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02-14-2015, 03:25 PM   #1
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Pentax marketshare less then 1 % ?

So I was looking into the CIPA figures, since they just run the numbers for 2014. They can be found:

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201412_e.pdf

Then I was figuring out how does that relate to the marketshare for Pentax.

So Japan is about 10.3 % of the total market (dslr) since 1.082.010 of the shipped 10.549.890 camera's are sold there. We know from the interview at CP+ that the Japanese home market is the majority for the sales of Pentax/Ricoh camera's. So Q is a large part of it and Ricoh badged camera's is almost close to nothing and both are not in this segment. We have no numbers for Pentax dslr devided into Japan and others, but if these figures are the same then we can draw some "conclusions".

If 50 % of the Pentax dslr is sold in Japan and the other halve in the rest of the world. And Pentax has a market share of 5 % in Japan, wich is maybe even a little high. Then the number of sold Pentax dslr's in the rest of the world would be 54.100 units (at max I even think).

In the rest of the world the numbers shipped dslr is 9.467.880 units. So then the 54.100 units of Pentax dslr are 0.57 % marketshare. I guess that is even fair to assume that it doesn't go much over that number. Some markets may get more sales, but a lot of markets are not catered by Ricoh Imaging. The total marketshare for Pentax dslr would be less then 2 % (depending on the numbers sold in Japan) but closing in to the 1 % and then something after the comma......

Look how hard the market in Europe in general is falling. That will continue into 2015 and 2016 since our economy is very hard at the moment.

EDIT:
Below there is soms more news around the sales of mirrorless in Japan. With a marketshare of 7.2 % for Pentax, witch is the Q. Zo These are 52.200 sold units. This makes up for maybe 80 or even 90 % of the total sales for Q. When these nummers are combined the totale number is over 100.000 sold units (projection for milc and dslr for Japan). So if this is half of the total sales to the rest of the world can also expect sales of 100.000 units. This would be like 90 % dSlr.

Zo we are back at a marketshare for Pentax dslr in the rest of the world outside Japan of around 1 % !!!!!!


Last edited by RonHendriks1966; 02-15-2015 at 06:09 AM.
02-14-2015, 03:40 PM - 2 Likes   #2
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So if I am possessed of the discernment to choose a K-3 over any other dSLR then I am in pretty exclusive company, I should say.
02-14-2015, 03:42 PM   #3
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To be honest, i don't care a lot, as long as we get the FF Ok, just kidding.

I think there may be a flaw in the reasonning : I'm not sure the "majority" means necessarely 50% of total sales. It could maybe mean that this is the place among all other that they sold more : Japan can be 35%, asia 30%, Europe 20% and US 15%.

All this is pure speculation, and as long as Pentax is fine, it's all good to me.
02-14-2015, 03:50 PM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
To be honest, i don't care a lot, as long as we get the FF Ok, just kidding.

I think there may be a flaw in the reasonning : I'm not sure the "majority" means necessarely 50% of total sales. It could maybe mean that this is the place among all other that they sold more : Japan can be 35%, asia 30%, Europe 20% and US 15%.

All this is pure speculation, and as long as Pentax is fine, it's all good to me.
In the transcript of the interview is stated that the Japanese market is larger then the rest of the world (if the translation is right):
http://ricehigh.blogspot.com/2015/02/pfs-interview-with-pentax-officials-at.html

Partly because the market for mirrorless is in Japan larger then the rest of the world and Pentax Q does good in that market.

02-14-2015, 03:50 PM   #5
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We'll never get actual numbers. Publicly traded companies must publish revenue numbers as a matter of law but they give out as little as possible. Too much value for competitors in knowing what the other guy is up to.

Market share itself isn't really the metric that matters. The guy who goes to Costco and buys a Rebel T3i kit and never buys another lens is a marginal sale; the profit margin on bottom cameras is small, maybe less than $100. Of course, profit is profit and if you can sell a lot of units like that, then you can make some decent change. But that customer may not come back for his next camera purchase and that lone sale you got from him is probably all the money you're ever going to get from him. If that kind of customer is the bulk of your sales, your success can be very fleeting.

Instead, for SLRs, the number of loyal and dedicated purchasers is what matters. One guy who buys 5 lenses is probably worth more than 10 guys who buy the kit and nothing else. This kind of customer isn't captured in market-share numbers. The word "attach rate" is thrown around in things like video games--with good reason there, since Sony loses money on the guy who buys a PS4 and uses it only as a media player.

One customer I think Pentax is hoping to capture first is the guy who owns a Pentax system and something else. They want him to find all his needs filled in Pentax. He's a good customer: he has many needs and spends money. He's exactly the sort of customer Pentax needs to keep from getting away. If they can get him to dump his other system, that's better than increasing raw market share.
02-14-2015, 03:56 PM   #6
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I'm not sure about those numbers; but unfortunately I don't have hard data.
Except for the MILC market share in Japan - Pentax/Ricoh have about 7.2%. And that they're making about 15,000 K-S2 units per month.
02-14-2015, 03:56 PM   #7
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Or are you saying "Pentax is doomed?"

Reminds me of the Apple is Doomed mantra from the 1980s.
02-14-2015, 03:58 PM   #8
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Yes, indeed, Pentax is a small player. But Pentax has less fixed costs than Canon, Sony and Nikon. The engineering teams of Pentax must be smaller , that's why they do one camera increment at a time.... which give you more time to use your camera and save money before you upgrade.

02-14-2015, 04:29 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I'm not sure about those numbers; but unfortunately I don't have hard data.
Except for the MILC market share in Japan - Pentax/Ricoh have about 7.2%. And that they're making about 15,000 K-S2 units per month.
So they sell 52.200 units MILC in Japan. But that is probably up to 80 - 90 % of total numbers sold for Q. If that is what makes the Japanese market the largest then the salesnumbers for dslr worldwide can be a little higher. I think they stay under 1% marketshare worldwide excluding Japan. In Japan they sell around 100.000 units including MILC. Outside Japan the same number, just mostly dslr. Staying well under 1%.
02-14-2015, 04:31 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by waterfall Quote
Or are you saying "Pentax is doomed?"

Reminds me of the Apple is Doomed mantra from the 1980s.
It reminds me of the "Pentax is going out of business" mantra from the late 1980s spread by managers at Wolf Camera etc.
02-14-2015, 04:33 PM - 1 Like   #11
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Well I guess if I can't be rich enough to be the 1%, at least I'm 1% of something right?
02-14-2015, 05:10 PM   #12
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From a Pentax users perspective this isn't the worst thing in the world. A large corporation like Ricoh can take all kinds of chances and not be hurt by it where a company like Nikon has to be worried about ever little thing they do.
02-14-2015, 06:28 PM   #13
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I like to think we can all pat ourselves on the back for acquiring tomorrow's rare collectibles. Just think,
20 years from now ebay will filled with worthless, dime a dozen D800's and 5D's, while we'll be able to
actually list a 'rare' K-3, legitimately.
02-14-2015, 07:15 PM   #14
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If they are making 15k KS-2 a month, this means 180k cameras a year. Reminding that they also sell K-3, and at today prices, I think they sell a lot of them, and also KS-1 and K-50, maybe the yearly sales are more than 300k. Which is 3%, from total DSLR production in Japan.

Anyway, as the estimation done by RonHendriks, mine is also pure assumption. I can be wrong, as he can be, and the truth be somewhere else. But I don't think that they are at 1%, but more. Even if they sale only 180k cameras a year, is still almost 2%.

Last edited by JimmyDranox; 02-14-2015 at 07:30 PM.
02-14-2015, 07:36 PM - 1 Like   #15
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I'm not losing any sleep over those numbers. Pentax will either be here or it won't, just like us. If we are here we will deal with the future as it arrives...if we aren't, it isn't going to matter much, is it?

Regards!
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