accomplished. Now we have to take photographs, and hobbyists aren't sure they want to. I certainly fit the description in the middle paragraphs.

It is an interesting read.

[EDIT: Link Fixed]

Last edited by monochrome; 08-12-2013 at 09:17 PM.

**boriscleto** · 08-12-2013, 04:26 PM

I get a bad link...

**tomwil** · 08-12-2013, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by boriscleto

I get a bad link...

Here is the correct link.

jamarley · 08-12-2013, 04:53 PM

Here it is:
The Visual Science Lab / Kirk Tuck: Has the bubble burst? Is that why camera sales in N. America are down by 43%?

I'm reading it now while trying to keep my eyes open (long day at the office

)

alamo5000 · 08-12-2013, 05:04 PM

Camera sales being down has little to nothing to do with anything photography related. Has everything to do with people being jobless and broke. There are probably at least a few million people out there that don't own a camera that otherwise would go buy one if they could just afford to do so. After a bachelor's degree (and student loans) and a master's degree (and more student loans) it's hard to afford anything on a minimum wage job....

krebsy75 · 08-12-2013, 05:11 PM

Nice find. I think the author is on to something. If anything, it drives home the precarious position "Pentax" is in right now.

I've got a marketing background and I'd struggle with positioning Pentax in the current market - even if a boatload of money was made available to me.

DSLRs represent quality which is a tough concept to sell. Convenience trumps quality 99.99999/100 times in the mind of the average consumer.

What can Pentax do to differentiate themselves? One idea would be a Pentax Q with an Android-driven user interface. It could feature several apps for imaging editing and sharing. I can see a market for this right now... as we speak (type).

Pentax, Ricoh, whoever... are you listening?

Uluru · 08-12-2013, 06:02 PM

Not only cameras. But cars, home appliances, too. I have recently designed a brochure and a guide through which Ford has launched a program for its suppliers, accompanied with face-to-face education and mutual learning, that will help them find other avenues of business survival rather than solely relying on automotive industry, which Ford predicts is a dying one.

We've reached the threshold of over saturation of the entire market, our roads, homes, TV programs, radio stations, etc. We are fed with so much content, edited and especially unedited, that what we see and read is losing any cohesion, point or meaning.

Now we face an evolutionary stage — collectively indeed — when we need to rethink our existential needs — what they really are? and what they should be? what is our future really consisted of? Because how our "everyday philosophies" and economies work, simply doesn't work. And camera industry example makes it clear as a photo.

Last edited by Uluru; 08-12-2013 at 06:08 PM.

calsan · 08-12-2013, 06:08 PM

My take on this is that Pentax (and for that matter, Fuji) had picked up on the "camera technology ennui" problem a while ago, that's where the K-01 and Q came in. Products designed to be 'not boring' and not target at the DPReview crew.

Uluru · 08-12-2013, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by calsan

My take on this is that Pentax (and for that matter, Fuji) had picked up on the "camera technology ennui" problem a while ago, that's where the K-01 and Q came in. Products designed to be 'not boring' and not target at the DPReview crew.

I think that too. Small batches of concepts that are quite different and unique, with limited runs so they are in constant demand rather than drawing losses. GR and K-01 fit that description perfectly. And then move on to next novel concept, with similarly limited run.

(I think many other industries should try similar approaches.)

Takumar55 · 08-12-2013, 07:33 PM

Point and shoots getting crushed is not too surprising. Phone cameras and software are getting so good that people are realizing there isn't much benefit to carrying around another device. Interchangeable lens cameras are harder to gauge - 18.5% or so sounds close enough to me that it could be economy-related or just cyclical.

But I agree to an extent with his general concept - isn't everyone just tired of seeing everyone else show off? It's just fatigue setting in - you care if it's a story close to you, but otherwise you only want to see real art. And honestly, phone cameras and software like Instagram and Facebook are so much better for telling stories than P&S cameras are.

I guess I see the market birfurcating into storytellers using phones/social media and hobbyists/professionals who are interested in the art and the process, and for whom better equipment is valuable.

Who needs a Coolpix or Optio (or whomever) these days, when you have a smartphone? This is exactly what happened to me. I abandoned my crappy P&S, first for a Sony RX100 and then for Pentax DSLRs. Others are going down to phones. It's swimming up or downstream, but not in the middle, for sure.

I think if we ever got to the point that you didn't need interchangeable lenses, things would really change. I've seen some concepts out there, and we may get there some day. But not yet, so it's still fun.

And I agree with the GR and K-01 comments - unique cameras using existing technologies in different formats. Easy to experiment with and do in short runs. The Q would not fall into that category, although I have no idea whether it is successful or not - though it has a lot of fans on this forum!

**boriscleto** · 08-12-2013, 07:45 PM

And yet I still hear "Oh, you have the camera that takes good pictures".

Takumar55 · 08-12-2013, 07:57 PM

Boy, taking a second look at the data (which you can find here: http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf), ILCs are actually way down in every geography but Japan. It's Japan, where ILC are up 30%, propping everyone else up. Americas is down 25%.

Not good.

Winder · 08-12-2013, 07:59 PM

1. There has been no real innovation in the industry for years. Sensors are slowly improving. AF is slowly improving. Companies are only offering incremental changes every couple of years (K5 to K-5II). My K-5 works just fine and Pentax is going to actually have to make a camera that is a big enough improvement to justify the upgrade. My expectations are pretty high.

2. I have spent more on glass the last couple of years than bodies. Pentax has lost out on all of my purchases for glass with the exception of the 31mm LTD. If Pentax wants to get more of my limited funds then they had better get back to making Limited lenses. I think bodies are to the point where glass is a better investment, so bodies might be down. How well are lenses selling? Sigma doesn't seem to be slowing down.

3. My next camera will probably be a FF mirrorless. I have no reason to rush to upgrade anything. I am waiting, and I think a lot of people are waiting. If Pentax gives me a stellar FF DSLR I will look at it, but at this point the market may have past them by. Two years ago I would have been first in line to buy one.

**monochrome** · 08-12-2013, 09:15 PM

Sorry about the link - there's apparently a lot of scripting going on the - my script blovker won't allow the blog page to load at all without manual intervention.

FWIW, my wife has switched from a smartphone to a Q/02 and a WiFi card for her blog / Instagram shots because the Q and zoom has has so much more flexibility and control.

@Takumar55 - she is indeed a story teller and illustrates with digital captures rather than pencil drawings as she had done all her life prior to WordPress. Her blog is much deeper than today's recipes.

Uluru · 08-12-2013, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by monochrome

Sorry about the link - there's apparently a lot of scripting going on the - my script blovker won't allow the blog page to load at all without manual intervention.

FWIW, my wife has switched from a smartphone to a Q/02 and a WiFi card for her blog / Instagram shots because the Q and zoom has has so much more flexibility and control.

@Takumar55 - she is indeed a story teller and illustrates with digital captures rather than pencil drawings as she had done all her life prior to WordPress. Her blog is much deeper than today's recipes.

Yep, this is my case too. iPhone is just an extra weight in my pocket, so now it is in my bag, and Q is in my pocket. iPhone is fine in a sunny day, but absolutely no control over shooting parameters. It's something like commuting using
a) predestined routes and zero control over driver in a public transport, or,
b) driving your own small, smart, fuel-efficient car.

Plus, on an iPhone images share space with music, contacts, apps, etc. Managing all that is crazy, always some lack of space, erase this or that, take note of everything, waste my time more and more . Well, I simply don't want to waste my time and resources like that. iPhone's offers me a life full of demands, endless checklists, compromises and endless data management I'm personally sick of. Plus, I don't want, when taking a photo and enjoying the moment, someone interrupts me with a damned call. )!*@&E(!*@&$!

For a person of any discerning visual abilities, and who wants peace of mind, smallish camera like the Q can do so much more than a smartphone. And take the pressure away.

08-12-2013, 03:58 PM - 1 Like	#1
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	Kirk Tuck on why camera sales are down 43% YoY Has the camera bubble burst? Here's an interesting BLOG post I found on MetaFilter. Kirk Tuck writes at The Visual Science Lab. Why have cameras lost the magic? All the technical stuff is accomplished. Now we have to take photographs, and hobbyists aren't sure they want to. I certainly fit the description in the middle paragraphs. It is an interesting read. [EDIT: Link Fixed] Last edited by monochrome; 08-12-2013 at 09:17 PM.

08-12-2013, 04:48 PM	#3
tomwil Site Supporter Join Date: May 2009 Location: Maryland USA Posts: 778	Originally posted by boriscleto I get a bad link... Here is the correct link. Last edited by tomwil; 08-12-2013 at 05:11 PM. Reason: Take out unneeded remark.

08-12-2013, 05:11 PM	#6
krebsy75 Veteran Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Chester County, Pa. Posts: 804	Nice find. I think the author is on to something. If anything, it drives home the precarious position "Pentax" is in right now. I've got a marketing background and I'd struggle with positioning Pentax in the current market - even if a boatload of money was made available to me. DSLRs represent quality which is a tough concept to sell. Convenience trumps quality 99.99999/100 times in the mind of the average consumer. What can Pentax do to differentiate themselves? One idea would be a Pentax Q with an Android-driven user interface. It could feature several apps for imaging editing and sharing. I can see a market for this right now... as we speak (type). Pentax, Ricoh, whoever... are you listening? Last edited by krebsy75; 08-12-2013 at 05:33 PM.

08-12-2013, 07:33 PM	#10
Takumar55 Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 120	Point and shoots getting crushed is not too surprising. Phone cameras and software are getting so good that people are realizing there isn't much benefit to carrying around another device. Interchangeable lens cameras are harder to gauge - 18.5% or so sounds close enough to me that it could be economy-related or just cyclical. But I agree to an extent with his general concept - isn't everyone just tired of seeing everyone else show off? It's just fatigue setting in - you care if it's a story close to you, but otherwise you only want to see real art. And honestly, phone cameras and software like Instagram and Facebook are so much better for telling stories than P&S cameras are. I guess I see the market birfurcating into storytellers using phones/social media and hobbyists/professionals who are interested in the art and the process, and for whom better equipment is valuable. Who needs a Coolpix or Optio (or whomever) these days, when you have a smartphone? This is exactly what happened to me. I abandoned my crappy P&S, first for a Sony RX100 and then for Pentax DSLRs. Others are going down to phones. It's swimming up or downstream, but not in the middle, for sure. I think if we ever got to the point that you didn't need interchangeable lenses, things would really change. I've seen some concepts out there, and we may get there some day. But not yet, so it's still fun. And I agree with the GR and K-01 comments - unique cameras using existing technologies in different formats. Easy to experiment with and do in short runs. The Q would not fall into that category, although I have no idea whether it is successful or not - though it has a lot of fans on this forum! Last edited by Takumar55; 08-12-2013 at 07:42 PM.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Kirk Tuck recently got a K-01 and would like to get a case of them!!!	theperception2008	Pentax Mirrorless Cameras	25	04-21-2014 09:21 PM
Where are the after Christmas Sales?	Heelers	General Talk	3	12-27-2012 06:36 AM
Why are camera sensors still rectangular?	m88k	General Talk	15	10-21-2010 06:12 PM
Why are pentax camera prices falling?	justtakingpics	Pentax News and Rumors	43	05-25-2010 11:24 AM
Question Pentax Forum website slowed down on my PC Why?	jpzk	Site Suggestions and Help	11	02-22-2010 08:53 AM

08-12-2013, 04:26 PM	#2
boriscleto Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: North Syracuse, NY Photos: Gallery Posts: 16,475	I get a bad link...

08-12-2013, 04:53 PM	#4
jamarley Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: New Jersey Photos: Gallery Posts: 409	Here it is: The Visual Science Lab / Kirk Tuck: Has the bubble burst? Is that why camera sales in N. America are down by 43%? I'm reading it now while trying to keep my eyes open (long day at the office )

08-12-2013, 05:04 PM	#5
alamo5000 Pentaxian Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,962	Camera sales being down has little to nothing to do with anything photography related. Has everything to do with people being jobless and broke. There are probably at least a few million people out there that don't own a camera that otherwise would go buy one if they could just afford to do so. After a bachelor's degree (and student loans) and a master's degree (and more student loans) it's hard to afford anything on a minimum wage job....

08-12-2013, 06:02 PM	#7
Uluru Banned Join Date: May 2010 Location: Back to my Walkabout Creek Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,535	Not only cameras. But cars, home appliances, too. I have recently designed a brochure and a guide through which Ford has launched a program for its suppliers, accompanied with face-to-face education and mutual learning, that will help them find other avenues of business survival rather than solely relying on automotive industry, which Ford predicts is a dying one. We've reached the threshold of over saturation of the entire market, our roads, homes, TV programs, radio stations, etc. We are fed with so much content, edited and especially unedited, that what we see and read is losing any cohesion, point or meaning. Now we face an evolutionary stage — collectively indeed — when we need to rethink our existential needs — what they really are? and what they should be? what is our future really consisted of? Because how our "everyday philosophies" and economies work, simply doesn't work. And camera industry example makes it clear as a photo. Last edited by Uluru; 08-12-2013 at 06:08 PM.

08-12-2013, 06:08 PM	#8
calsan Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Perth, Australia Photos: Gallery Posts: 1,548	My take on this is that Pentax (and for that matter, Fuji) had picked up on the "camera technology ennui" problem a while ago, that's where the K-01 and Q came in. Products designed to be 'not boring' and not target at the DPReview crew.

08-12-2013, 06:12 PM	#9
Uluru Banned Join Date: May 2010 Location: Back to my Walkabout Creek Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,535	Originally posted by calsan My take on this is that Pentax (and for that matter, Fuji) had picked up on the "camera technology ennui" problem a while ago, that's where the K-01 and Q came in. Products designed to be 'not boring' and not target at the DPReview crew. I think that too. Small batches of concepts that are quite different and unique, with limited runs so they are in constant demand rather than drawing losses. GR and K-01 fit that description perfectly. And then move on to next novel concept, with similarly limited run. (I think many other industries should try similar approaches.)

08-12-2013, 07:45 PM	#11
boriscleto Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: North Syracuse, NY Photos: Gallery Posts: 16,475	And yet I still hear "Oh, you have the camera that takes good pictures".

08-12-2013, 07:57 PM	#12
Takumar55 Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 120	Boy, taking a second look at the data (which you can find here: http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf), ILCs are actually way down in every geography but Japan. It's Japan, where ILC are up 30%, propping everyone else up. Americas is down 25%. Not good.

08-12-2013, 07:59 PM	#13
Winder Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Tennessee Posts: 6,617	1. There has been no real innovation in the industry for years. Sensors are slowly improving. AF is slowly improving. Companies are only offering incremental changes every couple of years (K5 to K-5II). My K-5 works just fine and Pentax is going to actually have to make a camera that is a big enough improvement to justify the upgrade. My expectations are pretty high. 2. I have spent more on glass the last couple of years than bodies. Pentax has lost out on all of my purchases for glass with the exception of the 31mm LTD. If Pentax wants to get more of my limited funds then they had better get back to making Limited lenses. I think bodies are to the point where glass is a better investment, so bodies might be down. How well are lenses selling? Sigma doesn't seem to be slowing down. 3. My next camera will probably be a FF mirrorless. I have no reason to rush to upgrade anything. I am waiting, and I think a lot of people are waiting. If Pentax gives me a stellar FF DSLR I will look at it, but at this point the market may have past them by. Two years ago I would have been first in line to buy one.

08-12-2013, 09:15 PM	#14
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276 Original Poster	Sorry about the link - there's apparently a lot of scripting going on the - my script blovker won't allow the blog page to load at all without manual intervention. FWIW, my wife has switched from a smartphone to a Q/02 and a WiFi card for her blog / Instagram shots because the Q and zoom has has so much more flexibility and control. @Takumar55 - she is indeed a story teller and illustrates with digital captures rather than pencil drawings as she had done all her life prior to WordPress. Her blog is much deeper than today's recipes.

08-12-2013, 10:35 PM	#15
Uluru Banned Join Date: May 2010 Location: Back to my Walkabout Creek Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 2,535	Originally posted by monochrome Sorry about the link - there's apparently a lot of scripting going on the - my script blovker won't allow the blog page to load at all without manual intervention. FWIW, my wife has switched from a smartphone to a Q/02 and a WiFi card for her blog / Instagram shots because the Q and zoom has has so much more flexibility and control. @Takumar55 - she is indeed a story teller and illustrates with digital captures rather than pencil drawings as she had done all her life prior to WordPress. Her blog is much deeper than today's recipes. Yep, this is my case too. iPhone is just an extra weight in my pocket, so now it is in my bag, and Q is in my pocket. iPhone is fine in a sunny day, but absolutely no control over shooting parameters. It's something like commuting using a) predestined routes and zero control over driver in a public transport, or, b) driving your own small, smart, fuel-efficient car. Plus, on an iPhone images share space with music, contacts, apps, etc. Managing all that is crazy, always some lack of space, erase this or that, take note of everything, waste my time more and more . Well, I simply don't want to waste my time and resources like that. iPhone's offers me a life full of demands, endless checklists, compromises and endless data management I'm personally sick of. Plus, I don't want, when taking a photo and enjoying the moment, someone interrupts me with a damned call. )!@&E(!@&$! For a person of any discerning visual abilities, and who wants peace of mind, smallish camera like the Q can do so much more than a smartphone. And take the pressure away.