[Miguel]

..

How do you know ?

C'mon Les, Pentax is a malnourished former runner up beauty queen who has been passed around and ripped off by a few abusers over the years. Finally a long time fan paid a charitable ransom in a valiant effort to nurse her back to health. But her now-benevolent steward has her on a strict macrobiotic diet. Unfortunately her savior cultivates plenty more rewarding pleasures about, so we'll see if Pentax is remembered enough to freely exercise in the yard and maybe indulge in steak and ale.

Les, when was the last time Pentax produced a 400mm f2.8 AF USM lens?

I don't think there is a strong resemblance between today's Pentax and what a lot of old time owners hold in their memories. It's a lot different now.

M

[NZ_Ross]

I wonder just how he'd know they weren't coming to the K-3. His website is highly oriented toward Nikon users, and I doubt many of them would talk too loudly in that forum about changing to a minor brand. I suspect he's projecting his views onto those of his readers. Much is made, even here, about Pentax's lag in AF, but aside from reading some anecdotal dissatisfaction and some test figures showing comparative advantages and disadvantages, I also wonder just how often people use the AF advantage that is touted in other brands. It doesn't matter a whit in other than critical shooting involving fast-moving subjects, as far as I can see, and even there some of our Forum members have shown that the user can be a significant factor in success.

Hard figures about the "leakers" would be nice, but I don't know where you'd get them from.

I asked Thom in terms of the emails he was getting on his site i.e. Nikon 'leakers' - were they indicating they were going to Pentax. His answer was no. He will only answer within the dataset he has, so that was the basis I asked the question on.

So what we can say is that Nikon 'leakers' from high end APS-C that are corresponding with Thom Hogan are not moving to Pentax. That is all.

This is only one sample set, what does it mean wider that this - who knows.

I read Thom Hogan because I previously used a Nikon D200 and 'leaked' to a Pentax K5, and now a K3. I am happy with my choices - which at the time I moved across came down to the Nikon D7000 or the Pentax K5. The Olympus OMD series weren't available then - I might have been very tempted to go that way if they had been - as my selection criteria was primarily for travel, and included small, light, WR, good IQ, and good lens selection. The Pentax legacy lenses are an advantage and fun to play with - but weren't a defining part of my selection criteria.

I am still happy to be with Pentax, and the K3 is a very good camera.

[lesmore49]

C'mon Les, Pentax is a malnourished former runner up beauty queen who has been passed around and ripped off by a few abusers over the years. Finally a long time fan paid a charitable ransom in a valiant effort to nurse her back to health. But her now-benevolent steward has her on a strict macrobiotic diet. Unfortunately her savior cultivates plenty more rewarding pleasures about, so we'll see if Pentax is remembered enough to freely exercise in the yard and maybe indulge in steak and ale.

Les, when was the last time Pentax produced a 400mm f2.8 AF USM lens?

I don't think there is a strong resemblance between today's Pentax and what a lot of old time owners hold in their memories. It's a lot different now.

M

Well Miguel, you maybe right. I hope you're wrong, but you maybe right. Like you, I go back a real long time with Pentax. Late '1960's in my case. Back then they were really strong. Spotmatic, then the K series....than the LX and K 1000.

But digital era things haven't been so good, even considering some really good equipment. Very few new consumers seem to be aware of Pentax. Even camera stores seem to be not even providing shelf space and the marketing, even with Ricoh is almost non existent.

Canon and Nikon dominate in number of units sold. Even Sony, Panasonic and Fuji seem to be doing sort of ok. Fuji....now that's a surprise. At one time they were a relative non entity in the more expensive, enthusiast market. I bought one. A point and shoot about 6 years ago. Nice camera, but I'm surprised how quickly they have done well in the enthusiast market.

The other thing...up here, Camera stores are closing their doors. Mostly because more people are not getting point and shoots, but using their phone camera. Some of those phone cameras can produce some decent 8 X 10's. In a few years I wonder if the phone cameras ever evolving will encroach on the enthusiast market.

So all in all...the camera scene is undergoing what appears to me to be a huge seismic change. Who will survive is the question in my mind.

So my question for you...looking in your Chrystal ball....how do you see Pentax doing, in the North American market ...within the next 3-5 years ?

Les

[Aristophanes]

Les, when was the last time Pentax produced a 400mm f2.8 AF USM lens?

When it had a large chunk of the BIF and sports junkie market.

The latter of which has contracted over the last decade. The former probably has a direct correlation to the # of retirees in an age group, so might be growing. Might.

Highly specialized lenses for highly specialized shooting scenarios. They don't move the market.

Fuji's X-series has hardly any viable tele lenses and the mount's origins were for a rangefinder simile, not a long gun optic tool.

---------- Post added 10-31-14 at 09:29 AM ----------

Canon and Nikon dominate in number of units sold. Even Sony, Panasonic and Fuji seem to be doing sort of ok. Fuji....now that's a surprise. At one time they were a relative non entity in the more expensive, enthusiast market. I bought one. A point and shoot about 6 years ago. Nice camera, but I'm surprised how quickly they have done well in the enthusiast market.

Fuji was always in the medium format enthusiast market. In fact, they and Pentax were the market leaders with their real competition coming mostly from Mamiya, Hasselbad,, and a little bit Contax, Rolleiflex, and so on. So it does not surprise me that Fuji is doing well. Remember: they always battled with Canon for #1 in the P&S market, with Sony not far behind. Some of their higher-end P&S digital models (F30) were always aimed at being second camera to a DSLR owner. Fuji sort of took over that spot from Olympus who, in the film days, had the high-end Stylus Epics. Fuji also had nothing to lose my throwing everything into their hybrid VF system or pure EVF's. I find the Fuji's nice, but costly. I still believe there is far more value in a DSLR. A K-50 or a Nikon D5200 has as good or better sensor tech than the Fuji unit at over 2x the price.

[eddie1960]

Fuji sort of took over that spot from Olympus who, in the film days, had the high-end Stylus Epics. Fuji also had nothing to lose my throwing everything into their hybrid VF system or pure EVF's. I find the Fuji's nice, but costly. I still believe there is far more value in a DSLR. A K-50 or a Nikon D5200 has as good or better sensor tech than the Fuji unit at over 2x the price.

twice the price? Functionally neither of those cameras has the build of an XE (though the Pentax is WR and discontinued so price is not the true market price but a clear out.)
Secondly I would sipute them having as good a sensor. there is no controlled test that can compare them because you cannot eliminate the difference in the way they demosaic which is why DXO doesn't test thmem. there are however lots analogous comparisons out there including comparisons to FF. and some of those would lead me to believe the fuji sensoir is better (I haven't had mine long enough to be empahatic and I don't own a nikon F w/ the 85 1.8 so I could do a controlled comparison (the Fujio 16mp with 56 1.2 versus the F with the 85 1.8 equivalent fov/dof
I've heard that in controlled shots if you side by side them it's a 50 50 shot on picking out the ff even for ff shooters.
the XE2 with the 56 1.2 at most is $1800 (and with rebate sales etc should be easy to get for 1550-1600) the Nikon F with the 85 1.8 is 3170 right now with rebates. For that I can have a couple more lenses for the Fuji
I was very tempted by the F or the new 750, but size weight ratio killed it for me
too bad I really like the F takes me right back to the Nikon bodies I shot before

[cali92rs]

Ignoring the fast telephotos, i think Pentax already has the lenses and camera in place to capture quite a bit of the disheartened D300 folks (regardless of what Thom Hogan thinks, i think he is right most of the time, not in this instance though) if they bothered to advertise. They wouldn't even need to tax any of their own resources, they could easily hire a third party firm to take care of that.

[monochrome]

Nikon and Canon are much larger, especially their optics manufacturing capacities.

That's the big differentiator that I keep writing about - I keep saying Pentax won't choose to invest enough capital to compete head-to-head with CaNikon. Optics manufacturing capacity and technology is where they'd need to invest the money. Assembling cameras is child's play by comparison.

[monochrome]

They wouldn't even need to tax any of their own resources, they could easily hire a third party firm to take care of that.

Other than money, they wouldn't need to tax any of their own resources. But what's money, after all?

Unless advertising actually stimulates demand, which would require capital investment to make more lenses and cameras, which would require new contracts with component suppliers, Hiring and training new factory employees, holding more inventory, making credit available to dealers, hiring middle managers and sales people, etc., etc.

Nope. Advertising wouldn't tax any resources at all.

[Miguel]

So my question for you...looking in your Chrystal ball....how do you see Pentax doing, in the North American market ...within the next 3-5 years ?

Les,

My guesses are ridiculous, really, as no one can predict the future.

What’s especially challenging is forcing myself to not apply my learned business and marketing meta-strategies. This is because to me Ricoh is continuing to run Pentax in a strange, unorthodox way that pre-dates the last ownership change. In my mind Pentax is firmly transforming into a cult brand in North America: still positive reputation but it’s based on a certain haziness. The products are rarely seen, and not obtainable at most retail outlets. The lack of advertising feeds this some as well.

Since Ricoh paid so little, relatively, for the brand and whatever assets, they are liberated to act drastically if necessary—as not much is at risk. So it wouldn’t surprise me if they focused almost entirely on the higher margin 645 digital market. That can have a closer affinity to and integration with Ricoh’s existing records management competency (archival management would be the sell).

Since the photography business is in the midst of significant changes, we are still awaiting another round of brand reconciliation or reduction. To me that could mean Ricoh selling off the whole APS-C biz and maybe the Q lines to another ailing entity like Olympus, which itself in turn could be swallowed by Sony.

The significant price reductions in the K-3 line, combined with relatively little new product that’s notable, makes me think that retail sales of Pentax APS-C products are flat at best. And there are fewer product-based benefits that distinguish the Pentax line from anyone else with each passing month. For example, small form factors perceptions now belong to the whole mirrorless segment, while the new standard for performance and weather resistance is already the Canon 7D MK2. This is not to say Pentax products are second rate, though the marketing of them is less than that.

I think it would be silly for Ricoh to enter the FF arena (though it would be fun, and it would put an end to all the FF soul numbing threads here), and I think the window of frontier-type opportunity in the mirrorless market may be closing on them—especially if Canon and Nikon enter with more commitment.

So, Les, to answer your question, I think Pentax as a very high end brand will be lookin’ pretty good, but few of us will have a need for one of their products.

M

[lesmore49]

Les,

My guesses are ridiculous, really, as no one can predict the future.

What’s especially challenging is forcing myself to not apply my learned business and marketing meta-strategies. This is because to me Ricoh is continuing to run Pentax in a strange, unorthodox way that pre-dates the last ownership change. In my mind Pentax is firmly transforming into a cult brand in North America: still positive reputation but it’s based on a certain haziness. The products are rarely seen, and not obtainable at most retail outlets. The lack of advertising feeds this some as well.

Miguel,

True. I can't deny this and in fact, Pentax products in my experience are available at even fewer retail outlets each year. I can't figure out Ricoh's handling of Pentax. They are becoming the 'invisible' brand. Irritating to me, as I have made many purchases of new Pentax equipment. Lot's of lenses, 3 bodies, etc. I do recall back in 2006-07...wondering if I should change my camera make system....to either Nikon, Canon of Pentax. I chose Pentax and although I have no complaint with any of the equipment, do wonder if I've spent a large chunk on a brand that more and more seems like it may become an orphan brand.

Since Ricoh paid so little, relatively, for the brand and whatever assets, they are liberated to act drastically if necessary—as not much is at risk. So it wouldn’t surprise me if they focused almost entirely on the higher margin 645 digital market. That can have a closer affinity to and integration with Ricoh’s existing records management competency (archival management would be the sell).

Having been both a 35mm (Leica, Pentax) and medium format guy (Mamiya) in the film days I could see this become a possibility. Dropping ASP-C, not going into full frame and just staying with medium format.

Since the photography business is in the midst of significant changes, we are still awaiting another round of brand reconciliation or reduction. To me that could mean Ricoh selling off the whole APS-C biz and maybe the Q lines to another ailing entity like Olympus, which itself in turn could be swallowed by Sony.

I agree and do think that there will be another round of reduction or take overs of brands within the next 2-5 years. Don't know where it will go, although I do have some ideas which brands will be affected. At this point I think the only brands that will for sure be here within 5 years will be Canon, Nikon and Sony and I'm not 100% sure about Sony. I say I'm not 100% sure about Sony, as sometimes they seem all over the map and change things quickly. In other words I wonder if Sony will decide to continue or pull out of the higher end, enthusiast / semi pro/pro market.

The best hope for the Pentax/ K-Mount ....unfortunately maybe.... that something similar to what happened to Minolta with the takeover by Sony and Sony taking over the Minolta mount.....happens to Pentax and it's K Mount.

But I do wonder whether the K Mount is of that great value anymore, to any other manufacturer ?

At this point I can't see why some big manufacturer would feel the need to buy the K Mount. I think Samsung dallied with this idea a number of years ago, but have decided to go their own way. Ricoh bought Pentax/K mount and although they've brought out the 645 Z which by all accounts is some camera.....like you, I'm puzzled with what they plan to do with the ASP-C K mount ? I also have no idea what Ricoh's direction is with Pentax. To me the direction Nikon and Canon are taking is much more clear.

I like Nikon's direction and think the new D 750 and also the still ,new, Df DSLR models are very interesting. But I still want to hold onto Pentax, because I like it and also because I've got a ton of money (for me) 'invested' into this system.

The significant price reductions in the K-3 line, combined with relatively little new product that’s notable, makes me think that retail sales of Pentax APS-C products are flat at best. And there are fewer product-based benefits that distinguish the Pentax line from anyone else with each passing month. For example, small form factors perceptions now belong to the whole mirrorless segment, while the new standard for performance and weather resistance is already the Canon 7D MK2. This is not to say Pentax products are second rate, though the marketing of them is less than that.

I think it would be silly for Ricoh to enter the FF arena (though it would be fun, and it would put an end to all the FF soul numbing threads here), and I think the window of frontier-type opportunity in the mirrorless market may be closing on them—especially if Canon and Nikon enter with more commitment.

So, Les, to answer your question, I think Pentax as a very high end brand will be lookin’ pretty good, but few of us will have a need for one of their products.

M

I wish you were wrong....but unfortunately you may well be right on the mark.

Les

[Mr Bassie]

One thing I have noticed is that Ricoh runs a tight ship and the leaks are few. For all we know there could be another camera right around the corner.

[mrkanwal]

.." I seriously doubt whether Ricoh has the manufacturing capacity or capability to make a modern 400mm lens anyway."

How do you know ?

Ricoh (PENTAX) has the manufacturing capacity and capability to make all lenses (even binoculars and telescopes) .
I had worked in the company as a QC and was trained in their manufacturing facility in Japan long time ago. The problem is the market share, they will not produce to just to waste money for little sales.

I don't have doubts about the PENTAX brand, the only problem right now is the marketing strategy. I was so upset because I only saw fewer displays of the products even in the Middle East. Just my request to RICOH (PENTAX), please fire the old sales & marketing guys and replace them with new aggressive sales & marketing team. The products are very highly competitive, they just lack more exposures and publicity!

[j0n4hpk]

Yes, Les. Marketing is something Ricoh has to improve for Pentax. Photoshoping a product with the wrong proportions over a user in an ad is kind of a disservice to the product. Sometime in the 35mm film past, a smaller camera maker stated that a beautiful featured photo in their ad stating that it was not taken by any of the big guns, but by them. I believe that Pentax can sustain itself by actually having their visuals shot by their own equipment (and actually add the information in an ad's footnote). Partnering with sports events may help to attract pros too. And, if certain free artistic events allow, why not have Ricoh / Pentax sponsor them? Any other ideas for marketing?