Originally posted by Rondec Overall, we are probably headed back to pre-digital sales of ILCs.
This is the key. At first the surge in digital was caused by everyone (mostly) replacing a film camera. Since then we have seen a rapid increase in ability and features that allowed people to see a clear difference in a new DSLR over the 2 or 3 year old model they had. We have now reached maturity or near maturity in the DSLR market. New camera purchases will slow greatly because there is no real reason to buy a new camera when the existing one already does more than the owner needs. That will be true of the vast majority of DSLR customers, though not necessarily true of the enthusiast crowd. New sales will come from young people moving up from a phone camera, replacement of breakage or loss, enthusiasts who want the new regardless of need and emerging markets.
Ricoh's slow and deliberate business model seems more appropriate to the new reality of DSLR sales.
There are a number of places to focus attention:
1) Young people - hipper style and colors. Close integration with social media and internet connectivity
2) Enthusiasts - camera features that squeeze out that last few percentage points of performance. Lenses designed to be the best of the best on modern sensors
3) Retention of existing user base - compatibility with existing lenses, features requested by the user community
4) Emerging markets