[monochrome]

So far it appears that Ricoh’s business strategy (starting 04/2013) in which they sell a smallish volume of great products at competitive but not Liquidation prices, with essentially zero marketing expense in the West, zero Dealer Support (Factor expenses), very few Sales & Administrative employees, little Professional Support expense, short warranties and outsourced repair (etc.) - they accurately foresaw the contraction (as I was told by Ricoh management 04/30/2013) - it appears maybe the business strategy is working.

---

Last edited by monochrome; 11-07-2017 at 06:23 PM.

[mee]

Yeah, Nikon guessed wrong about camera sales post 2011, and are shutting down a plant, I read the other week. The discounting wars with Canon for the low end benefitted neither company, IMHO. You have to go back to 2014 to find a Sony camera sold here in Australia for less than $1000.

Let's hope their executives can accelerate their transition to a premium product brand, I really want camera brands to hang in there until they've really gone through all the options before folding/being subsumed.

I agree.

Except I suspect both management and the company structure there operates like a large ship.. in that large ships take a lot of time and effort to shift course. There are a lot of moving parts in such a ginormous corporation that have to move together.. while also watching costs.. it is challenging situation!

After reading a couple lengthy articles on Kodak and what went wrong, I got the impression that Kodak management saw the looming digital threat and reacted but just not deep enough. They seemingly didn't want product lines that would be parasitic to the film lines... which they held stoically to for far too long.... Kodak management couldn't walk away from their (former) gravy train. And finally, when the company downsized, they had problems with paying their fixed costs due to lower volume of film sales, which was (in fatter times) lowering their costs...

I think there was also a disturbance in sales channels.. and retailers ended their loyalties to Kodak.. and started selling competitors film.

Then when smartphones and more advanced compacts came about and wiped out point and shoots, they no longer had a foot in the digital market.

Meanwhile Fuji adapted.. and branched out..

With Nikon, I think it will be interesting to see how well they can squeeze profit from the remaining factories and products. I think 2018 will show a slimmer product lineup at a higher cost (averaged across remaining products). The day of the brand new 500 dollar DSLR might be well over. Esp now that we have 800+ dollar smartphones. Now the market can say.. smartphones (baseline imaging devices) are going up in price, so we'll follow the market.

[awscreo]

I never quite understood why they had so many different yet almost identical bodies on the market, competing with one another. Like 3300/3400/3500 - not much difference, yet a lot of them are still on the market. Same with 5000/7000 series. I wonder if this was part of their problem, as well as the overall rise of the smartphone photography and mirrorless offerings

---------- Post added 11-07-17 at 06:29 PM ----------

I agree.

Except I suspect both management and the company structure there operates like a large ship.. in that large ships take a lot of time and effort to shift course. There are a lot of moving parts in such a ginormous corporation that have to move together.. while also watching costs.. it is challenging situation!

After reading a couple lengthy articles on Kodak and what went wrong, I got the impression that Kodak management saw the looming digital threat and reacted but just not deep enough. They seemingly didn't want product lines that would be parasitic to the film lines... which they held stoically to for far too long.... Kodak management couldn't walk away from their (former) gravy train. And finally, when the company downsized, they had problems with paying their fixed costs due to lower volume of film sales, which was (in fatter times) lowering their costs...

I think there was also a disturbance in sales channels.. and retailers ended their loyalties to Kodak.. and started selling competitors film.

Then when smartphones and more advanced compacts came about and wiped out point and shoots, they no longer had a foot in the digital market.

Meanwhile Fuji adapted.. and branched out..

With Nikon, I think it will be interesting to see how well they can squeeze profit from the remaining factories and products. I think 2018 will show a slimmer product lineup at a higher cost (averaged across remaining products). The day of the brand new 500 dollar DSLR might be well over. Esp now that we have 800+ dollar smartphones. Now the market can say.. smartphones (baseline imaging devices) are going up in price, so we'll follow the market.

Mm, going to high school games I see a lot of parents rocking the entry level dslrs with kit zooms, I'd imagine it's a fairly big chunk of their sales, especially since my local Walmart doesn't sell anything above d5200, and best buy isn't much more devise in that regard. Big cities would have more, certainly, but there's a ton of people living in the country side

[mee]

I never quite understood why they had so many different yet almost identical bodies on the market, competing with one another. Like 3300/3400/3500 - not much difference, yet a lot of them are still on the market. Same with 5000/7000 series. I wonder if this was part of their problem, as well as the overall rise of the smartphone photography and mirrorless offerings

---------- Post added 11-07-17 at 06:29 PM ----------



Mm, going to high school games I see a lot of parents rocking the entry level dslrs with kit zooms, I'd imagine it's a fairly big chunk of their sales, especially since my local Walmart doesn't sell anything above d5200, and best buy isn't much more devise in that regard. Big cities would have more, certainly, but there's a ton of people living in the country side

My friendly, neighborhood Walmart carries the D3100 and D3200 side by side the last I looked. haha. I think for the same price too. They have it on a display to try but don't have a lens mounted. I almost wonder if someone didn't steal the lenses.. that is possible.

Surely it is a part of Nikon's problem though. They created a ton of these during the boom to meet perceived demand for entry level bodies.. and competing with Canon in the same range... every year a new model to one up the competition at bargain basement prices. This seems to have created such a glut of entry bodies on the market that retailers are offering old and new together.. or in my local walmart's case.. old and older..

Kind of like watching two guys at an auction.. who keep bidding up and up.. one upping the other... beyond the actual price of the item brand new. Eyes were fixated on the other that they forgot to look at the market... to see if they should keep bidding..

The D7500 removed battery grip support as well as dual card slots from the 7k series to give more difference between it and the D500. That is interesting to me.. they are seemingly concerned with cannibalizing D500 sales that they are limiting features on the 7k series that once were there. At least that is my PoV with their reasoning.

Which leads me to the D610 and D750.. I wonder if they'll launch a D610 successor AND a D750 successor or just merge the two camera lines together into one new body? Surely if they launch a D610 successor it will have to have features beyond the D750 which then would necessitate a D750 update. Unless they just ditch D610 and update the D750 or, again, merge the two into one. Again 2018 should be interesting in that regard.

[clackers]

They seemingly didn't want product lines that would be parasitic to the film lines... which they held stoically to for far too long.... Kodak management couldn't walk away from their (former) gravy train.

Yeah, this is the so-called Innovator's Dilemma ... everyone knows what happened to Xerox, to IBM, et al, but even today, which executives are willing to make the decision to pivot their businesses, and which will choose to kick the can down the road so it happens on somebody else's watch?

As I say, I do hope that all the manufacturers work this out, and in their own ways, because they have individual circumstances - as you hint, there can be a lot of inertia in a big firm, let alone the cultural issues of traditional Japanese business conservatism.

[mee]

Yeah, this is the so-called Innovator's Dilemma ... everyone knows what happened to Xerox, to IBM, et al, but even today, which executives are willing to make the decision to pivot their businesses, and which will choose to kick the can down the road so it happens on somebody else's watch?

As I say, I do hope that all the manufacturers work this out, and in their own ways, because they have individual circumstances - as you hint, there can be a lot of inertia in a big firm, let alone the cultural issues of traditional Japanese business conservatism.

It is interesting how IBM was able to right their ship.. with as large of a company as they were (and are) they did the opposite of Kodak... in that they were willing to let go of past cash cows (hardware) and change into more of a software and services corporation. I mean IBM.. International Business Machines. And look at them now.. all servicey and software oriented... and they are still alive and kicking.

You're quite right... these companies each have individual circumstances. There isn't any one correct path for all.

[bm75]

Which leads me to the D610 and D750.. I wonder if they'll launch a D610 successor AND a D750 successor or just merge the two camera lines together into one new body? Surely if they launch a D610 successor it will have to have features beyond the D750 which then would necessitate a D750 update

Nikon failed a lot of marketingand strategy. D500 arrived late as peolple using semipro D300/d300s wanted a new model . They did the d7000 that was a different camera, ignoring the demand for a rugged APSC body that would be a special purpose camera or a backup for an expensive sports camera. Then came d7100, d7200,finally d500 (professional - the very upgrade of the d300) and now the d500 and the d7500 coexist in the line up for different customers . with FF, it's clear that people (pros included) are still waiting for a new d700 because d600/d610 had nothing to do with it , d800/d810 are not a d700 upgrade being not a general purpose camera; d750 is unreliable . So what...... staying with APSC, why i ever upgrade from d7100 to d7500 when the d7500 is not an upgrade from the model I own?

---

Last edited by bm75; 11-08-2017 at 06:07 AM.

[clackers]

It is interesting how IBM was able to right their ship.. with as large of a company as they were (and are) they did the opposite of Kodak... in that they were willing to let go of past cash cows (hardware) and change into more of a software and services corporation. I mean IBM.. International Business Machines. And look at them now.. all servicey and software oriented... and they are still alive and kicking.

Yeah, and leasing/finance, too, like General Electric.

Robert Cringely's 'Accidental Empires' is really good if you have an interest in the emergence of the previous generation of tech giants (I'm a Systems Engineer, so it doesn't bore me).

In it, IBM is really in its Big Blue era. Beancounter mandarins rule the roost, engineers are seen, not heard. Harmony is all important, so various departments all need to sign off on any project. A relatively junior executive pointed out that speed of getting product to market ruled out using the slow but steady IBM hardware and software development teams, so the commodity-part PC with a choice of externally sourced OSes was a guerilla project, needing special dispensation from above.

I'd love to read something similar on the camera industry, but these sort of Inside Baseball books rely on ousted founders or candid current employees. Japanese culture as I understand it doesn't hold non-conformists in great regard ... "The nail that sticks out gets hammered down", etc.

[beholder3]

Does anyone have numbers for Canon, Sony, Fuji, Olympus, and Ricoh? Looking for some perspective on volume.

Canon's most recent figures from a couple of weeks ago said about units sold:

• Canon -3% DSLRs and mirrorless (versus the -16,1% Nikon).
• Canon -1% compacts (versus the -18,5% Nikon)

For interchangeable-lens digital cameras, although demand continues to decrease primarily in developed countries, the pace of decline is gradually decelerating. Projections for digital compact cameras indicate continued market contraction, centered mainly on low-priced models, despite solid demand for high-value-added models.

Canon in Imaging systems expects sales of 1,133 billions of yen with 172 billions of yen operating profit.
Nikon in Imaging Products Business expects sales of 355 billions of yen with 25 billions of yen operating profit.
Sony in Imaging products and Solutions expects sales of 650 billions of yen with 72 billions of yen operating profit. This does include their (here: Olympus & Sony) medical business though, for which we know little other than they target 200 billion sales for 2021.

Sony expects to sell 4.2 million cameras in total: compacts + ILC (no data given on share).
Nikon expects to sell 6.5 million cameras in total: compacts (2.6) + ILC (3.9).
Canon expects to sell 10 million cameras in total: 4,3 million compacts + 5,7 million ILC.

Nikon is a niche player compared to Canon now and shrinking much faster even. Quite possible Sony and/or Fuji to pass them by or already have done so.

[bm75]

Canon has a different vision. Canon is the manufacturer of the sensor in their cameras. they are independent from Sony in this regard. Nikon doesn't. Canon is ahead of Nikon in the video department. you can make pretty good videos with any their APSC camera from 70d on. Sony is better, too. And Canon doesn't recall quite anything. Their cameras work as expected to for the shutter count they're intended to. They have a line up of professional lenses and a consistent professional service .Do I like Canon products ? No until I have to overpay for a camera body (look at 6d mark II) with a small set of features but yes some of their glass is really good.

[awscreo]

Canon has a different vision. Canon is the manufacturer of the sensor in their cameras. they are independent from Sony in this regard. Nikon doesn't. Canon is ahead of Nikon in the video department. you can make pretty good videos with any their APSC camera from 70d on. Sony is better, too. And Canon doesn't recall quite anything. Their cameras work as expected to for the shutter count they're intended to. They have a line up of professional lenses and a consistent professional service .Do I like Canon products ? No until I have to overpay for a camera body (look at 6d mark II) with a small set of features but yes some of their glass is really good.

My friend that pre ordered 5d4 had to return his one for repairs right away, his logic board was faulty, apparently a spread issue that they fixed for free. I guess they had less issues than nikon, but not immune to qc defects

[mee]

My friend that pre ordered 5d4 had to return his one for repairs right away, his logic board was faulty, apparently a spread issue that they fixed for free. I guess they had less issues than nikon, but not immune to qc defects

DSLRs are so complex that I'm not concerned if there are initial product issues... what is much more concerning to me is how the company that offers said product handles these situations.


I wonder if camera companies will become more sensitive to defects and PR as the market shrinks? Less potential buyers so it might be prudent not to tell them to like it or leave it and instead be more pro-active about issues and in support. With some companies seemingly treading water, it may mean releases need to be less defective and/or repairs more inclusive and prompt (in terms of admitting and handling issues as they arise).


Nikon, for one, cannot afford another D750 fiasco.. where the shutter randomly nukes itself.. Nikon repairs.. (and in some cases) the shutter nukes itself again.. Nikon repairs (or doesn't... and charges 300 bucks)


That's costly both in repairs and in PR.. one-two punch. Maybe this also means slower release cycles too in the future - More time to design and test, more time on the market to recoup costs, more time to just get back to photography (and not salivate over the next latest and greatest).

[bm75]

My friend that pre ordered 5d4 had to return his one for repairs right away, his logic board was faulty, apparently a spread issue that they fixed for free. I guess they had less issues than nikon, but not immune to qc defects

This is perfectly possible. Single defective items are a realm in every kind of product. But Nikon made thousands of defective cameras ... What's incredible is that Nikon already has the tecnology for consistent shutter mechanism, i.e. the kevlar composite shutter of d3/d700 and, I suppose d4. d3/d700 are old projects...why not simply using this tech for the newest models? My reason is simple :more incomes. this kind of politics is now proven to be negative and self striking. Nikon loyals know that : lenses made outside japan are much sensitive to lens variations and QC issues.that's why old nikon lenses (af d , ai s , ai) still have a strong market;those lenses are well made.

[awscreo]

This is perfectly possible. Single defective items are a realm in every kind of product. But Nikon made thousands of defective cameras ... What's incredible is that Nikon already has the tecnology for consistent shutter mechanism, i.e. the kevlar composite shutter of d3/d700 and, I suppose d4. d3/d700 are old projects...why not simply using this tech for the newest models? My reason is simple :more incomes. this kind of politics is now proven to be negative and self striking. Nikon loyals know that : lenses made outside japan are much sensitive to lens variations and QC issues.that's why old nikon lenses (af d , ai s , ai) still have a strong market;those lenses are well made.

I believe he told me his unit was part of a fairly big recall/repair wave. I understand how complicated modern cameras are and do not expect 100% problem free products from any company, just saying that Canon has issues also.

[bm75]

Ok. Being both Pentax and Nikon user I just spoke of Nikon but Canon could have its faults. But it seems that some popular Canon products (I.e. Old 6d, 5d mark III, some of their lenses) are much more consistent being direct competitors of Nikon products like d600 and d750. Otherwise I heard of heavy banding problem for the 5d mark II, for example.