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04-04-2019, 08:37 PM   #1
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FF mirrorless adoption super slow

From what I can see in terms of users and photos posted in Flickr, the adoption of new FF mirrorless models is slower than even before seen with DSLR.
I recall, the Pentax K1 pool on flickr got around 500 users in the first 3 months after the release of the K1. Currently on flickr, the Z7 pool counts about 200 members, EOS R gets about 500 members (I'd expect much more because Canon supposed to have 50% market share). Camera shops say that mirrorless sales are slow this year due to the selection of lenses for the Z mount and RF mounts not yet being good enough for customer to adopt those new product lines.

04-04-2019, 11:42 PM   #2
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People are waiting for wich mount will be winning and join the team then. In the mean time they also stopped buying dslr, just to have their money to their disposle for when they are ready to decide. Camera makers are not selling much at the moment.

Flickr took a nosedive into nothing over the past year also.
04-05-2019, 12:08 AM - 1 Like   #3
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Seconded that flickr has nose dived, but you don't seem to be taking sony into account, my gut feeling is that they'd have the largest FF mirrorless base.
04-05-2019, 12:29 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by sqrrl Quote
Seconded that flickr has nose dived, but you don't seem to be taking sony into account, my gut feeling is that they'd have the largest FF mirrorless base.
Yes you are right (I think). However, Sony got its share during the years when the camera market was more dynamic than now and at the time what drop Sony A7 sales was the size vs DSLR, but a lot of people weren't much concerned by the size of camera bodies, not everyone felt the need to switch to Sony. I can see some Sony cameras being used, but I fail to see Sony selling more than Canon EOS R and Nikon Z at the moment. At the moment I see Canon EOS R having more promotional presence.

---------- Post added 05-04-19 at 09:30 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
People are waiting for wich mount will be winning and join the team then. In the mean time they also stopped buying dslr, just to have their money to their disposle for when they are ready to decide
That's a good point. Surprisingly, the S1 / S1R are very well featured, but I don't see much of them. It looks like specifications/features aren't everything to gain business, legacy customer base has huge effect.

---------- Post added 05-04-19 at 09:37 ----------

I can see that Canon and Nikon do have a large based of DSLR customers and if they release good glass quickly they may still dominate (relatively) on the mirrorless systems. That said, I don't see volumes coming. Given the size of Canon and Nikon a few years back , they'll still be able to succeed but will have to downsize quite significantly. There is a much bigger risk of adoption failure for Panasonic, they start from their micro 4/3 user base, but how many of them can afford a S1/S1R FF system? It looks like a hard turn for Panasonic.

04-05-2019, 01:01 AM - 2 Likes   #5
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I'd imagine Ricoh executives are feeling quietly vindicated for their conservative approach to an entry into this market....
04-05-2019, 02:55 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Sandy Hancock Quote
I'd imagine Ricoh executives are feeling quietly vindicated for their conservative approach to an entry into this market....
I can see Ricoh exec. are rather satisfied of their decision, right now. And I can imagine Panasonic exec. having a stressful time with the S1 system, because I haven't see a single one in the hands of a customer, and I haven't seen it promoted by camera shops either...so to me , the S1 system doesn't look well engaged currently.

I now realize that developing primes lenses such as the DFA*50 is more useful to use customers than a mirrorless camera, TBH. We don't get has much spending money into a MILC body, as opposed to spending money into acquiring good glass.

When I look at the Tamron SP primes, I cannot believe how good those lenses are and how short lived they are due to the fact that they were designed for DSLR mounts, and now every other brand of camera transition to mirrorless mounts. IMO , mirrorless generate a lot of confusion, because now none of the systems is complete, and there is no much development on DSLR anymore, system offerings are cracked open.

MILC acts like every player give back its card set to the game master, all cards get mixed up and redistributed randomly, but now it's a big mess.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 04-05-2019 at 03:06 AM.
04-05-2019, 03:49 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
the adoption of new FF mirrorless models is slower than even before seen with DSLR.
It seems there are a lot of people with common sense beyond a minority of gadget collectors.

Adding a gimmick to a camera here and there and swapping mount A for mount B or replacing a real viewfinder with a tiny low res screen is no reason for heavy investments into cameras let alone lenses. Much less so when prices are hiked every year against the customers and for the investors.

Mirrorless seems like a last type of dinosaur trying to convince the world to accept overpriced gadgets.

A number of new mounts will not make it for more than 5 more years from today I bet.


There is a good reason why Sony recently has moved to hiding their camera business numbers even more from investors (they have always been very intransparent).
Both Canon and Nikon had pretty good transparency so far.

The next five years will be an endgame for this industry of non-innovative price raisers. And that will be good for all of us.
04-05-2019, 04:50 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
The next five years will be an endgame for this industry of non-innovative price raisers. And that will be good for all of us.
How can this be good for all of us? This year, there is be more camera shops closing doors, because they can't afford to wait one year just for the sake of having decent lens lineups to offer for mirrorless next year? I don't think local camera shops can survive a year without cash flow.

---------- Post added 05-04-19 at 13:53 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
In the mean time they also stopped buying dslr, j
Almost no one buys EF or F lenses because it's not the future, and almost no one buy Z or RF lenses because either they aren't available yet, or because the lineup isn't yet complete to make the right selection.

04-05-2019, 05:58 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I can see Ricoh exec. are rather satisfied of their decision, right now. And I can imagine Panasonic exec. having a stressful time with the S1 system, because I haven't see a single one in the hands of a customer, and I haven't seen it promoted by camera shops either...so to me , the S1 system doesn't look well engaged currently.

I now realize that developing primes lenses such as the DFA*50 is more useful to use customers than a mirrorless camera, TBH. We don't get has much spending money into a MILC body, as opposed to spending money into acquiring good glass.

When I look at the Tamron SP primes, I cannot believe how good those lenses are and how short lived they are due to the fact that they were designed for DSLR mounts, and now every other brand of camera transition to mirrorless mounts. IMO , mirrorless generate a lot of confusion, because now none of the systems is complete, and there is no much development on DSLR anymore, system offerings are cracked open.

MILC acts like every player give back its card set to the game master, all cards get mixed up and redistributed randomly, but now it's a big mess.
I think at least here in the US the Panasonic started shipping a day or two ago, so I wouldn't imagine that there are many out there.

As far as FF goes for Canon and nikon, I think people aren't quite convinced. They are missing key features that their current bodies have, and at least for Canon is concerned the crop in video. It will be interesting to see where things go.

04-05-2019, 09:38 AM - 2 Likes   #10
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I love my K-1 but I don’t fully understand the angst and grumpyness that is notable on PentaxForums towards mirrorless. I know that it gets played up as a zero-sum game (DSLRs are dead and only mirrorless will exist in the future) so I guess that could feel threatening. DSLR isn’t going anywhere... especially (it seems) here in Pentaxland. It does seem silly to deny that there are some advantages generally with “mirrorless” cameras but it also seems that just like many types of cameras have coexisted for many decades, so will DSLRs and mirrorless. I think it might turn out to be short-sighted for Ricoh to not offer (read: not REPLACE) a mirrorless as that cuts out a segment of photographers who will look for that... but as we know, their resources are what they are so they push forward. No one will pry anyone’s DSLR out of their hands. Again, not sure where the concern comes from.

And since it was mentioned, I think the Panasonic S1 is actually the mirrorless camera that Is most like Pentax of all released (maybe the one they should have made, mount aside.) it’s built like a tank, stabilized sensor, overall good ergonomics, highest res EVF on the market (I could focus all my old manual lenses with accuracy at eye-level.) Sure, it won’t be for everyone and just like the K-1 won’t be either, they don’t have to. They legitimately have their own place.
04-05-2019, 10:03 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by sunny16 Quote
It does seem silly to deny that there are some advantages generally with “mirrorless” cameras but it also seems that just like many types of cameras have coexisted for many decades, so will DSLRs and mirrorless.
A lot of people struggle to see any advantage of a mirrorless camera. There are advantages for camera makers: less parts, more simple to assemble, no need of calibration of AF in the assembly line, simpler firmware (no need to multiplex logic between PDAF sensing, AE sensing, with mirrorless everything is done by the same image sensor).

QuoteOriginally posted by sunny16 Quote
, highest res EVF on the market
Would that sentence alone mean that there is an effort to improve EVF comfort that wasn't even something to work on DSLR? If yes, how can mirrorless be an advantage if it must be improved to get closer to a DSLR vision?

Knowing about marketing => mirrorless equal. making DSLR cameras and lenses obsolete in order to start over again selling complete new systems to customers. I call this a business advantage for running a camera business, but I wouldn't call it an advantage for customers.

The absence of advantage for customers is that a lot of customer keep using their DSLR. A lot of Canon DSLR users are just happy with their DSLR, they don't rush to get a mirrorless model, simply because there is no reason to do so.

Camera shops tell me, mirrorless is better, you should buy one. I say ok "why is mirroless better?" and the answer is either silence, or the answer is "it's better because it's better". I say, Ah ok you are right, here is my credit card

Last edited by biz-engineer; 04-05-2019 at 10:09 AM.
04-05-2019, 10:18 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
How can this be good for all of us? This year, there is be more camera shops closing doors, because they can't afford to wait one year just for the sake of having decent lens lineups to offer for mirrorless next year? I don't think local camera shops can survive a year without cash flow.
For the shrunken market size there are way too many camera shops still and their existence doesn't provide a lot (in my view: zero) advantages.
I'd be rather happy if all brick and mortar camera shops closed tomorrow. If there is way to speed this process up, fine.

They are about as important as horse carriages are to daily commuting. Not.
04-05-2019, 10:32 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
How can this be good for all of us? This year, there is be more camera shops closing doors, because they can't afford to wait one year just for the sake of having decent lens lineups to offer for mirrorless next year? I don't think local camera shops can survive a year without cash flow.

---------- Post added 05-04-19 at 13:53 ----------


Almost no one buys EF or F lenses because it's not the future, and almost no one buy Z or RF lenses because either they aren't available yet, or because the lineup isn't yet complete to make the right selection.
What is your source for sales, or lack of sales for EF and F lenses?
04-05-2019, 10:35 AM - 1 Like   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
What is your source for sales, or lack of sales for EF and F lenses?
In the past, you'd buy a DSLR lens assuming that you would keep using it for a long , while upgrading bodies as they improve. If you might be getting a MILC in the future, why would you buy a EF or F lens now? And if the answer is "I can use a mount adapter" than what is the advantage of a mirrorless body (based on MILC lenses being sharpness thank to the shorter flange distance)?
04-05-2019, 10:55 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
When I look at the Tamron SP primes, I cannot believe how good those lenses are and how short lived they are due to the fact that they were designed for DSLR mounts, and now every other brand of camera transition to mirrorless mounts.
Not shedding a tear for Tamron after they've abandoned k-mount. If they need to sell more lenses they can come to us. Or not, their call. I think there would be a market for their 85mm f1.8 lens with a k-mount on the back side. In a way I'm surprised Ricoh hasn't worked with them on this one and had a third rebuilt Tamron-based lens in the stable.

Eh, then again, we've got the FA 77. Never mind.
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