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01-31-2016, 10:30 PM   #1
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Total Interchangeable Lens cameras decline in 2015

Latest Camera & Imaging Products Association data shows continued decline in shipment of global market for interchangeable lens cameras (ILC). However mirrorless ILC devices showed positive growth,

http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201512_e.pdf and http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2015_e.pdf

These reveal total shipments for 2015 of ILCs declined to 94.3% (and 95.5% in value) of 2014. DSLRs shipped were just 92% (and 91.6% in value) of those in 2014. However mirrorless grew (though slowly) to 101.7% of those shipped in 2014. But this represented a 108.9% in value of 2014.

The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device. It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off.

I suspect Canon, Nikon and Pentax will be eyeing the trend with interest.

CIPA's outlook for 2016 is at http://cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESS%20RELEASE20160201_e.pdf


Last edited by johnhilvert; 01-31-2016 at 10:53 PM.
01-31-2016, 10:49 PM - 1 Like   #2
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Seems like the decline was smaller last year than in 2013 and 2014, which is very good.

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02-01-2016, 03:20 AM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnhilvert Quote
It seems that Sony's bet on pushing for FF mirrorless device is paying off.
Well, the CIPA stats don't say that, John.

Mirrorless again was flat despite all the new models, other reports say Sony camera shipments fell this year, Olympus overtook them in the Japanese market, and even less sensors were sold.

Samsung's mirrorless cameras have failed (not taken into account by these stats, since they're Korean).

Tough business, this.

Pentax launching a new premium DSLR line in a contracting market must have divided the Ricoh board.
02-01-2016, 04:51 AM   #4
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SLRs have had a hard core market while others have come and gone (with some added froth along the way from time to time) - I guess the only query would be whether it is big enough to fund the investment needed to keep ahead

02-01-2016, 05:35 AM - 1 Like   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnhilvert Quote
The ratio of mirrorless (3,344,906) to DSLRs ( 9,709,093) shipped now stands at 34%. Effectively one in three interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.
If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.

Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%.
02-01-2016, 05:47 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Simen1 Quote
If the numbers and what they represent are quoted correctly, it seems there is effectively one in four interchangeable lens devices shipped last year was a mirrorless device.

Or in other words, for every fourth ILC camera sold, three of them are DLSR and one mirrorless. DSLRs counting for 74,38% and mirrorless for 25,62% of the total 100%.
Good spotting, Simen1. Thanks for the correction.
02-01-2016, 06:30 AM - 1 Like   #7
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If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph.

It is pretty amazing how small those Sonys are. But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might.
02-01-2016, 07:47 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
. . . But, I don't find it difficult to carry cameras, I find is difficult carrying lenses. Buying a Sony doesn't change that. Buying a Panasonic FZ1000 might.
Which is why it shocks me that we don't see more "pancake action" from ANY camera manufacturer (other than Pentax). And didn't they drop the XS lens (not to mention the "-es")?

02-01-2016, 02:42 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
If you are going to calculate how long it would take mirrorless to sell equally with dSLRs based on a 1.7% growth rate.... and 8% reduction in DSLRs, a 50% advantage (75 to 25) with about a 10% adjustment per year, it would only be 5 years until they were equal in sales, if this years numbers because part of a flat line on a graph.
I'm getting about 10 years, applying a 1.017 growth rate to MILC's CIPA shipment figures, and a 0.92 "growth" rate for DSLRs. Why the difference? Well... you're not using a constant 8% yearly decline for DSLRs. You're using a constant decline in absolute numbers, i.e. each of your 5 years DSLRs are declining with as many units as they did this year (in other words, 8% of the 2014 volumes). Which actually means an accelerating decline (in percentages).
02-02-2016, 02:17 PM   #10
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But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear.
02-02-2016, 02:32 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by Lowell Goudge Quote
But d Es any of it matter, everything except serious photography will ultimately be done by smart phones, at which point mirror less will disappear.
That's what I've always thought.
02-02-2016, 03:30 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
That's what I've always thought.

It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough.
02-02-2016, 03:34 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
It was the end of the MP3 player when phones became good enough, and at the moment, enough people are not updating their tablets because the larger handsets are now good enough.
Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device)
02-02-2016, 04:34 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Tablet are becoming a business tool. We have an iTable at HQ (awesome presentation and collaboratin device)

It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome.


I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a *much* bigger table.


Great for meetings, as you say.
02-02-2016, 04:55 PM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
It's a touch device, but not a tablet, Monochrome.


I've seen one of the original Microsoft Surfaces, a *much* bigger table.


Great for meetings, as you say.
Well I guess I don't understand the distinction. All I know is I have an iPad, it runs my business software, downloads my presentations, uploads my data captures and offers a (legally) limited view of my entire business network universe, WiFi or Cellular.
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