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03-03-2018, 03:24 AM   #1
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dinosaur ILC mirroless -22,4% and DSLR -17,4% still dying out

January CIPA figures show that the industry still hasn't seen the worst of it.

Shipments of DSLR units in January 2018 versus January 2017 (worldwide): -17,4%
Shipments of mirrorless units in January 2018 versus January 2017 (worldwide): -22,4%

Fewer and fewer customers.

Mirrorless shrinking was worst in Japan (-27,4%) and Europe (-30,2%). Lenses worldwide down by -10,1%

03-03-2018, 04:28 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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I see this as signals for many things not least the lasting power of recent camera technology. I have had my k-1 for nearly 2 years and I am still very satisfied. Why upgrade / buy latest when the one in hand is great.

This is possibly why Pentax has taken the hardware update path. Smart if true.
03-03-2018, 04:37 AM - 1 Like   #3
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Is looking at only a single month the best way of reading what's happening with the industry?

03-03-2018, 04:45 AM - 1 Like   #4
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Overall, we are probably headed back to pre-digital sales of ILCs. Folks will upgrade their cameras for need, but honestly, all of the bells and whistles -- 4K video, 12 fps, 200 shot buffers -- just don't move the needle a whole lot for most people. If you have a D7000 and are satisfied with the auto focus and mainly use it for your kids soccer games and low light events, why would you buy a D7500?

My guess is that cameras at the very top end of things are still moving, but that entry levels are stagnating quite a bit.

03-03-2018, 04:45 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tas Quote
Is looking at only a single month the best way of reading what's happening with the industry?
Looking at the most recent data does seem to be better than looking at older data, yes.
03-03-2018, 05:34 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tas Quote
Is looking at only a single month the best way of reading what's happening with the industry?
QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Looking at the most recent data does seem to be better than looking at older data, yes.
The point @Tas is making is that these are January on January figures, not full year on year (or that's the way this is presented in your post, at least).

I do think there's some relevance in single month figures, but with new model releases and brand-specific discounting happening at various times throughout any given year, a twelve month data sample is likely to provide a more accurate view than a one month sample. Considering the release cycle for new and updated camera models (eg. K-1 to K-1II, A7 MkII to MkIII), it may be that an even longer sample - say 24 months - would be better still...
03-03-2018, 05:52 AM   #7
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But I think the figures are a numeric confirmation of what we all observe - smart phones are becoming the device of choice for capturing visual images, both still and moving.
03-03-2018, 06:07 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tas Quote
Is looking at only a single month the best way of reading what's happening with the industry?
I was thinking the same thing. Thanks for posting the video. It is interesting that sales were up in 2017. Maybe January was a particularly good month last year. These stats are tracking shipments, not sales, so it is possible that Christmas sales were better than expected in 2016, so dealers ordered a lot in January 2017 to replenish their stocks. Comparing one month's "sales" is interesting, but it does not tell us much.

---------- Post added 03-03-18 at 08:09 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by roberrl Quote
But I think the figures are a numeric confirmation of what we all observe - smart phones are becoming the device of choice for capturing visual images, both still and moving.
I don't disagree with your assessment, but per the video above, ILC and COMPACT camera sales ROSE in 2017.

03-03-2018, 07:07 AM   #9
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This image suggests the nosedive in January is just continueing the trend that started in August 2017.

https://www.dpreview.com/files/p/articles/0947329966/Changeable_lens_1.jpeg
03-03-2018, 07:16 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
This image suggests the nosedive in January is just continueing the trend that started in August 2017.
To me, what's most telling about that graph is that the patterns for 2017 and 2016 are fairly similar, though most of 2017 appears to have less month-to-month variance than 2016, and March through August sales were consistently better too. The August through December rise and fall, whilst not exactly the same, follows a similar pattern. If we project that 2018 might show a similar pattern to the previous two years (not an unreasonable assumption), we should expect numbers to rise for February / March...
03-03-2018, 07:19 AM - 2 Likes   #11
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Well at least the "mirrorless wlll win" crowd will be quiet for a bit.
03-03-2018, 07:24 AM - 1 Like   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Well at least the "mirrorless wlll win" crowd will be quiet for a bit.
The guys responsible for mirrorless sales plunging -30% in Europe will at least have some interesting discussions about their sales bonus...
03-03-2018, 08:08 AM   #13
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The market is Saturated with cameras. When you bring out a 'New and Improved' every 9 to 12 months, you'll eventually kill your sales. It's like the joke with Oly releasing their latest model and hoping no one notices it's just like the previous model
03-03-2018, 10:31 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Overall, we are probably headed back to pre-digital sales of ILCs.
This is the key. At first the surge in digital was caused by everyone (mostly) replacing a film camera. Since then we have seen a rapid increase in ability and features that allowed people to see a clear difference in a new DSLR over the 2 or 3 year old model they had. We have now reached maturity or near maturity in the DSLR market. New camera purchases will slow greatly because there is no real reason to buy a new camera when the existing one already does more than the owner needs. That will be true of the vast majority of DSLR customers, though not necessarily true of the enthusiast crowd. New sales will come from young people moving up from a phone camera, replacement of breakage or loss, enthusiasts who want the new regardless of need and emerging markets.

Ricoh's slow and deliberate business model seems more appropriate to the new reality of DSLR sales.

There are a number of places to focus attention:
1) Young people - hipper style and colors. Close integration with social media and internet connectivity
2) Enthusiasts - camera features that squeeze out that last few percentage points of performance. Lenses designed to be the best of the best on modern sensors
3) Retention of existing user base - compatibility with existing lenses, features requested by the user community
4) Emerging markets
03-03-2018, 11:31 AM   #15
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I think this is not an appropriate method for measuring the health of camera industry. Cameras are not tooth brush, they last for years. Unfortunately everything is getting measured in this fashion. This makes difficult for small companies to survive and may lead to more consolidation.
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