Originally posted by normhead Only if people actually prefer FF over APS-c. The flaw in your logic that just won't go away. If the first argument in your logic is flawed, everything that follows is false. Your argument that Pentax cannot make a go of it without an FF is just too crazy to even contemplate. Your argument in support of this is well nothing... you just make up S%$t.
You seem to relate all this to a preference over sensor size as if comparing an SUV to a sports car. In reality, the difference i cameras and features is equal and the only defining feature difference is/will be sensor size.
FF is eating APS-C price points. So if you are not making FF your competitor who is is both taking money that used to be yours and taking long-term customers.
Putting the preference for sensor size ahead of what one can get at a price point is simply wrong under these circumstances and in most business models.
Almost 60 million dedicated cameras are sold every year. It's a commodity market. This is retail product from household disposable incomes; pricing is everything.
Originally posted by normhead It's equally possible that if Pentax sinks a lot of money into FF, it'll end up sucking up all their resources for no return. Thanks to the D800 there are not a lot of FF users out there waiting for a camera. If I had any desire to own an FF camera, I would have bought a D800 last year. Because real photographers, weigh functionality and cost, brand doesn't make a lot of difference to them.
You are kidding, right?
The whole point of proprietary lens mounts is to lock in your customers to the drug of buying new, better, longer, wider, faster, zoomier, glass.
It makes zero difference your "desire" for an FF camera. All that matters in the bigger, commodity market is what camera is available at your price point. If FF takes away APS-C's high-end that will leave Pentax with no high-end APS-C customers, and eventually no high-end APS-C cameras, and eventually no customers.
By far the biggest knock against FF cameras is size. Yet it is a fractured camera market and many don't mind or even prefer larger cameras. An astounding # of enthusiasts have both large FF's and smaller mirrorless. But if you are Pentax, you have none of that market, do you?
Style. Preference. it's all voodoo. That's adspeak. This is all about raw economics.
I do agree that Pentax takes a huge risk going FF. Mostly because of the lens ramp-up. Not with the body. But that risk must be balanced against losing massive chunks (as in over 50%) of the revenue stream as FF from the competition slides down into APS-C territory.
IMO the separation between FF and APS-C will eventually be only a single price point, of about $500. In a few years APS-C will not exist above $1,000. The FF sensor price curve will eliminate that possibility, especially if the Sony/Canon sensor duopoly is broken. All those customers with more than $1,000 in their pockets for a camera body will be buying FF. Rumour has it that Canon is looking into even larger sensors. Why? To preserve the 1D price point and keep revenues and share prices up.
All I am doing is matching household buying power to what the market can provide at a historic price. A guy with $1,500 for a camera is going to buy the most IQ and largest sensor for that money regardless of "preference". If they preferred something they would budget less, but you know what? People who have $1500 to spend, spend $1500!!! If they have $60k to spend on a car they'll get an Acura SUV and not a Mazda5 even if all they really need is a Mazda5. That is how consumer choice works and why companies need to be active at multiple price points to survive.
The question is not if Pentax gets into FF. It is when. To me, this ad structure is laying the foundation. This ad clearly distinguishes between APS-C and FF product lines. That tells me they are putting one foot in the risk pool by even going there, inviting comparison. If you are happy with APS-C, then great. You will get cheaper product.