[Rondec]

Its all about lenses now.

It's all about new mounts so that maybe legacy brands can sell new lenses to old customers.

Honestly, zooms have gotten good enough that there isn't a huge amount of improvement from generation to generation for most of them. If you have a Nikon 70-200 f2.8 VR I, you probably don't need the VR II unless your hands have gotten really shaky. And there are lots of used copies of a lot of these lenses floating around that brands have to deal with as well. I'm sure it will be a boost to them if Z mount customers go ahead and buy a couple of lenses each.

[Kunzite]

CIPA's analysis of 2018 and prediction for 2019:
http://www.cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESSRELEASE20190201_e.pdf

[RonHendriks1966]

CIPA's analysis of 2018 and prediction for 2019:
http://www.cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESSRELEASE20190201_e.pdf

The little problem for Ricoh is that dslr sales in Japan are dropping rapidly, more so then any other region. That makes selling k-mount a lot harder then all those new fancy mirrorless options. Expect a drop in sales in Pentax's homeland of -30 % in dslr. Hopefully GRIII can fix that sales drop.

[normhead]

I prefer to observe, predictions of doom rarely pan out. There is simply no reason for Pentax to lose DSLR sales faster than any other company. The companies who're really going to be hurt by the downturn in camera sales will be those who have in the last few years committed large amounts of money on camera body and lens development, expecting pay back based on numbers from 3 years ago. I doubt Pentax is in that boat. The declining market is bad for all camera companies, predicting it will be worse for Pentax is a stretch at best, disinformation at it's worst. Camera companies who based spreading R&D costs over millions more bodies will based on what they thought the market would be are the only ones at risk here. Pentax's conservative approach is an advantage in these times.

[beholder3]

The latest financial results: there are no winners in the camera industry
The latest financial results: there are no winners in the camera industry - Photo Rumors

Nikon - all previous forecasts were slashed.
Sony sees unit sales of all major hardware products failing in coming years.
Canon: Canon expects its annual operating profit to drop for the first time in three years.

Not all rosy for the makers.

The same applies to the low and medium skill end of pro photographers. The market doesn't need that many commercial photographers any longer and those with little to no USP versus a soccer mom / smartphone instagram shooter already were removed from the market as quality requirements rise. At least in German forums it is obvious that lots of meh commercial togs did not qualify and only remain there as ex-pro's.

This will continue to be the case in sync with the equipment shakeout.

For us as enthusiasts I do see contracting market more as a chance for better cost/benefit releationships than in booming times.

[Kunzite]

The little problem for Ricoh is that dslr sales in Japan are dropping rapidly, more so then any other region. That makes selling k-mount a lot harder then all those new fancy mirrorless options. Expect a drop in sales in Pentax's homeland of -30 % in dslr. Hopefully GRIII can fix that sales drop.

You're making up things, again.
Pentax sales won't necessarily follow the total Japanese DSLR sales. And if we'll see a few DSLR products this year (besides the DA*), I won't expect any -30% decline. Because I'm no Pentax basher.

[RonHendriks1966]

You're making up things, again.
Pentax sales won't necessarily follow the total Japanese DSLR sales. And if we'll see a few DSLR products this year (besides the DA*), I won't expect any -30% decline. Because I'm no Pentax basher.

Decline in shipmemts of dslr over the last three months where some -40 % compared to the same period a year ago. This is with the start of the new Canon and Nikon mirrorless camera's. If this continues then the decline is hard in 2019. It doesn't take a Pentax basher to see that this is not only happening to the other dslr makers, but also is going to hurd Pentax. No problem, we will see how this worked out with the publication of the BCN figures in januari 2020. O wait, you didn't believe those either......

[Kunzite]

You haven't even read my post.

[RGlasel]

Expect a drop in sales in Pentax's homeland of -30 % in dslr.

In units, CIPA is only forecasting a decline of 9.1% in Japan for interchangeable lens cameras, compared to a decline in 2018 of 13%. The 30% drop in DSLR shipments in Japan in 2018 combined with 8% growth in mirrorless is an anomaly, not seen anywhere else in the world. The mirrorless market in the rest of Asia dropped 17.6%, DSLRs 15%; DSLRs in the Americas only dropped 1.3%, while mirrorless shipments to the Americas were up 23.8% last year, they are still outnumbered by DSLRs 2.8 to 1 (whereas in Japan, mirrorless outnumbered DSLRs 1.26 to 1, the only place where this has occured). Would you risk your own money on your prediction of another 30% decline of DSLR sales in Japan?

[RonHendriks1966]

In units, CIPA is only forecasting a decline of 9.1% in Japan for interchangeable lens cameras, compared to a decline in 2018 of 13%. The 30% drop in DSLR shipments in Japan in 2018 combined with 8% growth in mirrorless is an anomaly, not seen anywhere else in the world. The mirrorless market in the rest of Asia dropped 17.6%, DSLRs 15%; DSLRs in the Americas only dropped 1.3%, while mirrorless shipments to the Americas were up 23.8% last year, they are still outnumbered by DSLRs 2.8 to 1 (whereas in Japan, mirrorless outnumbered DSLRs 1.26 to 1, the only place where this has occured). Would you risk your own money on your prediction of another 30% decline of DSLR sales in Japan?

The Japanese dslr market is in decline for a long time now. I wrote about this almost 4 years ago.....

Collapsing Japanese camera market! - PentaxForums.com

It is not an anomaly, but a market shift that is accellerating.

In december 2014 they shipped 110k units dslr to Japan and in december 2018 that was down to 34k units.

[Kunzite]

The 30% drop in DSLR shipments in Japan in 2018 combined with 8% growth in mirrorless is an anomaly, not seen anywhere else in the world.

What interesting DSLRs did we have in 2018? There were 2 Canon entry level, 1 Nikon entry level, and the K-1 II (which was also available as an upgrade).
If Canon and Nikon will push mirrorless this year, the DSLR shipments in Japan will further fall. However, Pentax might grow a little. With some well placed products.

[RonHendriks1966]

What interesting DSLRs did we have in 2018?

Well I don't see Canon and Nikon rushing back into dslr. They are running towards the Mirrorless Sun!

[Kunzite]

Do you realize that influences the DSLR (Japanese, but not only) market a lot, and not Pentax?

[RonHendriks1966]

Do you realize that influences the DSLR (Japanese, but not only) market a lot, and not Pentax?

When everyone and their pa and grandpa and great-grandpa (Japanese people get old) buy a mirrorless.........Why do you think that those Pentax users don't considder to switch? You think that Pentaxians are idiots that don't connect to the rest of the world?

[Kunzite]

You think that Pentaxians are idiots

No, but you seems to think so.
You're not worth it. Boriscleto'd.