[beholder3]

I took some data from the mpost recent 2018 quartely financial figures and it is looking interesting:



The key data is coming from Canon and Nikon who are the only companies giving away at least partially usable data.

Nikon's newest forecast for the total ILC market is 10 million units. Canon pretty much owns that market with a 55%.
And then there are the small players as runners up, like Nikon, who only expect to take 23%.

Everything else is guessing, because either there are no numbers or the numbers are crazy mixtures of stuff.

With only 22% left for all of Olympus, Fuji, Pentax, Nikon, Panasonic it really gets narrow.

I guessed 2% for Pentax, which I think is ok as educated guess.

Then from the monetary sales volume of Olympus (46 bln yen) for their ILC compared to Nikon, the 4% probably is already being generous.

Then there is still Fuji, Sony and Panasonic left.

Throwing the probably small player Panasonic into the Fuji pot there is only Fuji/Pana and Sony left.

Without any relaibale data I just bowed to Sony's ad campaigns and attributed them with a little bit more than Fuji/Pana.

However you look at it: The market today is "Canon and the litle kids". And looking at their profit margins you can also say Canon is the big margin product seller. So the narrative of them just selling the cheap 1000Ds is not true.

If anyone has additional data sources with links, report them please.

Attached Images

 

[surfar]

2%...you rounded down didnt you?

[stevebrot]

2%...you rounded down didnt you?

That is expected...

After all, Pentax is DOOMEDTM


Steve

[Mistral75]

1/ Olympus's market share is more than twice that of Pentax:

Olympus, mirrorless and compact cameras (and their lenses): revenue = ¥55,4bn, see https://www.olympus-global.com/ir/data/brief/pdf/brief150PB_4.pdf page #26

Ricoh, Smart Vision: revenue = ¥19.4bn, see http://www.ricoh.com/IR/data/pre/pdf/h30q4_1.pdf page #12

Not only does Smart Vision include more than Pentax and Ricoh ILCs, compact cameras and interchangeable lenses (it also includes the Ricoh Theta ecosystem and Ricoh-branded rugged professional compact cameras) but 55.4 ÷ 19.4 = 2.86.

One can safely assume that Olympus's market share is more than three times that of Ricoh Imaging (excluding Theta).

2/ Fujifilm's turnover from still cameras and lenses is known; it's the turnover of Fujifilm \ Imaging Solutions \ Electronic Imaging = ¥88.8bn, see http://www.fujifilmholdings.com/en/pdf/investors/finance/materials/ff_2018q4_001.pdf page #24 and #25

Again, 88.8 ÷ 19.4 = 4.58.

One can assume that Fujifilm's market share is around five times that of Ricoh Imaging (excluding Theta).

---------- Post added 05-20-2018 at 01:25 PM ----------

2%...you rounded down didnt you?

Actually, he rounded up, see above. If Pentax (+ Ricoh GR and WG) had a 2% market share Olympus would have a 6+% market share and Fujifilm a 10% market share and the sum of the market shares of the various players would be far above 100%

The market share of Pentax is close to and a bit less than 1.5%.

---

Last edited by Mistral75; 05-20-2018 at 04:25 AM.

[Kunzite]

How much of Olympus and Fujifilm are other than ILCs?

[RonHendriks1966]

The most remarkeble thing in this graph is that Sony is already almost as big as Canon when it comes to sales in yen.

I think Sony has a bit more then 10 % marketshare. I would guess them at 12 % at least. All the other little children are just smaller each.

Pentax is close in to 1 % marketshare. The 2 % is a bit to much to ask. Little Brand with no worldwide presence in all markets. Slow ing down sales over the past year.

[beholder3]

The market share is about number of users, so it is pure guesswork to go from sales figures to units sold.


Any deviation in the average factory price will skew the results and it is a really wild guess to assume mFT cameras have the same average price as Fujis or Canons.


The other guessing factor lies in the chaotic mixture of sales factors in their numbers. Video cameras, lenses, completely non-photographic items, whatever is pushed in there.


All we know for sure is that all of Fuji, Sony, Pentax, Panasonic, Olympus are absolutely tiny compared to Canon and Nikon is already too small to compete on even grounds and further shrinking away.


If Olympus is 3% or 5% or Sony 7% or 10% doesn't matter much in the big picture.

---------- Post added 21st May 2018 at 11:16 ----------

By the way: If you compare this graph with CIPAs ratio of DSLM vs DSLR, it is quite easy to make a guess about the part of EOS-Ms in Canon's overall share.


And that is further proof that Canon M is already bigger in mirrorless than both Sony and Fuji (and of course all of mFT).

[Mistral75]

How much of Olympus and Fujifilm are other than ILCs?

The revenues indicated above (Olympus: ¥55,4bn; Fujifilm: ¥88.8bn) come only from ILCs, their lenses and compact cameras.

The revenue of Ricoh Smart Vision (¥19.4bn) includes in addition 360° cameras (Theta) and professional cameras. Neither Olympus nor Fujifilm have 360° cameras or professional cameras in their portfolio.

The split between ILCs and their lenses on the one hand, compact cameras on the other hand, is only available for Olympus. Follow the link I provided above, go to the suggested page and you will find:

- ¥46.8bn (84.5%) for ILCs and their lenses
- ¥8.6bn (15.5%) for compact cameras.

[Rondec]

The revenues indicated above (Olympus: ¥55,4bn; Fujifilm: ¥88.8bn) come only from ILCs, their lenses and compact cameras.

The revenue of Ricoh Smart Vision (¥19.4bn) includes in addition 360° cameras (Theta) and professional cameras. Neither Olympus nor Fujifilm have 360° cameras or professional cameras in their portfolio.

The split between ILCs and their lenses on the one hand, compact cameras on the other hand, is only available for Olympus. Follow the link I provided above, go to the suggested page and you will find:

- ¥46.8bn (84.5%) for ILCs and their lenses
- ¥8.6bn (15.5%) for compact cameras.

I think beholder3 is trying to figure out current share of the photographers, using ILCs. If you are still using a Nikon D700 and just don't see a reason to upgrade, you count for Nikon, even if you haven't bought a camera for years. When you finally do buy a new camera, you will probably purchase a Nikon.

I do watch people's brand choices for ILCs when I am out and about and in the parks of the United States, I have not seen any Fuji cameras or Olympus cameras and only a few Sony. Mostly it is Canon and some Nikon. Obviously this is not market data or sales data, but I do find it interesting how traditional folks are staying. A co-worker of mine decided she wanted an ILC and she got a Canon T5 with a two lens kit. The price was right, I guess, and the whole mirrorless versus SLR thing didn't mean a thing to her. To her, they are all bigger than a camera phone and so she was going to need a dedicated bag for it, whatever she got.

I don't have any idea about worldwide market share of cameras currently in use, but I don't think sales numbers actually tell the full story.

[Mistral75]

See the last page of this document:

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/2018/IPS_MC_E.pdf

which is part of a presentation made today by Sony executives in the framework of their Investor Relations Day 2018:

Sony Global - Sony Global - Sony IR Day 2018

Sony state that the size of the still camera market is ¥2,400bn, in which they hold a 20% share. In particular, they hold

- 19% of the ILC market (lenses included), being #3 in this market and #1 in the mirrorless camera market
- 26% of the compact camera market, being #2 in this market and #1 in the premium sub-segment defined as follows: large image sensor (1/1.7 inch and over) or high zoom (20x and over).

[RonHendriks1966]

So Sony is in yen 1,5x Nikon and 5x Olympus. That is a big player. 24x Ricoh-Imaging.

[lesmore49]

Rondec says ;

" I do watch people's brand choices for ILCs when I am out and about and in the parks of the United States, I have not seen any Fuji cameras or Olympus cameras and only a few Sony. Mostly it is Canon and some Nikon."

I'm from the Canadian prairies and in my burg, I see pretty well what you see;

Same here, Canon dominates, then Nikon but not as common, a few Sony...and I think I've seen one Fuji, no Olympus...but a couple of Pentax in the past year or so.

The odd thing is that at the very few camera stores left in town anymore..there are stocks of Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fuji and Olympus, but no Pentax stock in the store. If you want Pentax here, you have to order yourself through online...or..alternately the local camera stores will order Pentax equipment..which is what I do, I can get extended warranty from the store.

So I don't know who is buying Fuji, Olympus out here. There seems to be about the same numbers of Sony as Pentax at the events I go to. But even that has changed markedly. About 3-5 years ago I go to an event and there would be about 5-7 people with a 'good' camera...a DSLR mostly. Now generally when I'm walking around an event, a lot of times, I'm the only individual with a DSLR...or mirrorless camera. The swing towards people using their cell phone for photography has been marked.

At bird watching events where a long telephoto is required, I see good cameras with telephotos...at local street events though, invariably cell phones are the choice and some of these cell phones are capable of excellent results in venues where extreme telephotos are not required.

When I walk around events with my K5 or K-1 and wide angle zoom, I believe I have now...over the past few years...morphed into an 'eccentric' in the view of other individuals .

[pentaxfall]

One of the Sony slide says "Action Plan: "Pursue the sports and education markets"". They know where is money

[Rondec]

Rondec says ;

" I do watch people's brand choices for ILCs when I am out and about and in the parks of the United States, I have not seen any Fuji cameras or Olympus cameras and only a few Sony. Mostly it is Canon and some Nikon."

I'm from the Canadian prairies and in my burg, I see pretty well what you see;

Same here, Canon dominates, then Nikon but not as common, a few Sony...and I think I've seen one Fuji, no Olympus...but a couple of Pentax in the past year or so.

The odd thing is that at the very few camera stores left in town anymore..there are stocks of Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fuji and Olympus, but no Pentax stock in the store. If you want Pentax here, you have to order yourself through online...or..alternately the local camera stores will order Pentax equipment..which is what I do, I can get extended warranty from the store.

So I don't know who is buying Fuji, Olympus out here. There seems to be about the same numbers of Sony as Pentax at the events I go to. But even that has changed markedly. About 3-5 years ago I go to an event and there would be about 5-7 people with a 'good' camera...a DSLR mostly. Now generally when I'm walking around an event, a lot of times, I'm the only individual with a DSLR...or mirrorless camera. The swing towards people using their cell phone for photography has been marked.

At bird watching events where a long telephoto is required, I see good cameras with telephotos...at local street events though, invariably cell phones are the choice and some of these cell phones are capable of excellent results in venues where extreme telephotos are not required.

When I walk around events with my K5 or K-1 and wide angle zoom, I believe I have now...over the past few years...morphed into an 'eccentric' in the view of other individuals .

The thing is that people are quoting sales numbers in dollars/yen, not units. It is entirely possible that Sony is selling fewer, high end cameras. It is also possible that at least till recently, Sony users with tech-crazy and ready to jump on the newest gear, even if their current camera was only a year or two old.

My feeling is that Canon and Nikon (and for sure Pentax) have more conservative photographers shooting with their gear who hang on to it till the bitter end and only upgrade when something stops working or it is about four generations out of date. Not as good for the bottom line, but if you are still shooting with a Canon T2i, then you are a Canon shooter, even if you haven't bought anything in the last few years.

[Mistral75]

So Sony is in yen 1,5x Nikon and 5x Olympus. That is a big player. 24x Ricoh-Imaging.

Sony's revenue from still cameras (ILCs, interchangeable lenses and compact cameras) are indeed:

• 0.70x those of Canon (480÷687)
• 1.33x those of Nikon (480÷361)
• 5.40x those of Fujifilm (480÷88.8)
• 8.66x (not 5x) those of Olympus (480÷55.4)
• and more than 24.7x those of Ricoh Imaging (480÷19.4, the latter including more than still cameras stricto sensu).

This explains in particular why Ricoh Imaging cannot do miracles and develop new products at the same pace as their competitors.

Olympus (the only company to provide such figure) spend 6.4% of their still camera revenues in associated R&D. Applying this ratio to all competitors, it would mean that the R&D budgets devoted to still cameras and lenses would be as follows:

• Canon: ¥44bn
• Sony: ¥31bn (excluding sensors)
• Nikon: ¥23bn
• Fujifilm: ¥6bn
• Olympus: ¥3.5bn
• Ricoh Imaging: ¥1.2bn.