Total Interchangeable Lens cameras decline in 2015

johnhilvert · 01-31-2016, 10:30 PM

Latest Camera & Imaging Products Association data shows continued decline in shipment of global market for interchangeable lens cameras (ILC). However mirrorless ILC devices showed positive growth,

http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201512_e.pdf and http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2015_e.pdf

These reveal total shipments for 2015 of ILCs declined to 94.3% (and 95.5% in value) of 2014. DSLRs shipped were just 92% (and 91.6% in value) of those in 2014. However mirrorless grew (though slowly) to 101.7% of those shipped in 2014. But this represented a 108.9% in value of 2014.

The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off.

I suspect Canon, Nikon and Pentax will be eyeing the trend with interest.

CIPA's outlook for 2016 is at http://cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESS%20RELEASE20160201_e.pdf

Last edited by johnhilvert; 01-31-2016 at 10:53 PM.

Adam · 01-31-2016, 10:49 PM - **1 Like**

Seems like the decline was smaller last year than in 2013 and 2014, which is very good.

**clackers** · 02-01-2016, 03:20 AM

Originally posted by johnhilvert

It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off.

Well, the CIPA stats don't say that, John.

Mirrorless again was flat despite all the new models, other reports say Sony camera shipments fell this year, Olympus overtook them in the Japanese market, and even less sensors were sold.

Samsung's mirrorless cameras have failed (not taken into account by these stats, since they're Korean).

Tough business, this.

Pentax launching a new premium DSLR line in a contracting market must have divided the Ricoh board.

**ffking** · 02-01-2016, 04:51 AM

SLRs have had a hard core market while others have come and gone (with some added froth along the way from time to time) - I guess the only query would be whether it is big enough to fund the investment needed to keep ahead

Simen1 · 02-01-2016, 05:35 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by johnhilvert

The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.

If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.

Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%.

johnhilvert · 02-01-2016, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by Simen1

If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.

Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%.

Good spotting, Simen1. Thanks for the correction.

normhead · 02-01-2016, 06:30 AM - **1 Like**

If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph.

It is pretty amazing how small those Sonys are. But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might.

fredralphfred · 02-01-2016, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by normhead

. . . But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might.

Which is why it shocks me that we don't see more "pancake action" from ANY camera manufacturer (other than Pentax). And didn't they drop the XS lens (not to mention the "-es")?

Kunzite · 02-01-2016, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by normhead

If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph.

I'm getting about 10 years, applying a 1.017 growth rate to MILC's CIPA shipment figures, and a 0.92 "growth" rate for DSLRs. Why the difference? Well... you're not using a constant 8% yearly decline for DSLRs. You're using a constant decline in absolute numbers, i.e. each of your 5 years DSLRs are declining with as many units as they did this year (in other words, 8% of the 2014 volumes). Which actually means an accelerating decline (in percentages).

**Lowell Goudge** · 02-02-2016, 02:17 PM

But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear.

**monochrome** · 02-02-2016, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by Lowell Goudge

But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear.

That's what I've always thought.

**clackers** · 02-02-2016, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by monochrome

That's what I've always thought.

It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough.

**monochrome** · 02-02-2016, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by clackers

It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough.

Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device)

**clackers** · 02-02-2016, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by monochrome

Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device)

It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome.

I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a *much* bigger table.

Great for meetings, as you say.

**monochrome** · 02-02-2016, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by clackers

It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome.

I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a *much* bigger table.

Great for meetings, as you say.

Well I guess I don't understand the distinction. All I know is I have an iPad, it runs my business software, downloads my presentations, uploads my data captures and offers a (legally) limited view of my entire business network universe, WiFi or Cellular.

01-31-2016, 10:30 PM	#1
johnhilvert Senior Member Join Date: May 2015 Location: Canberra, ACT Posts: 245	Total Interchangeable Lens cameras decline in 2015 Latest Camera & Imaging Products Association data shows continued decline in shipment of global market for interchangeable lens cameras (ILC). However mirrorless ILC devices showed positive growth, http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201512_e.pdf and http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2015_e.pdf These reveal total shipments for 2015 of ILCs declined to 94.3% (and 95.5% in value) of 2014. DSLRs shipped were just 92% (and 91.6% in value) of those in 2014. However mirrorless grew (though slowly) to 101.7% of those shipped in 2014. But this represented a 108.9% in value of 2014. The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off. I suspect Canon, Nikon and Pentax will be eyeing the trend with interest. CIPA's outlook for 2016 is at http://cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESS%20RELEASE20160201_e.pdf Last edited by johnhilvert; 01-31-2016 at 10:53 PM.

01-31-2016, 10:49 PM - 1 Like	#2
Adam Administrator Site Webmaster Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Arizona Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 51,594	Seems like the decline was smaller last year than in 2013 and 2014, which is very good. Adam PentaxForums.com Webmaster (Site Usage Guide \| Site Help \| My Photography) PentaxForums.com server and development costs are user-supported. You can help cover these costs by donating or purchasing one of our Pentax eBooks. Or, buy your photo gear from our affiliates, Adorama, B&H Photo, KEH, or Topaz Labs, and get FREE Marketplace access - click here to see how! Trusted Pentax retailers:

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02-01-2016, 03:20 AM	#3
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by johnhilvert It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off. Well, the CIPA stats don't say that, John. Mirrorless again was flat despite all the new models, other reports say Sony camera shipments fell this year, Olympus overtook them in the Japanese market, and even less sensors were sold. Samsung's mirrorless cameras have failed (not taken into account by these stats, since they're Korean). Tough business, this. Pentax launching a new premium DSLR line in a contracting market must have divided the Ricoh board.

02-01-2016, 04:51 AM	#4
ffking Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Old South Wales Posts: 6,038	SLRs have had a hard core market while others have come and gone (with some added froth along the way from time to time) - I guess the only query would be whether it is big enough to fund the investment needed to keep ahead

02-01-2016, 05:35 AM - 1 Like	#5
Simen1 Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Tromsø, Norway Photos: Albums Posts: 1,031	Originally posted by johnhilvert The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%.

02-01-2016, 05:47 AM	#6
johnhilvert Senior Member Join Date: May 2015 Location: Canberra, ACT Posts: 245 Original Poster	Originally posted by Simen1 If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%. Good spotting, Simen1. Thanks for the correction.

02-01-2016, 06:30 AM - 1 Like	#7
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph. It is pretty amazing how small those Sonys are. But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might.

02-01-2016, 07:47 AM	#8
fredralphfred Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Orting, WA Posts: 252	Originally posted by normhead . . . But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might. Which is why it shocks me that we don't see more "pancake action" from ANY camera manufacturer (other than Pentax). And didn't they drop the XS lens (not to mention the "-es")?

02-01-2016, 02:42 PM	#9
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	Originally posted by normhead If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph. I'm getting about 10 years, applying a 1.017 growth rate to MILC's CIPA shipment figures, and a 0.92 "growth" rate for DSLRs. Why the difference? Well... you're not using a constant 8% yearly decline for DSLRs. You're using a constant decline in absolute numbers, i.e. each of your 5 years DSLRs are declining with as many units as they did this year (in other words, 8% of the 2014 volumes). Which actually means an accelerating decline (in percentages).

02-02-2016, 02:17 PM	#10
Lowell Goudge Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Toronto Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 17,886	But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear.

02-02-2016, 02:32 PM	#11
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	Originally posted by Lowell Goudge But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear. That's what I've always thought.

02-02-2016, 03:30 PM	#12
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by monochrome That's what I've always thought. It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough.

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02-02-2016, 03:34 PM	#13
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	Originally posted by clackers It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough. Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device)

02-02-2016, 04:34 PM	#14
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by monochrome Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device) It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome. I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a much bigger table. Great for meetings, as you say.

02-02-2016, 04:55 PM	#15
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	Originally posted by clackers It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome. I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a much bigger table. Great for meetings, as you say. Well I guess I don't understand the distinction. All I know is I have an iPad, it runs my business software, downloads my presentations, uploads my data captures and offers a (legally) limited view of my entire business network universe, WiFi or Cellular.