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10-02-2018, 08:03 AM - 18 Likes   #1
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Camera industry 2018 - now doom is everywhere - shareholder tip: sell

After this Photokina I think the downward spiral of the already chaotic ILC dinosaur camera industry has gained a lot of momentum everywhere:
  1. Pentax is doomed since the 1970s. No changes.
  2. Sony A mount is doomed due to Sony FE mount getting all the love
  3. Nikon F mount is doomed due to Nikon Z mount now getting all the love and F mount is dead as A mount
  4. Canon EF mount is doomed due to Canon R mount now getting all the love and EF mount is dead as A mount
  5. Sigma SA mount is doomed due to Sigma L mount now getting all the love
  6. Sony FE mount is doomed since Sonys DSLM position suddenly went from monopoly to small player in a tiny tank with much bigger fishes, at least four of them. No sustainable strategy on the horizon.
  7. Nikon Z mount is doomed since with mediocre overpriced cameras and 3 clearly below average lenses nobody other than diehard fans will invest
  8. L mount is doomed because no significant players are supporting it. Where is the difference to Sigma SA mount?
  9. Canon R mount is doomed since Sony spec sheets look much nicer
  10. mFT is doomed since tiny sensors like mFT are eaten alive by smartphones. And Pansonic already jumped ship to FF.
  11. Olympus is doomed too. No major product announcement at Photokina, whaat? Double-doomed. A rejection of FF. An aging flagship body.
  12. Hasselblad. Well. Were they ever alive?
  13. Fuji X-mount is doomed since in spite of all their marketing they have not gained any significant traction and are even still behind tiny Sony. No FF even on the horizon. They are basically where Pentax was 5 years ago.
Cackle. Cackle.


All the while the total market is still shrinking with most players targeting the handful rich grandpas who do not mind shelling out two or three grand for photography toys with not even a single lens included.

All the while the real advancements in camera technology happen in non dinosaur ILC world regardless of with or without optical viewfinder: In smartphones, automotive and gadgets.

The dying mirrorless and DLSR industry has completely failed to innovate to attract new users. All they come up with is incremental changes and products which only cannibalize others.

I guess within 2-3 years we'll see a whole bunch of casualties from this situation. Probably not Canon because they will likely continue to extend their total domination.

Cackle.


In the meantime we all can ignore all this, buy nothing new at all, and go outside enjoying our existing toys and taking lovely shots for many years to come.


Last edited by beholder3; 10-02-2018 at 10:31 AM. Reason: olympus
10-02-2018, 08:06 AM   #2
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Ha ha My favourite post in a looooong time
10-02-2018, 09:05 AM   #3
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Haha watch the market shrink even more once the affluent grandpas realise their slim, sylph-like mirrorless body has to have heavy, REALLY heavy lenses strapped to it. And then their knees will give in, and their wallet, and their interest.
In the meantime I'll be shooting with K5 & 21mm Ltd and K3 with the 300 PLM wondering what all the fuss is about.
Doesn't anyone take photographs any more?
10-02-2018, 09:22 AM - 1 Like   #4
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The famous "I'm OK but everything else is going to heck " point of view.

I see no need to stress, for at least 5 years after one of these companies fail. Worry about camera company failures is at best, completely premature. All of it.

Once a camera company dies, and you can't pick up replacements for broken gear second hand, then would be a good time to deal with the situation, because it's already happened. . But, you can still buy used K-1000s, and how long has it been since those were produced? 15 years or more. If you can get what you want, what else is available is moot.

If you shoot at least 500 images week, you don't have time to ponder the future, much less stress about it. Shooting lots is good for your health.

10-02-2018, 09:41 AM   #5
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I’ll worry when my K10D breaks. Once that happens that will suggest how many years might be left in my KP and K-1. So if it doesn’t start up tonight I have 12 years of digital K-mount life. By age 75 I probably won’t care about any of this.
10-02-2018, 10:07 AM   #6
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You forgot to mention Olympus. They're doomed too!

No major product announcement.
A rejection of FF.
An aging flagship body.
10-02-2018, 10:19 AM   #7
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Us CBA/LBA bargain hunters cackle with glean at all this doom!

With legacy camera makers and legacy camera buyers dropping like flies, I foresee decades of garage sale deals.
10-02-2018, 10:29 AM - 1 Like   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by 6BQ5 Quote
You forgot to mention Olympus. They're doomed too!

No major product announcement.
A rejection of FF.
An aging flagship body.
Thanks. I edited the post. Olympus is doomed now as well.

---------- Post added 2nd Oct 2018 at 19:32 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Us CBA/LBA bargain hunters cackle with glean at all this doom!
Added some amount of cackling to the initial post. Green skin and black hat did not fit.

10-02-2018, 10:37 AM - 1 Like   #9
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They're all doomed because Samsung is going to come roaring back with forty-leven bodies, all with FF NX-mount, jillion-megapixel curved flexible sensors with dynamic range covering IR through Gamma, and self-aware superconducting microprocessors. Soon. Real soon. Any day now.
10-02-2018, 10:50 AM - 3 Likes   #10
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Has anyone noticed that, in all this confusion, pinhole cameras are alive and well, and showing no signs of disappearing? Essentially brand-agnostic, with no proprietary mount to worry about. I think the designer was onto something...
10-02-2018, 11:04 AM   #11
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My gear will keep working even if a manufacturer goes under. I expect 1 or more companies to go under within a few years because of the shrinking camera market. Wait and see.

This is a poor time to change brands unless your current system can't meet your photo needs. I wonder how people who jumped ship to the Samsung NX1 feel.
10-02-2018, 11:11 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by DeadJohn Quote
My gear will keep working even if a manufacturer goes under. I expect 1 or more companies to go under within a few years because of the shrinking camera market. Wait and see.

This is a poor time to change brands unless your current system can't meet your photo needs. I wonder how people who jumped ship to the Samsung NX1 feel.
If all else fails, back to my Program Plus and 645.
10-02-2018, 11:25 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
If all else fails, back to my Program Plus and 645.
I still have a working Super Program and a Program Plus, but if I have to go back to film I will be taking far fewer photos. The amount of posting on this forum will drop drasticly as well. Pentaxforums is doomed!
10-02-2018, 11:38 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
I still have a working Super Program and a Program Plus, but if I have to go back to film I will be taking far fewer photos. The amount of posting on this forum will drop drasticly as well. Pentaxforums is doomed!
It's different philosophy for sure. You pay for your film up front, and then race to get your money's worth before you upgrade the camera. With film, you buy the camera and are then committed to a lifetime of film purchases, and buying film when you didn't spend all your grocery money for the month.

I originally got into digital because I was having to scan so many images. That was worth it even though I couldn't get decent prints from my 800x600 sensor.

Now getting me to warm up the scanner is like going for my "yearly" checkup.. If you bother me long enough and often enough, I might get around to it.
10-02-2018, 11:41 AM - 2 Likes   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Hasselblad. Well. Were they ever alive?
Hasselblad? They make drones, right?
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