Originally posted by Rico Let's hope the cost to manufacture actually goes down which is entirely possible with electronics.
Most of the cost of chips is in the development and yields. Material cost per chip would be the same assuming that the same sized wafers are used, that the process has the same number of steps, and yields remain the same between chips of the same size. So in an ideal world the cost of these sensors would be the same as existing full frame sensors.
However as feature size shrinks the yields typically go down, especially at the beginning until the process is fully optimized so I would expect these to be slightly more expensive because of that. Given the substantially higher pixel density there may be an additional layer needed for the support electronics which will add steps to the process and also further decrease yields. Here yield will be the key cost difference driver and that difference will likely decrease as the process matures.
Unfortunately the cost of sensors won't be decreasing like we have seen with so many other microchips. This is because the area of each type of sensor remains basically constant so the price decrease that have been seen from
Moore's Law with other chips don't really apply here. However image sensors have benefited from it by getting ever greater pixel densities for a given sensor area, and less noise at a given pixel size.