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11-08-2018, 10:12 AM   #1
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Canon starting to butcher Sony in FF mirrorless (as predicted)

Interesting how quick the collpase of Sony mirrorless happened:

Japanese retailer (BCN) marketshares of FF mirrorless by month:

https://photorumors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Sony-Nikon-Canon-full-fra...rket-share.jpg

Sony loosing 1/3 of their marketshare within just 2 months is a massive fail.

A single (!) Canon model now cut off 22,1% in the second month from Sony who are currently selling 16 () models and who had all the internet marketing mumbo-jumbo sales support anyone could ever get.

While Nikon's 2 models only got half of that (so 1/4 of Canons market performance each) it also invaded Sony ground semi-successfully.

Seems like Canon marketingwise again is doing everything right. And that with only a handful of native new dslm lenses.

I don't think such massive customer losses have happened to any maker any time before. Sony is the all-time loss leader now.

Usually North American and European photo markets have been lagging about 1 year behind the developments in Japan, so there is an interesting time ahead.

I wonder what will be left of Sony, once Canon brings out a dslm brother of their 5D.

11-08-2018, 10:33 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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It's really too soon to see how this plays out if this is an introductory bump or a long term trend.
11-08-2018, 10:53 AM   #3
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Canon is certainly a dominant force in any camera market it gets involved in. Will be interesting to see how well Nikon is faring with it's new mirrorless. Also interesting to see the affect that Canon and Nikon will have ...long term...on the complete mirrorless market, not just Sony.

I think as this mirrorless 'war' wages on, particularly with the addition of mirrorless cameras from the two heavy weights on the retail photography field...Canikon...I predict there might be some casualties. It will be interesting to see what happens and I hope ...as always...that Pentax is not affected in a negative sense.

As a side note, I've read quite a bit about the mirrorless, especially now that Nikon and Canon have entered the fray...but I still am unable to generate any interest in mirrorless. Maybe I've been using SLR/DSLR, mostly Pentax over the past half century and am too embedded with this 'old' technology. I mean I really like my old screw mount Pentaxes, my K mount SLR's and my DSLR's...mostly Pentax. They work so well, the images are so good (camera ability, not mine ) and even though some complain about how the mirrorless are less weight than my DSLR's...I don't notice a big difference...what is it a couple hundred grams or something.

Might be just a question that you can't get an old dog (like me) to learn new tricks. Whatever it is, I'm not...yet ...swayed by the new mirrorless stuff.
11-08-2018, 10:57 AM   #4
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While it's way too early to read anything into the numbers...after all we're at a funny time of year for toy sales...I would expect Canon and Nikon to assume their overall market position in the mirrorless segment, since they have the same marketing presence and same existing loyal base. So Canon for example would logically take 50% or so by the time things settle.

11-08-2018, 11:43 AM - 3 Likes   #5
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It's important to note that marketshare is a very poor metric for success in a dynamic industry where total demand can grow or shrink and the products are not easily interchangeable.

Some significant fraction on Canon's MILC sales are likely to Canon fans who would never have bought a Sony so Sony did not lose marketshare. And to the extent that Canon & Nikon increased overall interest in MILC, then unit or dollar sales of Sony cameras may well have increased.

Are Canon & Nikon stealing marketshare from a fixed-sized MILC market or are they growing the pie to the benefit of Sony, too?

P.S. This may also be a quirk of BCN's customer base. The top 50 best selling cameras on Amazon.com include 3 Sony A7 offerings but neither of the new Canon & Nikon MILCs.
11-08-2018, 11:50 AM - 1 Like   #6
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A couple of things to note.

First of all, most cameras have highest sales in the first few months after release. Some, like the D850, have staying power and continue to sell well. Others drop off the face of the earth to be superseded by newer models. Mirrorless is particularly this way, as it relies heavily on tech to sell new products.

Second, these stats are focused on Asia and Japan in particular. This is not necessarily true of Europe and North America where mirrorless sales have trailed SLR sales by a lot more. The mirrorless market in the US is a lot smaller and I doubt it will shift nearly as fast.

Anyway, Canon will do well, but it is way too soon to write off Sony.
11-08-2018, 12:45 PM   #7
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I think you’ll have to wait at least a year to see how things will go for them. Rumors are Canon will release a pro mirrorless body in February, probably a 5dsr replacement rather than a 1dx2 replacement but who knows with rumors it could all be wrong.

I think Canon did a much better job than Nikon on their release with a mid range body and high quality lenses than a high priced body and slower cheaper lenses. Reviews of the ef adapter look like ef lenses work perfectly on the R, I’ve only seen one on the ftz adapter but was with more third party lenses than f mount but I’m sure it will work good also.

Sony does have a 600/F4 coming out and with the release of the 400/2.8 this summer they will finally have lenses to challenge Canon and Nikon in the sport and wildlife area to go with the a9.

The only thing about mirrorless I’m interested in is the silent shutter and the possibility of having focus points cover almost the entire frame. As a wildlife shooting those two things could come in handy.
11-08-2018, 12:56 PM   #8
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Not remotely surprising considering the millions of Canon users that exist.

Not a great omen for consumer choice 3 years into the future

QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Interesting how quick the collpase of Sony mirrorless happened:

Japanese retailer (BCN) marketshares of FF mirrorless by month:

https://photorumors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Sony-Nikon-Canon-full-fra...rket-share.jpg

Sony loosing 1/3 of their marketshare within just 2 months is a massive fail.

A single (!) Canon model now cut off 22,1% in the second month from Sony who are currently selling 16 () models and who had all the internet marketing mumbo-jumbo sales support anyone could ever get.

While Nikon's 2 models only got half of that (so 1/4 of Canons market performance each) it also invaded Sony ground semi-successfully.

Seems like Canon marketingwise again is doing everything right. And that with only a handful of native new dslm lenses.

I don't think such massive customer losses have happened to any maker any time before. Sony is the all-time loss leader now.

Usually North American and European photo markets have been lagging about 1 year behind the developments in Japan, so there is an interesting time ahead.

I wonder what will be left of Sony, once Canon brings out a dslm brother of their 5D.


11-08-2018, 12:59 PM   #9
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This would seem to reinforce Ricoh holding back on the mirrorless band wagon while markets shake out. With the realization it's too soon to say much, would it be trademark infringement to suddenly start seeing "Sony is Doomed" all over the place?
11-08-2018, 01:16 PM   #10
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When Canon executives go on a hunt after Sony guys, they use Japanese samurai swords. Haven't you seen the Sony logo already got cut, it now displays "ony" as Canon have cut the "S" off the name.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 11-08-2018 at 01:24 PM.
11-08-2018, 01:27 PM   #11
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If one week Sony sells 99 out of the 100 mirrorless full frame cameras sold they have 99% market share.
If the next week two new competitors enter the race and each sell 20 mirrorless full frame cameras but this time 140 have been sold Sony's market share will plummet. But they will sell the same number.

I'm maths challenged. But this is what we're talking about isn't it?
11-08-2018, 01:31 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by officiousbystander Quote
If one week Sony sells 99 out of the 100 mirrorless full frame cameras sold they have 99% market share.
If the next week two new competitors enter the race and each sell 20 mirrorless full frame cameras but this time 140 have been sold Sony's market share will plummet. But they will sell the same number.

I'm maths challenged. But this is what we're talking about isn't it?
Depends on whether Sony's total sales dropped. It should be pretty easy to figure out. Why would anyone speculate about these things?

I reminded of when the K-1 came out and they said 50% of buyers were new to Pentax. How can you be sure 50% of these buyers aren't new to Canon and Nikon? I guess what you'll are saying is Sony's implementation is so good no Sony MILC user would want to go mainstream with a Canon or Nikon. I find that almost as hard to swallow as the notion they are all people who would have bought Sonys. But, all of them found something in the Sony system they found unpalatable, be it the name or something more concrete, lack of available native lenses or whatever. There could be many scenarios where Sony loses both some market share and some sales.

Last edited by normhead; 11-08-2018 at 01:43 PM.
11-08-2018, 02:15 PM   #13
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Much too early to read anything into this. Sony has done a very good job in the mirrorless space, and has brought a lot of new customers to ILC. I can't see them jumping ship any time soon. Let's see how things settle.

According to B&H, there were only two DSLRs released in 2018, the entry level compact Nikon D3500 (trying to mimic MILC size while retaining DSLR functionality), and the Pentax K1 Mark II. That's it. Nothing from Canon! So even the Big Boys can't play both games at once.

I too am glad that Ricoh hasn't shifted its attention from DSLR to mirrorless. There is still much development for them to do in the FF space.
11-08-2018, 02:51 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Interesting how quick the collpase of Sony mirrorless happened:...
The graph only shows percentages, doesn't indicate total sales or size of market, and emphasizes an unusual 2 months just after a new Canon release compared to more mature Sony products. The most reasonable conclusion from the graph is "Canon may have sold a lot of their new model". It doesn't say anything about Sony, nor much about Canon overall.

Canon may have sold zero DSLRs because mirrorless cannibalized the same customers, so Canon might go bankrupt. My statement is unlikely, but it's no less valid than your conjecture of Sony's failure.

The graph, without more context, belongs in the classic book "How to Lie with Statistics".
11-08-2018, 02:58 PM   #15
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I know I'm a bit of a broken record, but don't forget that a sizeable chunk of this mirrorless craze has to do with video...and that's an area where Sony has decades of experience over Canon and Nikon. I think it's way too early to be predicting the death of Sony.
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