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04-07-2018, 10:18 AM - 15 Likes   #1
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DSLR vs. DSLM : actual data overview 2012-2018

Here is a complete overview of CIPA data, starting at the point in time, when they began differentiating between DSLR and DSLM ILC.

These are actual shipments, not just production figures. These are product unit sales, so pretty much, how many customers / people actually bought products (assuming very few people buy many cameras at once).

More than 6 years worth of data. A long time in digital world.



The trendlines are 5th degree polynomial ones.

Often people just grab and interpret partial data, so I thought an "big picture" view makes sense.

I guess that's an explanation of why you see more smartphones out there and fewer DSLRs, but no more DSLMs.

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Last edited by beholder3; 04-11-2018 at 03:43 AM.
04-07-2018, 10:49 AM   #2
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This definitely puts things in perspective. Thanks for sharing!

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04-07-2018, 11:10 AM   #3
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Well plotted, and interesting perspective, beholder3.

Does it compel me to go mirrorless, or run two parallel systems? Well, it appears I'm still having too much fun shooting DSLRs ...
04-07-2018, 11:17 AM - 1 Like   #4
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Mm, wherever I go to any big city I see a ton of mirrorless cameras on the streets. However, when I go somewhere to shoot nature or landscapes it's mostly Canikon dslr's. Honestly, when I lived in a huge city, I really liked using my small mft camera and wouldn't want to use a DSLR. Carrying a big camera bag with heavy lenses is cumbersome in the city.

04-07-2018, 11:33 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by awscreo Quote
Mm, wherever I go to any big city I see ...
And so we learn the facts show that these types of sample size 1 personal observations often can be vastly misleading.
Sample size 1 generally is a poor choice if anyone wants to prove anything.
----

The graph also shows well that November is the (x-mas) peak month, where they consistently sell the max, followed by very low sales in January/February.

The worst change seems to have happened 2013/2014.

It all seems a very slow evolutionary process.

If you cherry pick, then you take November 2012 data and compare it to February 2018 data and correctly claim "mirrorless sales has crumbled to about 1/3 of their volume comparing against 5 years ago. When will mirrorless be extinct?" Only that usually nowadays the claims are the other way around.

Last edited by BigMackCam; 04-07-2018 at 01:24 PM.
04-07-2018, 11:41 AM - 1 Like   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
And so we learn the facts show that these types of sample size 1 personal observations often can be vastly misleading.
Sample size 1 generally is a poor choice if anyone wants to prove anything.
----

The graph also shows well that November is the (x-mas) peak month, where they consistently sell the max, followed by very low sales in January/February.

The worst change seems to have happened 2013/2014.

It all seems a very slow evolutionary process.

If you cherry pick, then you take November 2012 data and compare it to February 2018 data and correctly claim "mirrorless sales has crumbled to about 1/3 of their volume comparing against 5 years ago. When will mirrorless be extinct?" Only that usually nowadays the claims are the other way around.
em, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, I'm merely stating my personal observations.

Last edited by BigMackCam; 04-07-2018 at 01:25 PM.
04-07-2018, 09:50 PM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
I guess that's an explanation of why you see more smartphones out there and fewer DSLRs, but no more DSLMs.
I think it's a little hard to say what this means in terms of actual *usage*, though. I *suspect* that more DSLRs are in use than DSLMs, but many DSLRs could be replaced with newer DSLRs. DSLRs could also be replaced by DSLMs. Also DSLMs are usually smaller than DSLRs and therefore could be less noticeable when you are out & about.
04-08-2018, 01:46 AM   #8
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It would take a lot to make me give up the k mount, but I often consider a DSLM to complement the K-50.

I've been eyeing up the Panasonic G80 for a while and the Canon M100 since it launched. Wide angle seems particularly expensive on Pentax and an M100 with 15-45, 23f2 and 11-22 would come out at only £150 more than a Pentax 12-24 on its own.

Both would give me better video and some cheaper lens options. As a theory, I'd maybe suggest the initial burst of activity was people taking advantage of the benefits of diversifying systems and its evening out now down to personal preference still lying on the DSLR side (maybe driven by familiarity/professionals keeping to what they can reliably use to recreate results).

04-08-2018, 02:41 AM - 1 Like   #9
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I wonder what the current lifespan of an ILC is these days? It probably depends a bit on the level of the camera purchased, but my guess is five to six years, while back prior to 2010, it felt like I was grabbing a new camera with every flagship release -- every 18 to 24 months. At that point, there were real changes in the sensor and in performance with each generation that came out. Now, it seems that they've returned to the mantra that photographers need "more megapixels and faster frame rates." All well and good, but most of us don't need more megapixels or faster frame rates.
04-08-2018, 09:13 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Here is a complete overview of CIPA data, starting at the point in time, when they began differentiating between DSLR and DSLM ILC.
Interesting. Thanks for preparing and sharing. I wonder what the future holds in store?
04-09-2018, 12:39 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Here is a complete overview of CIPA data, starting at the point in time, when they began differentiating between DSLR and DSLM ILC.

These are actual shipments, not just production figures. These are product unit sales, so pretty much, how many customers / people actually bought products (assuming very few people buy many cameras at once).

More than 6 years worth of data. A long time in digital world.



The trendlines are 5th degree polynomial ones.

Often people just grab and interpret partial data, so I thought an "big picture" view makes sense.

I guess that's an explanation of why you see more smartphones out there and fewer DSLRs, but no more DSLMs.
Have you done a similar one for revenue? At the end if the day itís all about money and margins. For example, fewer items at higher prices may (or may not) be financially more attractive than more items at lower prices.
04-10-2018, 04:40 AM   #12
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The image (https://www2.pic-upload.de/img/35130434/DSLRDSLM.jpg) has disappeared.

I'd love to see it.

@beholder3, could you please make it available again?
04-11-2018, 02:14 AM - 1 Like   #13
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I have no idea why the file disappeared there. I will share it again later, but potentially that is going to take quite a while. In the meantime it seems it stays visible here in a size that is good enough to read.
04-11-2018, 03:37 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
I have no idea why the file disappeared there. I will share it again later, but potentially that is going to take quite a while. In the meantime it seems it stays visible here in a size that is good enough to read.
Unfortunately it does not. Clear the cache of your browser or force a page refresh and you'll see.
04-11-2018, 03:44 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Unfortunately it does not. Clear the cache of your browser or force a page refresh and you'll see.
I just believed you and took the image from my browser and uploaded it here in the forum directly for now. You should see it now again.
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