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11-29-2013, 02:47 PM   #1
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Future of DSLR

After being a passive reader to PF for some time, I decided to start my first thread rather unconventionally

As you might know, there is this discussion whether DSLRs and, maybe, other ILCs will disappear in a couple of years, e.g. here:
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/137-photographic-industry-professionals/2...d-5-years.html

I just stumbled across a very interesting article which, kind of, states quite the opposite:

System cameras set to dominate market for first time | Amateur Photographer

A pretty interesting line:

QuoteQuote:
Gill added: ‘And here's the interesting part: as consumers' experience of capturing mobile photos develops, their interest in photography is likely to increase.
‘Now we are seeing a growing base of photo enthusiasts, especially in less-developed countries, who desire a high-end digital camera with advanced features such as larger optical zooms and bigger image sensors.
To summarize:

1) ILCs are the only part of the camera market actually seeing groth
2) ILC means DSLR in 80% of all cases

and
3) Smartphones may be killing compact cameras, but more important: they are increasing the interest of people in photography - which makes them buy a DSLR

So: The sky might not be falling at all. What do you think about the theory on the smartphones?

11-29-2013, 05:18 PM   #2
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"For the first time interchangeable-lens cameras will make up more than half the value of digital cameras shipped this year, according to an industry report"

Because the compact camera market is dying, it only makes sense that the digital cameras that will be left to sell would be ILC's. However, the question is whether as cameraphone tech keeps increasing whether most people would care to step up to a DSLR..
11-29-2013, 05:21 PM   #3
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They're killing compact pocket cameras. I don't bother to bring a pocket camera because I have my cell phone at all times. Even when I have my Slr with me, I will take snaps on my phone to put on Facebook.
11-29-2013, 05:21 PM   #4
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I was taking pictures with my camera phone today (Samsung Galaxy S3) and found myself getting extremely frustrated. Couldn't get a focus,and couldn't get good exposure even with flash. It made me dislike taking pics with it and I wanted my DSLR.

I really don't see camera phones eliminating DSLRs even for beginner type folks. I only see people sticking with their phones if they were not interested in carrying around something bigger to begin with.

11-29-2013, 06:47 PM   #5
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I think the cameras in mobile phones will continue to improve to the point that they are as good as a decent compact camera. A good camera in a phone will surely be a desirable feature.

So I think the compact camera market is likely to diminish. I agree that this is not bad for DSLRs. I would have thought we will instead see more beginner (cheaper) oriented DSLRs sales which will follow on to generate higher end cameras (upgrade path).
11-29-2013, 07:32 PM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by kiwi_jono Quote
I think the cameras in mobile phones will continue to improve to the point that they are as good as a decent compact camera. A good camera in a phone will surely be a desirable feature.

So I think the compact camera market is likely to diminish. I agree that this is not bad for DSLRs. I would have thought we will instead see more beginner (cheaper) oriented DSLRs sales which will follow on to generate higher end cameras (upgrade path).
You said it way better than I did. That's pretty much what I mean. I already have my phone with me. I don't want or need to carry a compact digicam. Samsung is doing some nice stuff on their phone cameras. I think Nokia is also putting out a good bit of progress.
11-29-2013, 08:15 PM   #7
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I've read a couple of projections (sorry, I don't remember where) that In the coming years small, mirrorless system cameras will largely supplant DSLRS except in very high-end applications. Such predictions may - of course - be total baloney, but DSLRs do carry over much of the mechanical design of their film predecssors and are, to some extent, hybrids combining characteristics of two technologically divergent eras, rather like the steam/sail ships of the mid 19th century, which - within a few years - gave way to purely steam (then oil-burning) designs.

By the late 1800s, the handwriting was on the wall for sail-powered merchant and warships and European shipping was busy adjusting to the technological and economic discontinuity of powered propulsion. However, during this period and prior to the building of the Panama Canal, American ship builders focused on designing ever faster sailing ships (with little cargo capacity but lots of speed) to carry gold-hungry prospectors from the East Coast to California. As a result, American ship builders largely missed the wave of the future, and American merchant ship construction never became what it could have been (military construction is another matter). Nowadays, failing to identify, understand and exploit such a discontinuity is called the Clipper Ship Syndrome.

Although I continue to buy and enjoy Pentax DSLRs, I sometimes wonder if the camera companies that are still focusing major resources on the development of DSLRs are exhibiting the Clipper Ship Syndrome. Time will tell - my grandkids will either be using DSLRs or looking at them in museums, perhaps displayed alongside the Sony Walkman.

Jer
11-29-2013, 09:23 PM   #8
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Some math based on the linked article: Overall digital camera market declined 24% in 2013, so if 2012 represented 100%, 2013 represents only 76% in units. ILS cameras (of which DSLRs are 80% of the global market according to this article) were 20% of 2012 total units and now is 25% of a total that is only 76% of 2012. Which means the number of ILS cameras sold in 2013 would have only been 19% of the total cameras sold in 2012. This matches other graphs showing that DLSR sales are flat, and non-interchangeable lens digital camera sales are falling rapidly.

Now that high quality camera bodies are less expensive than some high quality lenses, and camera technology continues to advance more than lens technology, it would be reasonable to assume that the market for interchangeable lenses is declining. A flat market for ILS camera bodies suggests that the number of new buyers is declining, because some percentage of current ILS camera owners are upgrading their camera bodies. Neither of these trends suggest that the market for ILS bodies and lenses is worth investing in for manufacturers, which means that those of us who do buy these products will have less to choose from in the future. I don't blame that on embedded cameras in mobile devices, because they serve a very different market, but it isn't very encouraging in my books.

11-29-2013, 09:38 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by dnak Quote
After being a passive reader to PF for some time, I decided to start my first thread rather unconventionally

As you might know, there is this discussion whether DSLRs and, maybe, other ILCs will disappear in a couple of years, e.g. here:
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/137-photographic-industry-professionals/2...d-5-years.html

I just stumbled across a very interesting article which, kind of, states quite the opposite:

System cameras set to dominate market for first time | Amateur Photographer

A pretty interesting line:



To summarize:

1) ILCs are the only part of the camera market actually seeing groth
2) ILC means DSLR in 80% of all cases

and
3) Smartphones may be killing compact cameras, but more important: they are increasing the interest of people in photography - which makes them buy a DSLR

So: The sky might not be falling at all. What do you think about the theory on the smartphones?
Medium format has survived dispite huge growth in dslr sales. Camera phones are hugely popular. Compact cameras seem to be caught between the camera phone and mirrorless marketplace. There's lots of movement in the marketplace - pro, enthusiast, casual and snapshot.

I'm a long-time dslr shooter (Nikon/Canon) - bought a mirrorless - then sold it recently to purchase a K3. Not sure what all this means but I'm not thinking mirrorless is ready to take over the dslr market - and expect the dslr market will develop technology the mirrorless market won't be able to offer.
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