[Tas]

Looking at the most recent data does seem to be better than looking at older data, yes.

Newer data does need to be looked at, you are quite correct in this, but it needs to be looked at in context, not just a single month as throughout a single year the figures will vary, a point identified in your post after the one I'm quoting here. That post is a better representation of the Jan 18 figures as you can see what it looks like compared to 2016 and 2017.

But to play 'what if', lets look at a single month in isolation and I choose Jan 17. A post focusing on those shipments could be way more positive and rightly so considering the increase compared to Jan 16. So looking at a month in isolation is a bad way of understanding the broader picture and you would become very poor indeed if you adopted that approach when buying and selling on the share market. What your post does show is the shipments are down compared to the two previous years. That alone doesn't tell us much other than maybe the 2017 up tick was more anomalous that the industry would want.

And that's all my post was about, the picture is bigger than one month and you should weigh those figures against the longer time frame. And as a photography enthusiast I don't like where the ILC market is heading but it is reality and the photographic market is a moving ball and all companies have to continue to find ways to stimulate the market back into growth or understand what the new reality is and be the first to adjust to those conditions to have the best chance for survival.

For example, with Ricoh I think the GR could be huge in this context if the soon to be announced GR III is everything that people are wanting out of the update. For me Sony turns models over too quickly, so a more stable model that works well could be big for the company. All opinion of course but it could be the type of innovation that Ricoh need to maintain relevance in the market.

I reckon this phase in the industry is still a work in progress and it would be interesting to see if there's graph data for the transition from film to digital stills cameras as it would have been on a similar scale of disruption as that represented by smart phones on the digital camera market. I can't find the data here: CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association: Digital Cameras but I reckon that would be an interesting comparison; YMMV of course. What happened is now a matter of history but to compare the two 'phases of disruption' is the kind of thing that would interest me.

Mate, please don't think I was having a go, this is too good a place to visit for anything adversarial and that was certainly not my intent. I don't know how much lower the figures are going to get, but it's not unreasonable to assume continued contraction in the digital ILC market and the steady replacement of DSLR sales for mirrorless. We could revisit this discussion in Feb 19, it might be good for a giggle.

Tas

[RobA_Oz]

You have to be careful about translaring your own experience into a generalisation, but the comments about the ILC market situation moving back to the pre-digital era make me think of how I settled on my K2DMD for years, simply because I couldn't see anything that gave me a sufficiently valuable improvement. For a long time, I only bought lenses, something for which I'm glad now. For Pentax users, the big jump came with the K-1, but that's a camera body that's likely to have the same effect with me as the K2DMD, especially if the current upgrade offer proves to be attractive, as noted above. We'll see, of course, but the retirement fund is being guarded more closely now.

It isn't just Pentax users, of course. I have a good friend who bought a Canon 5DIII, that she's unlikely to want to move on in a hurry, simply because it does everything she wants, and she's as keen as most high-end enthusiasts I know.

That's a sample of two, with diversity thrown in, so it must be good.

[RGlasel]

Lenses worldwide down by -10,1%

This is a good indication of the overall trend, this stat isn't skewed by new technology or new model introductions. This stat indicates that the total "enthusiast" market is shrinking, because an enthusiast will spend money every year, regardless if their camera body was recently upgraded (so instead of buying a camera they buy lens(es)), or how many lenses they already have. The lens stats do tend to follow general trends in camera sales for the past two years, but should be immune to the earlier smartphone effect that killed the compact digital camera market, . Interestingly, to me at least, the value of overall lens sales is up 7% (so average price is up almost 20%). 35mm and larger format lens sales in January are up 20% in units, 18% in value, although world-wide 2.3 APS-C and smaller lenses are sold for every larger lens (in Japan, it was 4 smaller lenses to every larger lens).

Well at least the "mirrorless wlll win" crowd will be quiet for a bit.

That would be a blessing, but it might be too early to declare an end to MILC frenzy. 2017 was almost 30% better than 2016 for the mirrorless crowd. For some reason, the A99 reminds me of a putrid port from Australia that was marketed here by the gallon as 999, so my Pavlovian response to Sony propaganda is to feel like I'm going to vomit. I'm still sticking to my 2015 prediction that Sony will sell its assembled camera business to a third party by 2020.

[BigMackCam]

This stat indicates that the total "enthusiast" market is shrinking, because an enthusiast will spend money every year, regardless if their camera body was recently upgraded (so instead of buying a camera they buy lens(es)), or how many lenses they already have.

Is that really so? Or maybe I misunderstand the use of the term "enthusiast"... I would have put myself in that bracket, but my spend on new equipment has dropped significantly in the last two years, and continues to drop, as I reach the stage where I feel I have (more than ) "enough" gear. My next really significant spend on new equipment is likely to be a K-3II replacement, and in my case that won't be for years. I'd have thought that was reasonably common... or am I mistaken?

[RGlasel]

I would have put myself in that bracket, but my spend on new equipment has dropped significantly in the last two years, and continues to drop, as I reach the stage where I feel I have (more than ) "enough" gear. My next really significant spend on new equipment is likely to be a K-3II replacement, and in my case that won't be for years. I'd have thought that was reasonably common

A camera manufacturer would look at someone with relatively new premium equipment for two different systems, who feels they have more than enough gear now, as part of a market with very little opportunity. The soccer mom market for ILC's is a shadow of what it once was, compact cameras have been superceded by smartphones; a significant drop in the number of enthusiasts who regularly buy lenses, even when they already have enough, will force the camera industry to undergo major restructuring.

If you are a camera manufacturer you need to look at general trends and paint your customers with broad strokes to make capital allocation decisions and those decisions will affect what new products are available in the future, which will affect how much money enthusiasts will spend to feed their hobby. It won't happen overnight, but the information we have available doesn't look good for the photographic equipment industry overall.

[RobA_Oz]

Is that really so? Or maybe I misunderstand the use of the term "enthusiast"... I would have put myself in that bracket, but my spend on new equipment has dropped significantly in the last two years, and continues to drop, as I reach the stage where I feel I have (more than ) "enough" gear. My next really significant spend on new equipment is likely to be a K-3II replacement, and in my case that won't be for years. I'd have thought that was reasonably common... or am I mistaken?

The enthusiast market will shrink by natural attrition, if replacement enthusiasts aren't found for those who drop off the perch from natural causes or drop out of the market. I'm like you, having satisfied most of my equipment requirements. There's a difference between picture-taking enthusiasts and gear-aquisition enthusiasts, even if that's just a matter of time.

If current social trends are anything to go by, the rise of enthusiasm for minimalism among younger people means the replacement pool of camera/photo enthusiasts will be smaller than for the last couple of generations. Whether that trend lasts beyond the inter-generational wealth transfer that goes with inheritance remains to be seen, but makers must be aware of that trend.

[Winder]

January CIPA figures show that the industry still hasn't seen the worst of it.

Shipments of DSLR units in January 2018 versus January 2017 (worldwide): -17,4%
Shipments of mirrorless units in January 2018 versus January 2017 (worldwide): -22,4%

Fewer and fewer customers.

Mirrorless shrinking was worst in Japan (-27,4%) and Europe (-30,2%). Lenses worldwide down by -10,1%

CIPA Data: January 2018 - Don't fret the small stuff | Canon News