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01-16-2019, 01:11 PM - 1 Like   #16
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There are several criteria & categories depending on the context of the search. Nikon, Canon, Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, and other makers were included overall. The BCN, rankings awarded annually, does not concern me or affect my GAS status. :-)

01-16-2019, 01:55 PM - 1 Like   #17
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Is Canon in worse shape than Ricoh?

I'm not a financial accounting expert, so I might be way off here...

In the periods covered by the BCN surveys (regardless of what they're actually measuring), Canon's "share" was a a high of 63.3% but 57.4% in the last reporting year, representing a market drop of 5.9 points. Ricoh/Pentax moved from a high of 7.5% to their current 3.1, or a drop of 4.4 points.

As a measure of business performance over a period of time, isn't the shift in share more important than the actual absolute numbers?

Last edited by c.a.m; 01-16-2019 at 02:05 PM.
01-16-2019, 02:05 PM - 2 Likes   #18
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Many here seem to not understand that discontinueing the k500 and ks1 entry level lines has exactly the effect to sell much fewer units as reported here.

Pentax did intentionally drop the Rebel segment.

Anyone asking for a higher unit share asks for a k600.

A drop in share is only clearly bad if the product portfolio is comparable.
01-16-2019, 08:33 PM   #19
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If you look at the years when Pentax/Ricoh had a true lightweight entry level DSLR on the market for the whole calendar year, they tended to have a better year on the BCN Ranking (Kx, Kr, K-S1). By the way, the K-500 was never released in Japan.

They only ever got around 5% when they didn’t have one.

If you define the Pentax core market as enthusiasts, this data doesn’t indicate a collapse in that market.

However, I don’t think they did well with enthusiasts in 2018 either. The KP has been selling well ever since it was released, but I think they have s lot of customers hanging on for updates to other cameras. For whatever reason, they didn’t materialize in 2018.

01-16-2019, 08:56 PM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by c.a.m Quote
I'm not a financial accounting expert, so I might be way off here...

In the periods covered by the BCN surveys (regardless of what they're actually measuring), Canon's "share" was a a high of 63.3% but 57.4% in the last reporting year, representing a market drop of 5.9 points. Ricoh/Pentax moved from a high of 7.5% to their current 3.1, or a drop of 4.4 points.
Yeah, again, it's BCN, so useless IMHO, a stat reported by certain electronics goods chain stores in Japan who might cater for the low end.

I've never taken at face value their past claims that Canon sell more mirrorless there than Sony. For starters, Sony have their own stores, and that's where cashed up Japanese prosumers and Sony fanbois would tend to go. I think even niche brand Ricoh have their own shop in Tokyo, IIRC.

In the United States, surely B&H, Adorama, Amazon, etc are where most Pentax bodies are sold from these days, less so brick and mortar places that are themselves struggling.
01-16-2019, 09:01 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by c.a.m Quote
I'm not a financial accounting expert, so I might be way off here...

In the periods covered by the BCN surveys (regardless of what they're actually measuring), Canon's "share" was a a high of 63.3% but 57.4% in the last reporting year, representing a market drop of 5.9 points. Ricoh/Pentax moved from a high of 7.5% to their current 3.1, or a drop of 4.4 points.

As a measure of business performance over a period of time, isn't the shift in share more important than the actual absolute numbers?
Market share get a bit skewed anyway as the DSLR market is shrinking
Total sold DSLR units where more than twice as much in 2012 than in 2017. I have not yet seen any figures on sold units in 2018.

So if Ricoh lost more than half the market share in I a market that has shrunk to less than half it size. Then theys lost like 80% of the DSLR sales between 2012 and 2018.

But as these market share figures are only a small sample of the total sales, it not possible make a full conclusion on them.
01-17-2019, 01:09 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
it not possible make a full conclusion on them
It's not possible to draw a conclusion based on limited information.

QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
Ricoh lost more than half the market share in I a market that has shrunk to less than half it size.
The factor linking overall market sales amount and Pentax sales is no a constant figure. Some companies of the same sector do not have the same portfolio of products, that's why some companies get hit by market changes while other companies not covering all market segment are not impacted. I've seen a leading company covering all segments get hit hard by one of the market segment collapsing, while a smaller competition got better of not being a player in the collapsing market segment.

01-17-2019, 03:54 AM - 1 Like   #23
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I don't know that these numbers mean a whole lot, but I wouldn't see it as surprising that Pentax's share would drop when they didn't really release any "new" cameras last year. Yes, they released the K-1 II, but that was viewed primarily as an upgrade to the K-1 and in fact, those who already had a K-1 could choose to upgrade their camera bodies rather than purchase new. The KP came out in February of 2017 and the K70 came out summer of 2016. And the Q has gone away, which at one time was actually a decent seller in Japan.

It isn't that you have to release a new camera every year, but when you have almost no new products in a given year, your market share will probably drop. Probably the bigger question is if Pentaxians have given up their cameras for competitors cameras or if they continue to shoot with their K-1s and KPs, even if they were bought a couple of years ago, but that's the sort of thing this sort of survey won't tell you.
01-17-2019, 04:29 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
If you look at the years when Pentax/Ricoh had a true lightweight entry level DSLR on the market for the whole calendar year, they tended to have a better year on the BCN Ranking (Kx, Kr, K-S1). By the way, the K-500 was never released in Japan.

They only ever got around 5% when they didn’t have one.

If you define the Pentax core market as enthusiasts, this data doesn’t indicate a collapse in that market.

However, I don’t think they did well with enthusiasts in 2018 either. The KP has been selling well ever since it was released, but I think they have s lot of customers hanging on for updates to other cameras. For whatever reason, they didn’t materialize in 2018.
Good point.
I would be worried if they'd drop while releasing some good products in that year. In 2018, however, they only had the K-1 II, but:
- it was a minor update of the K-1
- it wasn't in a class well represented in general electronic stores, and it's not a volume product anyway
- they had an upgrade program, and many K-1 owners did that instead of buying a new K-1 II
(The D FA* 50mm is obviously a lens - if anyone wonders why I'm not mentioning the other good Pentax product released in 2018)
01-17-2019, 05:59 AM   #25
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If I depended on the this type of retailer, I wouldn't have any camera gear.
01-17-2019, 07:34 AM - 1 Like   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fogel70 Quote
Market share get a bit skewed anyway as the DSLR market is shrinking
Total sold DSLR units where more than twice as much in 2012 than in 2017. I have not yet seen any figures on sold units in 2018.

(...)
Eleven months (January-November) global shipments, CIPA data: 7,045,048 in 2017 and 6,255,735 in 2018 i.e. minus 11.2%.

If December follows the same trend as the previous months the yearly figure should be around 6.7 million units shipped in 2018 (7.6 million in 2017 and 16.2 million in 2012).

Yearly shipments of Japanese SLRs averaged on 3.7 million units in the '90s so the SLR market for Japanese manufacturers is still twice bigger than it was then.

Last edited by Mistral75; 01-17-2019 at 07:39 AM.
01-17-2019, 08:17 AM - 1 Like   #27
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The most up to date chart for CIPA sales: including Nov 2018.

Usually December, January, February are the hardest months for makers.




01-19-2019, 07:35 AM   #28
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Based on the historical data shown above I am confident the market for old school combustion engine cars will go away before the same happens for DSLR as subtype of ILC.

I guess the more pressing thing is that ILC as whole dinosaur (with or without mirror is no difference) is still being pushed aside by cameras in smartphones and the latter are innovating much faster than the likes of Fuji, Sony, Nikon, Canon, Pentax ever will.
01-19-2019, 09:22 AM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Based on the historical data shown above I am confident the market for old school combustion engine cars will go away before the same happens for DSLR as subtype of ILC.

I guess the more pressing thing is that ILC as whole dinosaur (with or without mirror is no difference) is still being pushed aside by cameras in smartphones and the latter are innovating much faster than the likes of Fuji, Sony, Nikon, Canon, Pentax ever will.
[Edited for Volvo clarification, grammar and typos] Constant innovation is feasible when Smartphone annual Unit Sales rise from 1.0 billion to 1.4 billion in five years (2013-2017).I guess that's one Smartphone for every person on earth since January, 2013. If ILC sales only dropped from roughly 12 million to roughly 7 million [/I]over roughly the same years then the real cost is lost opportunity - statistically, zero of the 6 billion phone camera buyers bought an ILC (granting that 120,000,000 compact digital sales did disappear).

I don’t really think smartphones have much to do with sophisticated enthusiast and flagship cameras. Essentially, convenient smartphone cameras have replaced 100% of the casual shooter ILC’s globally. That’s certainly the case in my family. In 2013 we probably had a dozen digital cameras ranging from Q’s to flagship ILC’s. Now we have 6 phones and K-1 and KP. My wife only gets her Q out for special uses such as her recent Holy Land tour. We sold the others and almost all their former images are now captured on phones.

The issue for ILC makers is whether they are capitalized correctly to do R&D, advance the tech and make a profit on the lower volume. In one way Pentax is fortunate not to need to carry massive, empty facilities any more. They don’t need to make MILC’s in their dead space. I suspect ILC’s will be exclusively a rich person’s hobby shortly, as they were twenty years ago at half the present unit volume. I just hope Pentax survives the next global recession.

FWIW, over the next two full product development cycles (16 years) EV’s will do to ICE vehicles what Smartphones have done to cameras in the larger sense (including compact cameras). Volvo, for instance, plans to eliminate ICE-only vehicles from their catalog by 2023. That’s only five years folks.

Last edited by monochrome; 01-19-2019 at 05:00 PM.
01-19-2019, 02:45 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Constant innovation is feasible when Smartphone Unit Sales rise from 1.0 billion to 1.4 billion 2013-2017. If ILC sales only dropped from roughly 12 million to roughly 7 million lover roughly the same years then the real cost is lost opportunity - statistically, zero of the 6 billion phone camera buyers bought an ILC (granting that 120,000,000 compact difital sales dis disappear).

I don’t really think smartphones have much to do with sophisticated enthusiast and flagship cameras. Essentiallly, convenient smartphone cameras have replaced 100% of the casual shooter ILC’s globally. That’s certainly the case in my family. In 2013 we probably had a dozen digital cameras ranging from Q’s to flagship ILC’s. Now we have 6 phones and K-1 and KP. My wife only gets her Q out for special uses such as her recent Holy Land tour, we sold the others and almost all their images are captured on phones.

The issues for ILC makers is whether they are capitalized correctly to do R&D, advance the tech and make profit on the lower volume. In one way Pentax is fortunate not to need to carry massive, empty facilities any more. They don’t need to make MILC’s in their dead space. ILCX’s will be exclusively a rich person’s hobby shortly. I just hope Pentax survives the next global recession.

FWIW, over the next two full product development cycles (16 years) EV’s will do to ICE vehicles what Smartphones have done to cameras in the larger sense (including compact cameras). Volvo, for instance, plans to eliminate ICE vehicles from their catalog by 2023. That’s only five years folks.
I think Volvo said that they were going to transition to hybrid or electric, but hybrids still are ICEs.

But I think generally you are right. We can buy what companies produce for us and right now, companies are sinking the majority of their efforts into new mounts and mirrorless cameras. I suppose it is understandable, considering that they are going to sell a lot more lenses and camera bodies than, for instance, if Nikon simply continued to update the D850 and D750 at regular intervals.
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