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11-07-2017, 05:10 AM - 1 Like   #1
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Nikon selling -16,1% DSLRs, -15,5% lenses, -18,5% compacts this FY18/3

DSLR: from 3.1 million sold in FY17/3 down to 2.6 million forecast for FY18/3 = -16,1%
Lenses: from 4.62 million sold in FY17/3 down to 3.9 million forecast for FY18/3 = -15,5%
Compacts: from 3.19 million sold in FY17/3 down to 2.6 million forecast for FY18/3 = -18,5%

So all markets are shrinking in sync, compact are not dropping off much quicker than ILC.

Bad for customers is the drift to more expensive / high price/margin items. But that is good for the company, so with much less customers the monetary sales figures are only shrinking -7% this year and operating profit is up.

They are firing 3,350 employees in Imaging business and 1,000 employees in lithography for a total of 4,350 employees.
In 2015 they had about 25,400 employees total, so this year they are firing more than 1/6th of all they staff.

http://nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2018/18second_all_e.pdf

Generally there is a move in the industry to disengage customers with less funds to spend and focus on the wealthy ones only.

11-07-2017, 05:34 AM - 1 Like   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Generally there is a move in the industry to disengage customers with less funds to spend and focus on the wealthy ones only.
This in not surprising.

Standalone cameras now only sell to people who can afford to buy two cameras: a smartphone first and then a second standalone one. And because a standalone camera only makes sense if it is markedly better than the person's first camera (the smartphone), the second camera has to be a pretty good one.

The good news is that it will force camera makers to only make good cameras because nobody is going to buy a camera that isn't an upgrade from a smartphone.
11-07-2017, 05:53 AM - 1 Like   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Standalone cameras now only sell to people who can afford to buy two cameras: a smartphone first and then a second standalone one. And because a standalone camera only makes sense if it is markedly better than the person's first camera (the smartphone), the second camera has to be a pretty good one.
This sounds good in theory but still is going to exclude all enthusiasts, who want a "proper camera" with IL and physical dials, but cant afford $2000+ entertainment electronic devices.

The margins on the top tier products are so "good" for sellers because they are hugely overpriced for what you get. I do sometimes feel like a sheep or Apple nerd, when I willingly spend these amounts on photo stuff.
11-07-2017, 07:02 AM - 1 Like   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
This sounds good in theory but still is going to exclude all enthusiasts, who want a "proper camera" with IL and physical dials, but cant afford $2000+ entertainment electronic devices.

The margins on the top tier products are so "good" for sellers because they are hugely overpriced for what you get. I do sometimes feel like a sheep or Apple nerd, when I willingly spend these amounts on photo stuff.
The gross margins on top tier photo stuff may be high and yet it does not seem like Nikon, Canon, Sony, etc. are all that profitable. All that overpaid gross margin is either going to cover losses on the low-end equipment or it's being spent on R&D, marketing, professional services, etc.

11-07-2017, 07:40 AM   #5
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I think you also have to factor in that when you look at the mid-range stuff the global market must be pretty saturated by now. You see so many people around with okay cameras... probably their upgrade cycle is quite long, and then they hand on their camera to the next person... cameras are highly durable.

How many DSLRs are there in the world in circulation? Must be a pretty big number. If you just want an okay point and shoot for holidays, you're gonna use it in auto mode etc then probably you're not going to be buying a new camera very often.

High end end stuff has the wow factor that can make people want to upgrade.
11-07-2017, 10:52 AM   #6
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Nikon is losing lots of loyals due to design fail of most of DSLR from d600 on. every new model is plagued by LOTS of problems, affecting also professional usage. Also Nikon do not admit the problems and just go on selling, then making recalls for serials. This is disappointing the loyal base and letting people go elsewhere. This is bad because the sensors on those camera are pretty good and people used to Nikon system can't simply jump ship.
11-07-2017, 11:29 AM   #7
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But they did admit the problems after it was in the news enough.. replacing D600 bodies for D610. They essentially got a free camera upgrade.

The D750 owners got new shutters... some got new rubber grips and other replacements in addition.

Faulty battery owners got replacements.


Did K-30/K-50/K-S1 owners get free aperture motor replacements? SDM lens owners get free motor replacements?


I think the bigger issue is large companies like to maximize profits and recalls eat heavily into that. So they don't move until there is enough pressure to move. Pentax just doesn't get enough press for it to become a PR disaster for them like it does for Nikon.
11-07-2017, 12:16 PM   #8
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Funny how Nikon is often seen as the de facto option for many people, yet if those poor results keep happening, they could be one of the first big companies to fold.

11-07-2017, 12:33 PM - 1 Like   #9
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There was a time I could not conceive that Kodak would become practically irrelevant to the world of photography. I hope Nikon is able to do what is necessary to stay in the game. I don't perceive them having issues as a boon for Pentax. Just the opposite. The gut says we're witnessing global shifts in technology, manufacturing, demand etc. Survival of conventional camera makers may truly be dependent on identifying and satisfying niche markets.
11-07-2017, 12:43 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
replacing D600 bodies for D610. They essentially got a free camera upgrade.
They haven't done this everywhere . Here they offered a free replacement and upgrade for the shutter mechanism (Both d600 and d750 - for diffent problems) . Plus they offered a free repair service for the ghosting problem of the d750. Not to say that d800 has so much microblur due to the shutter mechanism ....The problem is that the serial numbers expected for service recall is increasing including quite all the d600 and the d750 in this market (with just ONE authorized service point), Many users are hungry here (pros included). But for people used to the Nikon interface that spended many $$$$$ for lenses, this is a real pain. I also knew of expensive AFS (ultrasonic) lenses made from 2002-2009 with AF dying just as SDM .

---------- Post added 11-07-17 at 08:52 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by clickclick Quote
Survival of conventional camera makers may truly be dependent on identifying and satisfying niche markets.
For those 2 big companies that have a strong market of professionals , I suppose this means making consistent products valuable for pros (as they have already done for decades with excellent sports camera, as an example).

---------- Post added 11-07-17 at 09:17 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by clickclick Quote
I hope Nikon is able to do what is necessary to stay in the game
Nikon has its strenghts like the high end cameras for sports, some great set of lenses (PC and f/1,4 primes, long tele zooms and primes), the best flash system (CLS). But this is not sufficient in a demanding market where pros represent a small percentage of the market and the high end APSC DSLR is being eaten alive by APSC mirrorless. Customer satisfaction is the key point, IMHO.
11-07-2017, 01:50 PM - 1 Like   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by clickclick Quote
There was a time I could not conceive that Kodak would become practically irrelevant to the world of photography. I hope Nikon is able to do what is necessary to stay in the game. I don't perceive them having issues as a boon for Pentax. Just the opposite. The gut says we're witnessing global shifts in technology, manufacturing, demand etc. Survival of conventional camera makers may truly be dependent on identifying and satisfying niche markets.
It isn't as dire as that though.. Nikon was positioned for the heyday of momtog and everybody-has-to-have-a-big-digital-camera' mentality that peaked around 2010 or 2011. As the low end side of the market shrunk, popularity as a sideline status symbol waned, and DSLRs on the whole have matured to the point they are 'good enough' ... all of this has slowed sales for Nikon.

Today they are, like Ricoh, trying to find the right size for the market with the right products for that market. Ricoh is ahead on the size aspect.. but I think they are behind in technology and brand recognition. Canon probably should be concerned.. I think they are closer to Kodak in boardroom thinking. Nikon seems to see the issues and is trying to adjust (hence closing of a factory and downsizing the staff).



Basically, the popular trend has shifted away from big/dedicated cameras, back to only people buying who are really serious or interested in photography today. The market shrunk from the peak. But surely it is just going back to roughly the size it was pre-digital boom before many consumers latched on to the idea that big camera = better photos of my kids. Canon, Nikon, Pentax, etc were there in the past. Nothing is stopping them from still being there... as long as they adapt to buyer expectations.


I wonder though.. hypothetically.. IF the market shifted heavily to full Mirrorless ILCs. Pentax could be the majority player in DSLRs. I just don't see Pentax shifting heavily to mirrorless and a new mount. They seem to be currently spending a lot of time and money getting K mount DSLR lenses just right.. which tells me they are into DSLRs for the long haul.
11-07-2017, 03:28 PM   #12
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It's the phones.

I don't think if you could see the actual sales figures from any of the camera companies, you'd see anything different. They're all in freefall. Canon and Pentax/Ricoh or Sony aren't immune.

Smartphones and internet connectivity have just decimated business model after business model. There's almost nothing they aren't crushing, and everyone is giddy about it.

Ricoh would probably kill for sales figures of what Apple will do in a single day on the iPhone X.

And we've all been watching as a phone connected society has seen local newspaper readership dwindle, record stores close, video rental stores close, and now camera stores close.

Ricoh/Canon/Nikon/Sony could give us the perfect camera that all the forum wags have been imagining, and blaming them for not properly recognizing customer needs and demands. It could even sell at a reasonable price, but Apple would likely still sell more iPhones in a minute than what that camera would sell in a year.

We have to wake up and smell the coffee. Our hobby just isn't mainstream any more.

Last edited by MarkJerling; 11-07-2017 at 06:40 PM. Reason: Word removed.
11-07-2017, 04:26 PM   #13
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Yeah, Nikon guessed wrong about camera sales post 2011, and are shutting down a plant, I read the other week. The discounting wars with Canon for the low end benefitted neither company, IMHO. You have to go back to 2014 to find a Sony camera sold here in Australia for less than $1000.

Let's hope their executives can accelerate their transition to a premium product brand, I really like camera companies to hang in there until they've really gone through all the options before folding/being subsumed.

Last edited by clackers; 11-07-2017 at 05:51 PM.
11-07-2017, 05:10 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
DSLR: from 3.1 million sold in FY17/3 down to 2.6 million forecast for FY18/3 = -16,1%
Does anyone have numbers for Canon, Sony, Fuji, Olympus, and Ricoh? Looking for some perspective on volume.
11-07-2017, 05:19 PM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Does anyone have numbers for Canon, Sony, Fuji, Olympus, and Ricoh? Looking for some perspective on volume.
The CIPA figures through Sept 2017 (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201709_e.pdf) show compact cameras actually growing faster than ILCs, DSLRs shrinking a few % year-on-year, and mirrorless growing very quickly but still lagging DSLRs.
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