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11-06-2013, 07:23 AM   #1
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"Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”

Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years" » EOSHD.com
“With few exceptions (Sony being the most notable), most companies seem to be marking time. The transition to mirrorless apparently caught the market leaders, Nikon and Canon, a bit by surprise. The Canon M and Nikon 1 didn’t quite set the pace for everyone else, and indeed these lackluster offerings have left a gap which Sony is now driving a truck through. Indeed, a truck loaded with some quite innovative new cameras. Fujifilm and Olympus are pushing hard to fill the gap as well, and Panasonic follows.

“Over-all dealers whom I spoke with report that sales are down, and have been for a few years now. Replacement and upgrade sales are in the doldrums. Buyers aren’t terribly motivated, and lack of true innovation by most players seems to be at the heart of the problem. The still slow economy and economic uncertainty doesn’t help much either.”

Some food for thought...

11-06-2013, 07:26 AM   #2
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What exactly is a "consumer" DSLR?
11-06-2013, 07:33 AM   #3
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Didn't we already have a 20 page thread about this article?
11-06-2013, 07:36 AM   #4
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This kind of stuff is really obnoxious. camera sales are down for a lot of different reasons, but little of it has anything to do with Sony.. there is no "pace". What there is, is camera companies with established market share, and companies with a slightly different product establishing a place for a different offering. That in no way implies that that product in any way will ever exceed the number of sales for the traditional makers. Sony has gone to a different model, because they struck going up against the traditional companies on their own turf. So now they are trying to define new turf. And some people will go for new and different, just because it's new and different. That in no way assumes that the majority of camera buyers will ever go that route, although Sony would sure like it if a lot of people started drinking the Sony cool aid.


Last edited by normhead; 11-06-2013 at 07:44 AM.
11-06-2013, 07:36 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by shaX 07 Quote
Didn't we already have a 20 page thread about this article?
First time I see it.... I find it more interesting than the constant FF bickering going on.... feel free to ignore it, or ask the mods to remove if you feel like it...
11-06-2013, 07:44 AM   #6
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"Finally companies will have to get innovative, putting more weight behind enthusiast and pro orientated camera line-ups.

Consumer digital camera sales are down 36% this year.

Why?
I think there are four reasons.

Smartphones
Satisfaction with current DSLRs
Lack of innovate products
Global economic downturn"

Jungle law - only the toughest will survive...

"The main problem for the Japanese camera makers though, is their continued lack of focus on software.

The world has moved from a place where hardware was the dominant factor to where software is now more important. All the remarkable product features on an iPhone that consumers love are driven by innovative software systems. Indeed Facebook is software. Twitter is software. The entire internet is a network of software. The Japanese software culture in terms of cameras still seems to be stuck at the DOS command promp"
11-06-2013, 07:46 AM   #7
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It kind of seems like the PC arms race a while ago. Every few months Intel would have a faster Pentium 3, then Pentium 4, then it was slower but dual core, 4 core, now 8 core, video on chip, etc. I think for enthusiasts, advancements in computers have tapered off enough to a point where frequent upgrades don't make sense. When I was in high school, I remember having to upgrade video cards all the time to keep up with gaming. Nowadays, I don't game much, but my 4 year old ATI card keeps up just fine. Perhaps it's the same with DSLRs. For family snaphsots and average travel work, even about 10-12 MP is more than enough to make great looking prints and web photos after some cropping. If someone bought a nice Pentax 5 years ago that works well for them, the DSLR 'consumer', what incentive do they have to upgrade? If they can't tell a difference looking online or at small prints, and it costs more, takes up more hard drive space, and take more computing power to edit, why bother?

So, new DSLR sales might be dropping, but I think the used market is stronger, and more people are hanging on to digital cameras longer.

11-06-2013, 08:04 AM   #8
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My wife is a consumer. My wife was once was an enthusiast, but she got tired of the hassle. My wife has never owned a single lens reflex camera. Ever. She always used an elderly TLR. Or my XA. Or some kind of AF compact.

I have had SLR's forever. She once whined that she wanted a really cool camera like I had, too. I handed her the K2DMD and K50/1.4 I was playing with - after ten minutes she said she wanted simpler. I went to my closet and brought her an Optio A40 I hadn't even opened yet and said, "Happy Birthday (early)." Got a kiss and she never said she knew.

I just gave her a deal Q, 02 and 03 (which she says is an absolute blast) and an Eye-Fi Mobi. She uses my 06 and 01 when we're out together (or she asks for them). Actually, Q has been the catalyst we were looking for to go out and do something together now that all our children are established outside our home.

My wife is the consumer the author writes about. The premise is flawed from the outset because there is no such thing as a consumer SLR. There's a yuppie SLR, sure. But not a consumer SLR. So K-500 and maybe K-50 might become K-002 and K-02. Or maybe Q7 and line extensions are Ricoh sneaking up on the market with a really fun, totally unassuming but surprisingly competent mirrorless ILC system that consumers actually buy. I'll take Practical Pentax over Snobby Sony every day.

Last edited by monochrome; 11-06-2013 at 11:05 AM.
11-06-2013, 08:20 AM   #9
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Add to the whole analysis, the very standard consummer reaction once they bought the DSLR :"how can i take a picture ? there is way to much button ... the manual is way to big for me to read it ... what ? i have to transfer my picture to a computer ?! Let's use my smartphone, it's way smarter and simpler !"
11-06-2013, 08:21 AM   #10
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I read somewhere the world would go down the drain in less than 5 years--we should be fine. Although it seems many have a inexhaustible capacity to worry (or maybe an insatiable urge to worry).
11-06-2013, 08:27 AM   #11
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SLRs are not going away -- certainly not in five years. However their sales are going to plateau and drop. There are not new features that pull people into buying them. Over the last ten years there have been amazing improvements in high iso ability, speed of processing, video, etc. But at this point, when you have a 24 megapixel D5200 and Nikon releases a D5300 that adds connectivity and little else, how much urge do you have to buy it?

Over the years, most people have tended to skip a generation or two of new cameras. going from a K10 to a K5 to a K3 (or something like that). I see people skipping more generations of cameras since what they have now satisfies what they need. Adobe has really felt this from a software front and has come up with Creative Cloud as a way of squeezing more pennies out of their users. Not sure what camera makers can come up with to do the same.
11-06-2013, 08:34 AM   #12
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Digital - Single - Lens - Reflex cameras give instant optical feedback of things you take pictures of.
Until humans don't need to see through things to take pictures, I see little chance of DSLRs going away.

Electronic View finders?
The mirrors that allow the Reflex of the image?
The glass for the prisms that make it come together?

When optical physics and humans change, is when DSLRs will disappear.

A shake-up of the Canikony dynasty? Sure, but that is different from DSLRs going away.

Now, about the "Consumer DSLR" if we are talking about a "market segment", sure, I can see that happening.

Last edited by LaurenOE; 11-06-2013 at 08:56 AM.
11-06-2013, 08:41 AM   #13
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QuoteQuote:
I think there are four reasons.

Smartphones
Satisfaction with current DSLRs
Lack of innovate products
Global economic downturn
So, let's see the four reasons:
(1) Hard to imagine anyone both satisfied with using a smartphone's camera and having the slightest interest in a dslr. Why would anyone even consider buying a dslr if his smartphone was good enough for him?
(2) This seems to be the only substantial reason in the set. Yes, there is an innovation plateau, but PC's have reached a similar plateau, and I don't think they're going away. One can't do serious work on a tablet. Plus, entry level DSLR's can still be made smaller and cheaper. And, after all, innovation is called innovation because it is about bringing into existence something new. Who knows what kind of new technology will be integrated into dslr's 5 years from now?
(3) This is just a restatement of reason #2.
(4) This reason is circumstantial and general; not specific to the dslr market.

Last edited by causey; 11-06-2013 at 08:51 AM.
11-06-2013, 09:03 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by causey Quote
So, let's see the four reasons:
(1) Hard to imagine anyone both satisfied with using a smartphone's camera and having the slightest interest in a dslr. Why would anyone even consider buying a dslr if his smartphone was good enough for him?
(2) This seems to be the only substantial reason in the set. Yes, there is an innovation plateau, but PC's have reached a similar plateau, and I don't think they're going away. One can't do serious work on a tablet. Plus, entry level DSLR's can still be made smaller and cheaper. And, after all, innovation is called innovation because it is about bringing into existence something new. Who knows what kind of new technology will be integrated into dslr's 5 years from now?
(3) This is just a restatement of reason #2.
(4) This reason is circumstantial and general; not specific to the dslr market.
Number 2 seems the reason, though. Even with regard to PCs, if you don't do a lot of video editing or photo editing, there is no particular reason to update you computer more often than every three years. And for many people who mainly do internet stuff/games, a tablet/game console combo satisfies all of their needs -- wouldn't satisfy mine, but I do a lot of photo editing and some video editing and need a faster machine.
11-06-2013, 09:41 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by shaX 07 Quote
Didn't we already have a 20 page thread about this article?
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/76-non-pentax-cameras-canon-nikon-etc/240...dead-soon.html
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