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07-30-2014, 09:53 AM   #1
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Thom Hogan's Photokina Predictions

The Photokina Prognosis | byThom | Thom Hogan

Regarding DSLRs:

How about Pentax and Sony? I’m not hearing anything about a new Pentax DSLR to be released. Indeed, the recent K-3 Prestige Edition seems to be a good indicator that there’s no real camera being readied soon.

Regarding Mirrorless:

Pentax is a wild card. I’d like to think that someone at Ricoh/Pentax has looked around and decided that they have no mainstream presence outside of Japan any more, and that their mirrorless options basically aren’t visible outside of Japan. You’d also think they’d look at their lenses and see all those pancakes, and look at their competitors and see that they’re mostly doing DSLR-like iterations now. Funny thing, they’ve had all the pieces (including an EVF) for some time, they just haven’t put them together usefully. I think we’ll learn at this year’s Photokina exactly what Ricoh’s ambition in cameras really is. New mirrorless system that’s competitive: they’re in it to win it. Mild iterations of things they’ve been doing: it’s a hobby and will always be a hobby. I’m betting hobby and that they just refresh the Q with yet another number.

07-30-2014, 10:48 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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I'm betting that Thom is just pulling this out of his ass...
07-30-2014, 12:01 PM   #3
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Except he might be right about Ricoh just 'refreshing' the Q with a new number and design.

??????????PENTAX Q2 ????? - ????info

I'd be very surprised to see a new DSLR or new mirrorless.

Last edited by Steve.Ledger; 08-10-2014 at 10:12 PM.
07-30-2014, 12:54 PM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Steve.Ledger Quote
I'd be very surprised to see a new DSLR or new mirrorless.
That picture looks like a new mirrorless to me!

07-30-2014, 03:20 PM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
I'm betting that Thom is just pulling this out of his ass...
Why? He gave you the premises. And he gave you a logical deduction. That's pretty much up front in my book. He didn't specifically mention how long Ricoh Imaging has owned the Pentax brand now, but for us, did he have to? It IS time that Ricoh put their cards on the table. That's what I suggested back in the "K60" speculations thread... and two or three folks were vocally displeased there about someone even mentioning that Ricoh should try anything notably innovative. Thom's observation falls short of even saying that: just put the pieces together. People who don't live inside the PF bubble tend to see things differently; and you can say the same about Nikon, Canon, and Leica bubbles, too. Hogan, despite being specialist in Nikon to make a living, continually reports on the picture outside the bubble, which is his particular strength.
07-30-2014, 04:06 PM   #6
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Thom Hogan also said Pentax and Olympus should close the B&M distribution channels altogether and go to an internet-only model.

He is correct that this extended period of constant, incremental growth, showing small nominal volume increases until the out years (when constant percentage gains result in larger nominal gains) is maddeningly frustrating. A wag on one of the K-3 threads observed that Pentax seems to ignore the needs and desires of the market altogether unless it has something that will immediately be #1 or cutting edge in some way - K10D, 645D and Z, Q, K5, K-3 (even K-01) - so don't expect Q2 to be special, or anything else special at Photokina - unless you expect something unexpected.


P.S. - I do.

Last edited by monochrome; 07-30-2014 at 05:16 PM.
07-30-2014, 04:14 PM   #7
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I've said this before and I feel that it's still relevant:

Pentax/Ricoh could "easily" release a Limited Edition LX-D Fullframe (K-3 with a larger sensor and a bit of retro styling) offering it in a kit with 3 updated FA Limiteds and body only. If they can knock out a 645Z using components from the K-3 then I cannot see why they couldn't do the same with a FF. They probably already have a working camera in-house anyway.
07-30-2014, 04:32 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Thom Hogan also said Pentax and Olympus should close the B&M distribution channels altogether and go to an internet-only model.
Pretty much what Pentax Australia has done. You can buy direct from the distributor online often at prices besting grey market prices. There is B&M stores too but none of the big players have any kind of Pentax presence.

07-30-2014, 04:38 PM   #9
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I really don't have a feel. The question in my mind is how much the 645z development delayed any other projects that were going on at the same time. I have a strong feeling that Pentax is working on full frame and that there really isn't much room above the K3 for another camera, other than full format and medium format (still really expensive).

Pentax needs more lenses -- more than just updates of past lenses with new coatings and weather sealing (although they could do that to the FA limiteds and it would be a big hit). Feels like a 70-200 or 80-200 might be the first clue as to what is coming later.
07-30-2014, 04:50 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote

Pentax needs more lenses -- more than just updates of past lenses with new coatings and weather sealing (although they could do that to the FA limiteds and it would be a big hit). Feels like a 70-200 or 80-200 might be the first clue as to what is coming later.
I agree. That 70-200mm has to be f2.8.
Slow, cute primes are OK I guess...but you also need fast lenses to appeal to a broader audience.
You have a performance, K-3. Why not any f1.4 primes, and a 300mm/400mm f2.8 to pair with their newly released, high priced TC?
08-01-2014, 09:39 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
I'm betting that Thom is just pulling this out of his ass...




You have a good sense of humour Boriscleto


Tom G
08-02-2014, 06:20 PM   #12
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Who is Thom Hogan ?
08-02-2014, 07:07 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
I'm betting that Thom is just pulling this out of his ass...
I respect Thom, but there are times when I think that his ass is incredibly productive.


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08-02-2014, 07:42 PM   #14
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I quite like Thom Hogan's blog, but I think his depth of insight is limited to Nikon only. He has a habit of avoiding talking about Pentax in his articles with a quick dismissive comment. This is strange, because Pentax does a lot of the things he criticises Nikon for not doing - making the "D400" and a full range of "DX" optimised lenses.

One thing about his predictions that is interesting is the idea of a new mirrorless APS-C system. I find it hard to believe that the Ricoh brand will be demoted to just the GR and a few lame Pentax rebrands. Ricoh is effectively out of system camera with the GXR off the market (though curiously still listed as current on their Japan website). However, they have registered several patents for mirrorless lenses recently. I think there is quite a strong chance that Ricoh will soon release one of the following: a new mirrorless system, a relaunch of the GXR, more high-end compacts. Of course this will drive a lot of FF fanatics crazy on this forum, but what can you do?
08-02-2014, 08:51 PM   #15
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I thought the GXR concept was brilliant. Superzoom module, enthusiast P&S module, a couple compact prime lensors, and M-mount.

Unfortunately, the P&S modules reportedly underperformed, AF wasn't up to par, price was too high, etc.

Anyway, way OT...
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