[Larrymc]

Make of this what you will.

Photographic industry in freefall? Camera shipments down a shocking 35% | Digital Camera World

happy discussions!

[beholder3]

Canon's predictions were pretty accurate that means.

It also confirms that it was/is stupid to buy for lots of $$$ into new mounts last year, this year, the next or the year after that. The latest generation of dinosaurs from Caniko$onyfuji might not live all that long and major price reductions can be expected.

Goodbye quarterformat mFT.


And it is clear that Ricoh Management have been class leading wise to not spray their money on new adventures but slow down releases and investment to a self sustaining level.

[Belnan]

Im not surprised, the photography industry is kind of like the canary in the coal mine. The economy in canada isnt what it was, costs go up faster than wages. Only the wealthy still have money to spare, that and people spend all of their extra cash on cell phones.

[derekkite]

Canon's predictions were pretty accurate that means.

It also confirms that it was/is stupid to buy for lots of $$$ into new mounts last year, this year, the next or the year after that. The latest generation of dinosaurs from Caniko$onyfuji might not live all that long and major price reductions can be expected.

Goodbye quarterformat mFT.


And it is clear that Ricoh Management have been class leading wise to not spray their money on new adventures but slow down releases and investment to a self sustaining level.

Yes. Survival in this market is the key. I listened to someone who was getting 35 cents per image use on a stock site for her photographs. Photos shot with probably $5k worth of gear.

I think this reflects the slowdown in the Chinese economy as well.

[Larrymc]

And it is clear that Ricoh Management have been class leading wise to not spray their money on new adventures but slow down releases and investment to a self sustaining level.

My thoughts exactly!

[Larrymc]

Im not surprised, the photography industry is kind of like the canary in the coal mine. The economy in canada isnt what it was, costs go up faster than wages. Only the wealthy still have money to spare, that and people spend all of their extra cash on cell phones.

Among the not so wealthy only the not so trendy frugal have money to spare.

[Belnan]

Among the not so wealthy only the not so trendy frugal have money to spare.

Yes indeed.

[tvdtvdtvd]

I do think this reflects the maturity of the digital market along with the incursion of smart devices on the lower end. The big boon in
DSLR sales that occurred in the '00's was never going to be sustainable long term. Smart devices will continue to nibble away
the casual shooter market at the lower end. Dedicated cameras will continue on as mostly professional and prosumer gear
for those willing and wanting to push the medium to its fullest.

I disagree that there is no place for a new mount or sensor format or ?, but it will have to bring with it something game changing.
Fresnel pancake zooms, for example.

[c.a.m]

The DCW piece is quite shallow in its analysis, IMO. Based on a single month year-to-year segment of data (Feb 2019 compared to Feb 2018), DCW concludes that "the camera industry has gone from decline to freefall." It's not clear how they arrived at their "shocking" conclusion.

They could have compared the data from December 2018 and January 2018. January 2018: 675,000 units; December 2018: 684,000 units. According to the data, all monthly shipments in 2018 were higher than in the first month of that year.

I'm not a business analyst, but I do know that there are many ways to analyze data. Am I missing something?

- Craig

[ffking]

Sometimes one has to look no further than oneself - I've no need or inclination (or money, for that matter) to buy a new camera - and I don't expect that to change until the K-1's images start looking inadequate - which I don't see happening anytime soon. There mustbe many, many users of all systems in the same position with younger people not getting the ILC habit , and not being encouraged to by opinion formers or culture. That last bit will change, but things will get worse first.

[BigMackCam]

I've moved this thread to the "Photographic Industry" forum, as it covers the entire digital photography market

[rangercarp]

Sometimes one has to look no further than oneself - I've no need or inclination (or money, for that matter) to buy a new camera - and I don't expect that to change until the K-1's images start looking inadequate - which I don't see happening anytime soon.

I am still pretty happy with my K-5. If money was no object, I would have upgraded to the K-1, but in the current chapter of my life, it is hard to justify that cost when the K-5 is good enough. With each new model, less and less people feel the need to upgrade, so the camera companies need to rely on new users for sales.

[lesmore49]

I must be the exception to the rule, which wouldn't surprise me.

I just recently bought a new Ricoh GR ll (ASP-C sized sensor) and the prime reason was that it can take higher image quality pictures, than what my cell phone is capable of and is about the same size. I carry the little mighty mite around in a small belt loop bag on a daily basis....because you never know....

But I'm aware that I'm the exception to the rule and it's largely due to the fact that I've been a avid camera enthusiast for many decades. I know Cell Phone cameras can take some excellent photos, but I like to enlarge some of my pics and I feel that a cell phone, top quality version included wouldn't meet my persnickety standards.

Most people I know though are more than happy with their pics from a cell phone. Interesting to see what will develop in cell phone image quality within the next 5-10 years. I've got a pretty good idea.....

[The Squirrel Mafia]

All one has to do is look around. When you go to a tourist destination, how many people are shooting with their phones versus a some kind of ILC? How many of your friends are interested in buying a new ILC? How many of your family members want a new ILC? The grand majority of people prefer capturing an image or video quick & easy with the least amount of effort. Just take a look at all the social & photography sites. There are more people shooting with their phones than anything else.

My wife doesn't want to shoot her camera anymore. Too much hassle, complication, & weight for her. My niece is no longer shooting her Nikon D5200 & lenses either. She doesn't want to deal with the heft, complication, & bulk. Neither of them wants to waste any time processing photos on a PC after. They just want to shoot & see their photos & videos quickly plus share them on the fly too.

But yeah. It's all simple mathematics. There are less people wanting an ILC versus those that want a smartphone. The ILC market is only going to get more expensive as the years go by. This is also part of the reason why I'm waiting for that K-3II replacement. I'm waiting to see where everything is heading before I commit to buying more gear. I'm still doing fine with my K-50 bodies & 5 lenses. I guess we'll see what the future brings. The one that might be affected the most will more than likely be the DSLR, but I don't foresee it going extinct for at least another 7 years, but sales will start to drop due to the newer MILC bodies & smartphones.

Last Saturday I drove up to the Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve State Natural Reserve & it was packed. I mean super packed. It took me about 1/2 an hour to move about 2 miles. Too much traffic. Once I got off the car, grabbed my gear, & started hiking around the fields, I noticed tons of people on their phones. I probably saw about 6 CaNikon DSLR cameras & 2 Sony MILC cameras. Outside of my Pentax, I didn't see anyone else with a Pentax. I'd say there were easily about +-5,000 people out there. Not everyone was on the main reserve & there are flowers everywhere, so everyone was kind of spread out all over the place. Think about it. That is a massive difference between the use of ILC cameras & smartphones.

Like Metallica once said, "Exit ILC! Enter smartphone! We're off to a much more simpler land!" Actually, that's not even close. Hahaha! All I can say is that things are not looking too good in the ILC market. I much prefer an ILC camera over a smartphone too.

[photoptimist]

ILCs have been niche devices for most of their nearly 90 years of existence. In the early days, few people took photographs and most those who did used cheap consumer cameras. Brownies, instamatics and pocket 110s were the phone cameras of their eras and would have outnumbered ILCs at Antelope Valley some decades ago.

ILCs may have bloomed for time when they became the preferred chest bling of the suburban middle class. However, most of those cameras weren't bought by photographers, they were gadgets-du-jour bought by people keeping up with the Joneses. Now, the Joneses have moved on to other displays of conspicuous consumption (e.g., posting selfies at glamorous locations) and taken all those ILC buyers with them.

The abandonment of standalone cameras by people who never really were photographers will certainly hurt traditional camera makers who depended on mass sales to the mass makert. But serious photographers (hobbyists, artists, and pros) still exist and still want high-performance cameras with ergonomics, dedicated controls, and imaging performance that no smartphone can begin to offer. It may be true that almost everyone now has a camera (in their phone) but I would not be surprised if the percentage of serious photographers in the total population is as high as ever. In fact, that % may be the highest ever because phones now give everyone a chance to try photography and then outgrow the phone.

Ricoh's strategy of focusing on photographers (not gadget buyers) looks really good right now.