[Winder]

LensVid Exclusive: What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2014? - LensVid.comLensVid.com

[northcoastgreg]

Mirrorless cameras (despite all the hype) are still just 7% of the entire camera market (up from a mere 5% in 2013).

Advocates of mirrorless systems have been so good at imposing their narrative on the general consciousness that these numbers come as a bit of a shock. Hype indeed!

Predicting the future of the camera market proved challenging in the past – IDC (the American market research, analysis and advisory firm) failed to predict what will happen to the mirrorless camera market. In 2012 they concluded that in 2014 we will see no less than 13 million mirrorless cameras sold worldwide. Only 3 million mirrorless cameras were actually sold…

The fact that even "experts" can be so wrong should make us all a bit weary of making confident projections about what's going to happen in the future. But even when granting the difficulty of making such projections, how could these "experts" have been so wrong? Why did mirrorless fail to live up to these lofty (and in retrospect grossly unrealistic) expectations? I can think several reasons.

1. In discussions of mirrorless, there's way too much emphasis on cameras, while lenses are often ignored. Yet it is precisely the lenses that give Canon and Nikon DSLRs a huge advantage over their mirrorless rivals. And not merely because Canikon offer so many more lens options (many of which are too large to be used comfortably on small, mirrorless cameras), but because many professionals and enthusiasts have already invested in Canikon glass and are therefore reluctant to sell of all their gear and start afresh with an unproven system. This built-in inertia would have slowed down the progress of mirrorless even under the best of circumstances.

2. To sell 13 million cameras requires a fairly substantial sum of consumer purchasing power. Where are all these consumer dollars supposed to have come from? Mirrorless cameras, being new and exciting, would appeal especially to younger photographers. But it is precisely the younger demographic that tends to be the most cash poor. Did any of the experts who predicted 13 million sales of mirrorless cameras ever stop to think about any of these economic realities? Probably not.

3. The firms primarily occupied in developing mirrorless are, for the most part, companies that took up mirrorless after they failed in their DSLR ventures. If these companies failed with DSLRs, why should we expect them to succeed in mirrorless? Olympus and Sony in particular, both of which developed fairly robust DSLR systems, demonstrated an incapacity to compete with Canikon. It's not enough to have talented engineers and to make exciting products. It is also necessary to be well managed. Through poor management, mirrorless companies (particularly Olympus and Sony) have lost millions of dollars developing their mirrorless systems, and now find themselves cash poor and vulnerable to any severe economic shock. Ever wonder why Olympus is dragging their feet on filling out their pro line of lenses, or why Sony is taking so much time filling out its lens lineup? Losing million of dollars and piling up huge debts has consequences for the future of the brand. No way to get around that. If there is to be any sort of "mirrorless revolution," it will likely be led by companies that haven't run up huge debts through poor management. In short, it is likely to be led by Canon and Nikon.

[osv]

Advocates of mirrorless systems have been so good at imposing their narrative on the general consciousness that these numbers come as a bit of a shock. Hype indeed!

better to quote *factual data from the article*, as opposed to listening to mindless rants

"DSLR vs. Mirrorless 2013-2014: NO drop in mirrorless produced & 24% drop in DSLR produced in 2014"

3. The firms primarily occupied in developing mirrorless are, for the most part, companies that took up mirrorless after they failed in their DSLR ventures.

pentax market share went from what, ~5% several years ago to maybe ~1.4% now? does that fit your definition of a failed dslr venture? because i'd have to agree.

pentax isn't even listed on the nyse, not since 2007.

Through poor management, mirrorless companies (particularly Olympus and Sony) have lost millions of dollars developing their mirrorless systems, and now find themselves cash poor and vulnerable to any severe economic shock. Ever wonder why Olympus is dragging their feet on filling out their pro line of lenses, or why Sony is taking so much time filling out its lens lineup? Losing million of dollars and piling up huge debts has consequences for the future of the brand.

"Sony’s shares have doubled in value over the past year and are among the top performers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange"
Sony shares post biggest daily gain in nine years after upgrading outlook | NewsDaily

"Sony Shares Surge After Best Quarterly Profit in 7 Years
Sony will boost the output capacity of image sensors by 33 percent to 80,000 wafers by the end of June 2016, the company said Monday. It’s also shifting 220 employees involved in the development and production of chips for gaming consoles to the image sensor business and other operations.

The company gained a competitive advantage after switching to a technology known as complementary metal-oxide semiconductors, or CMOS. The sensors help record images in low light or with strong backlight, boosting the quality of pictures from smartphone and car cameras.

The electronics company expects camera modules and sensors to generate about 63 percent of its device unit revenue in the year ending March 2018, it said in November.

Full-year operating income from games is forecast to reach 40 billion yen, while weakness in the Japanese yen will help the imaging-products division post earnings of 53 billion yen even as digital-cameras sales slide."
Sony Shares Surge

So the imaging division made a ¥53 billion operating income...

[Kunzite]

pentax isn't even listed on the nyse, not since 2007.

That would be somewhat difficult, as Pentax Corporation was acquired in 2007 by Hoya by a stock swap operation. The question is, what does that say about the performance of Ricoh Imaging?

[RonHendriks1966]

Well I made an item about the very small marketshare for Pentax. They are outside Japan at 1 % (or so) and somehow no-one thinks that is a little scary.

My expectation is that 2015 will be worse then 2014. Especially the sales for lenses will drop faster in the coming year. The good news in the MILC is keeping fround, but the bad news is that it reached it's peak (already).

Since 2012 was a great year for sales in DSLR and those people don't upgrade anymore the sales for dslr will drop again in 2015!

[osv]

"This message is hidden because Kunzite is on your ignore list." :-)

wrt the validity of idc claims:

"Analysts are bad at their jobs: IDC cuts its Windows Phone forecast by 40% in just 181 days
...today we can in fact chart how wrong some firms are at predicting the future. International Data Corporation, usually shortened to IDC, in June said the following about Windows Phone:

Windows Phone7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia’s strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia’s foothold in emerging markets is maintained."
IDC Has No Idea What It Is Doing

windows phone o.s. currently has something like 2.5% market share? lol