[monochrome]

Hmmm.. I'd think that the availability of an ergonomically-large MFT body could only grow Olympus volumes to encompass photographers who want a larger body. Olympus is only doing what both Canon and Nikon have done before -- offer both jumbo-body built-in-grip models and smaller models, too. This strategy lets dedicated enthusiasts or pros have both a large-body model for "serious" or studio work plus a small-body model for travel, street, and casual shooting with lenses and accessories interchangeable on both bodies.

Are people really going to refuse to buy a nice compact Olympus because Olympus also happens to offer a big one?

Refuse to buy a KP because Pentax also offers a K-1?

[reh321]

Likely what will happen is that lowering the price and capability of the body will accentuate the weaknesses of the technology.

So far to get an equivalent viewfinder to a DSLR requires a very expensive mirrorless camera. Some aspects of photography don't require a decent viewfinder and are productive with live view. But some do.

Have you used a Canon M50 ($650)? I believe most users will be satisfied with that level of EVF.

[RonHendriks1966]

Well in 2018 the revenue in yen from shipment camera's around the world was only -8 % compared to 2017. Mainly in compact camera's. So my take to this is that 2019 is not yet the year that the war in fullframe mirrorless will go full blown. .......but 2020 it will.

[biz-engineer]

Mainly in compact camera's. So my take to this is that 2019 is not yet the year that the war in fullframe mirrorless will go full blown. .......but 2020 it will.

Most probably, yes, too many options, too few customers, that's going to be a problem. Canon be looking at leveraging economies of scale to keep going, although it may not work because in this enthusiast market not everyone is as price sensitive vs feature sensitive.

---------- Post added 05-02-19 at 08:18 ----------

The ad-driven conspiratorial model you suggest really only works in growing markets where the consumer really has no choice except to buy from the conspirators.

I went to far up to conspiracy, the full frame mirrorless rush was probably due to camera makers saw Sony grabbing some market share and almost all decided to make a "me too" product, ending up all the the same room realizing they've spent a lot of R&D money to arrive there. Some may decide to retreat from the segment and do something else (if I now understand what you mean by "over the long run"

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Last edited by biz-engineer; 02-05-2019 at 12:19 AM.

[UlrichSchiegg]

For the amateur photographer there is little to no benefit DSLR versus MILC or vice versa. Regardless of the format. This is all a matter of individual perception. Every camera is fine. Emotionally this may be a different story.

For camera makers there is a big difference. Make costs for MILC bodies are much lower for the same format size. In addition, the average photographer appears to be willing to pay a higher prize for a MILC compared to a DSLR. I would assume the latter one is a lifestyle factor, disappearing or even inverting over time. More interestingly is the lens question - and little discussed. I would assume that for the high quality lenses, make costs for MILC lenses are higher compared to the DSLR lenses. This is just my guess. (Take a look of the Canon R 50mm 1.2 versus the Pentax DFA* 50mm 1.4).

Due to the shrinking market and high margins, I assume that there will a price race appearing, When this will appear is difficult to guess to me since the decline of the lifestyle factor is rather difficult to predict. I would assume this will push one or the other camera maker out of the market.

For DSLRs, it can well be that the system with the combination of bodies and lenses will remain competitive also in the long run.

To answer the question "Will the mirroless market implode in a price-war?" I would assume so since the market shrinks and the margins on MILC are high. By when? I don't know.

[altopiet]

Due to the shrinking market and high margins, I assume that there will a price race appearing,

If that happens quite a few smaller brands will either have to amalgamate or go under. In the long run, Canon will probably be the only brand sure of its survival due to its size.