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08-13-2016, 02:36 AM   #1
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More Pentax opportunities for K-1 with Olympus & Nikon collapsing at -25/32%?

Nikon is shrinking away even faster than in the last years:
http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2017/17first_all_e.pdf
Nikon DSLRs units sold collapsed -32% compared to same quarter last year.
And no, the sensor shortage which also affected Pentax is not the main reason here, because you can see that the sensor-free lenses are collapsing just the same way:
Nikkor lenses units sold collapsed -31% in one year.

Nikon whole camera business now only adds 2/3 of the profit value as the precision instruments business, while it stil has *2 the total sales volume. One more year like this and maybe Nikon's camera business will be sold? Sony?

Even more so now that mirrorless Olympus seems to share Nikon's fate of doom and gloom numbers:
http://www.olympus-global.com/en/common/pdf/brief149PA.pdf
Olympus overall imaging sales collapsed -25% and from operating profit turned into operating loss business.
In stark contrast to Nikon they could sell more lenses, though.

Their products seem not so convincing to the market.

Now the question is if the relatively good report from Ricoh means that there is more opportunity for the K-1 to provide the basis for growth. It seems the mass consumer brands SoNiCanon are shrinking faster than Pentax, which is a (relatively) good sign. There is an advantage to being a smaller niche player.

08-13-2016, 02:48 AM   #2
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I don't know if I'm correct but, I find more people using their iPhones, iPads and other tablets to take pictures. I think it's about having lesser items and lighter to carry.

Probably, the DSLR/MILC market is truly saturated.

Just my guess.
08-13-2016, 02:52 AM   #3
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08-13-2016, 03:17 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
I don't know if I'm correct but, I find more people using their iPhones, iPads and other tablets to take pictures. I think it's about having lesser items and lighter to carry. Probably, the DSLR/MILC market is truly saturated.
Yeah, this is definitely part of the reason.

Pentax doing well right now is because it had some great products at prices lower than the competition. The problem is that if the total DSLR market is shrinking, the other companies will adapt and will be competing with Pentax more aggressively, instead of staying in their own lane (remember, Nikon didn't really take Pentax very seriously as a competition, since Pentax used "last gen" Sony sensors, didn't have FF, etc. - but with 645Z and K-1 this is already shifting). Sony is already trying to hit non-traditional camera markets with the tiny MILC cameras. Canikon will follow suit, quickly. Fuji and Oly will have to lower prices on their cameras, since many buyers simply don't appreciate quality - all they see is the size and think "why pay so much for a tiny camera, when I can use my ipad?"

It has been a good time for Pentax in the recent past, but those statistics mean things are unstable. Hopefully with Ricoh's support and strategies, Pentax will be able to continue.

08-13-2016, 03:27 AM - 2 Likes   #5
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Perhaps what we will find is that the vast array of lenses (and bodies, too) that every man and his dog wants Pentax to make is in fact a lead weight around the necks of Canon and Nikon, and that the vast lens armamentaria of both are about to take a hard uppercut to a very brittle glass jaw.

If this happens and they have to slim right down to survive, it might leave Tony Northrup's disparaging comments on Pentax's lens range tasting rather like ashes in his mouth.
08-13-2016, 04:14 AM - 2 Likes   #6
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Ok I will be the first to say it - Nikon is doomed! ;-)
08-13-2016, 04:39 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Na Horuk Quote
Fuji and Oly will have to lower prices on their cameras, since many buyers simply don't appreciate quality - all they see is the size and think "why pay so much for a tiny camera, when I can use my ipad?"
Oly already is bleeding money so I would doubt their shareholders would allow them to go lower prices.
Fuji probably could, but competing on price would destroy their hipster image, which is their primary USP.
The mass market producers depend on huge marketing efforts and the in-store presence which costs money they have to earn via high prices. Both the large array of lenses and the way they go to market today makes them very clumsy to turn around and address the challenges.

The whole concept of price raises to address loosing customers is a vicious cycle in itself, when you enemy is much cheaper phones.

On the demand side, yes, Galaxy phones do replace DSLRs and mirroless ones, which makes the remaining consumer group smaller and smaller. I am just suprised by the catastrophic speed of this. Shrinking 1/3 of your core business in one year alone is very, very bad - more so when you have lost -20% of your customers in each of the previous three years already. That seriously brings up the word "doom".
I doubt that $2,000+ DSLRs will have a prosperous future outside special niche even in the short 3 year run. Same applies to lenses beyond a certain price.
08-13-2016, 04:43 AM - 1 Like   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by kiwi_jono Quote
Ok I will be the first to say it - Nikon is doomed! ;-)
Way too late there Jono - I was talking about it on another thread back in February 2015.

I will give you points for saying it first on this particular thread

Cheers

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08-13-2016, 04:51 AM   #9
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I think the string of headlines like these this year probably wouldn't have helped Nikon's sales:
Nikon Japan announces price increases of up to 18% for lenses and flash units
up to 30% price increase on Nikon lenses in Europe
Another Nikon price increase is coming to the UK on August 1st
Canon, Nikon and Sony to Increase European Prices by 20%
etc etc
08-13-2016, 05:00 AM   #10
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Oly is down, this is obvious from the Olu report.
What about Nikon, sales down but is the imaging division at a loss or is the income down? This isn't obvious to me (but I have no habit of reading this kind of documents).
08-13-2016, 05:11 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Oly already is bleeding money so I would doubt their shareholders would allow them to go lower prices.
I've often felt that Olympus achieves what it achieves in sales by a massive marketing budget - looks like it's maybe too big - which is interesting in the context pf complaints about Ricoh/Pentax spending too little on marketing
08-13-2016, 06:29 AM   #12
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Olympus has patented 6-7 FF mirror-less lenses in the last 2 years. The speculation is that Olympus will launch a FF mirrorless body in the very near future. Of course those lenses might be E mount lenses and Olympus is joining Sony in this market. We don't know, but they are investing in the FF mirrorless market for a reason. Maybe we will get lucky and Ricoh will buy Olympus.
08-13-2016, 07:44 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by ffking Quote
I've often felt that Olympus achieves what it achieves in sales by a massive marketing budget - looks like it's maybe too big - which is interesting in the context pf complaints about Ricoh/Pentax spending too little on marketing
Kind of like The Olympics.
08-13-2016, 08:42 AM   #14
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The market is very saturated. Everyone interested in photography has acces to a serious camera if wanted. Most buyers of a K-1 probably still have some older model at home. A K-3 in the camera bagage, a K-7 in the closet, a K10D in the hobbyroom and somewhere in the house an *IstD. There are millions of unused camera's all around the world, yet we take our smartphone. Pentax has a good wind, but is doing what Nikon has done the past two years. Selling a more expensive camera to their shrinking customer base. Pentax sells the K-1 to people who otherwise probably would have bought a K-3ii. That is a good thing, but never the less, this will not grow endlessly. The market for camera's is shrinking and probably will do so in 2017.
08-13-2016, 11:13 AM   #15
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CIPA S1-2016/S1-2015 data do indeed show continuous slow down for ILC cameras :

* DSLR production down -20,5%, MILC -14,8%

* DSLR sales -17%, MILC -15%

And this trend has been boringly constant since 2013.

But still, Nikon's headaches won't do Pentax's feast....
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