[Serkevan]

But JIP already bought Olympus...

They also bought Vaio, so I guess it's all in the family .

Get ready for the *inhales* Solympus OM-D Alpha-M7R1 Mark 1

[Ivan]

In modern business, it is normal when a company is unprofitable, you can draw whatever reports you want. A company can be unprofitable for decades. Why companies open themselves up like that, I don't know. What is happening in the economy is what I fear. And one more thing, for a second I thought it was the Canon forum.

[beholder3]

A company can be unprofitable for decades.

And other ones can be closed down after only 2 quarters in the red with poor perspectives.

[Ivan]

I completely agree. Why so I can only guess. One of the reasons may be a connection with the state, or a brand as a flag. Well, a Mercedes cannot go broke, never. Only if Germany ceases to exist. To simplify greatly. There may be many reasons.
But it seems to me that the success of the company is not in the fact that talented people work in it and produce a quality product, completely different mechanisms work in the modern world.

[Rondec]

I think the big thing now is diversification. Odds are good that the digital photography market is going to gradually decrease. Phones cameras are decent enough for most folks and most ILCs do not need to be replaced but every five to seven years.

If your only thing is photography, then you are going to struggle going forward. I know Nikon does some other things with optics and sensors, but they probably need to figure out some other things they are good at. Maybe they should open a shop on Etsy for "Nikon Quilts and Other Things..."

[Ivan]

I will not develop the theme of gloves, hats or T-shirts, so as not to offend anyone. But the changes in the economy look like this, it will be bad for everyone. From bag makers to aircraft makers. Here you won't get off with creative solutions. Let's go back to our rams, the ability to write a high-quality video opened new perspectives for several brands. Those who delayed lost their market share. The tendency remains in principle. Sales volumes in general will not return to their previous volumes, so we will see how companies can adapt.

[Pål Jensen]

I wonder how they got here? The writing has been on the wall for a long time. The switch to digital was obviously a preliminary rush. The initial rapid improvements in sensor tech couldn't last. That the P&S would shrink was also unsurprising the moment the first decent cell phone cameras was released.
Nikon was once where they now want to be; they sold cameras to serious hobbyists and professionals at 25% higher prices than the competition. In the 70's they were conservative but that didn't prevent them from being "the cameraman's camera". Canon started to eat into their territory (the first Canon F-1 never got a strong foothold into the pro market) so Nikon challenged Canon's (and Pentax and Minolta) with cheaper bodies at competitive prices. The rest is history.
The brand value obtained from being the camera pros are using have almost completely lost its cachet. The typical photo journalist probably use a cell phone camera anyway. Now whats left of the volume market is about being new and a tech-image. Also being available in outlets where electronic gadgets companies are ever present. And of course the photo enthusiast group who is not large enough to sustain the volumes of Nikon and Canon....

---

Last edited by Pål Jensen; 11-08-2020 at 01:54 PM.

[LeeRunge]

Both Nikon and Canon still have a ton of users with DSLR’s who many of which will slowly move into mirrorless as they need. Probably professionals first once the pro body’s start coming out in mirrorless in the next year. Both of them have lens lineups that are filling out pretty fast. After heavily looking at the Nikon Z6ii and Canon R6 I don’t see a whole lot of difference in practical use between the two so for me personally I’ll probably pick up a Z camera and adapter for my Nikon glass eventually. No rush, which is the problem for both Canon and Nikon. The DSLR’s are really good so there isn’t any rush. Sony is likely going to loose market share after making big gains being first in mirrorless as that transition happens. I think Canon already took a chunk this year. That will only get worse for them once the lens lineups fill out and third party starts building into NIkon/Canon as the mirrorless users increase.

Why jump to mirrorless? Video (a ton of business and users demand both now) IBIS, sync ibis with the VR lenses. The AF IMO is already good enough on the latest DSLR’s (Except Pentax) so it’ll just be better but that’s not a draw to mirrorless, IBIS is though. Also the lenses do seem to be more compact which is pretty nice for travel. What specifically is luring me as a hobby user is the travel zooms. I have an OMD which i bought to test the mirrorless waters (EM10 ii) and I like it. A 24-200 and Z6ii would cover most of my typical needs and being able to carry over my F lenses with the FTZ adapter makes that pretty painless and it’s more compact than my D750. Switching to Sony or Canon makes no sense. I expect that’s the case for many, they just don’t need to move over yet.

A TON of wedding photographers are using D750’s and will probably be moving into Z6 eventually as they wear them out. I don’t know what a typical wedding photographer shoots a year but I would expect 50-100,000 shots on a body that’s rated for a couple hundred thousand. Those will eventually need to be replaced and the D780 costs the same as a Z6ii so why not.

The entire market is shrinking down and will continue to the point of being only pro’s making a living with camera’s and very serious enthusiasts or “camera nerds” buying the latest features.

That should scare Pentax more than anyone as they don’t offer the latest features and aren’t the choice of the majority of professionals. But maybe they have a business model to support selling a few thousand cameras a year who knows. But it can’t be good having such small income for Ricoh if they ever want to invest in R/D for future body’s and lenses. Just looking at the K33 thread many here won’t buy that until it’s drastically on sale or used. That can’t be good for Pentax. They also need to sell camera’s and lenses.

For all the grief in this thread towards Nikon. It has fielded (and Canon) vastly more lenses in the past two years then Pentax to get mirrorless ready for full time use with the lenses people are used to from the previous mounts. The low prices reflect how serious they are in getting people into their mount NOW because that will keep them in the brand for a decade or more. Just as your purchases of Pentax glass have kept you here with Pentax. People in general don’t like switching brands, it’s super expensive and you need a really good reason to do it. Youtubers do it all the time, but when you make 1500 dollars per 500k views and can milk a dozen videos off a switch it pays to do that then sell it quick into the next system.

Will Nikon go under? Maybe, but honestly I would expect Ricoh to quietly turn the lights out on Pentax before I saw that happen. Personally I hope they all weather the downturn in the market and learn how to operate with less camera sales because smartphones aren’t going to get worse.

[clackers]

Will Nikon go under? Maybe, but honestly I would expect Ricoh to quietly turn the lights out on Pentax before I saw that happen.

Unfortunately, I think it's the other way round, simply out of basic finances, nothing to do with 4k video or whatever.

Those losses are *gigantic*, and next year's will be even bigger.

Nikon's not a tiny division of some much larger conglomerate so it has to seek funding from outside banks just to operate.

Why would you approve them a loan to continue? Why would you invest in a loss making company in a declining market that as you say, will only decline further?

[LeeRunge]

Unfortunately, I think it's the other way round, simply out of basic finances, nothing to do with 4k video or whatever.

Those losses are *gigantic*, and next year's will be even bigger.

Nikon's not a tiny division of some much larger conglomerate so it has to seek funding from outside banks just to operate.

Why would you approve them a loan to continue? Why would you invest in a loss making company in a declining market that as you say, will only decline further?

If the existing base of users they have doesn’t buy enough to keep them afloat and soon then I fully agree that they’re at the most risk. Everyone else seems a small part of a giant electronics conglomerate.

Do you think Sony’s going to stick around if Canon takes chunks of the mirrorless market? They’re discounting body’s like the A7Rii very aggressively. That camera is $1300 from 3000 a few years ago. Canon seems to have got it’s footing with the R5/6.

If I were a bank I don’t think I’d be loaning any camera company money right now.

[clackers]

If the existing base of users they have doesn’t buy enough to keep them afloat and soon then I fully agree that they’re at the most risk. Everyone else seems a small part of a giant electronics conglomerate.

Do you think Sony’s going to stick around if Canon takes chunks of the mirrorless market? They’re discounting body’s like the A7Rii very aggressively. That camera is $1300 from 3000 a few years ago. Canon seems to have got it’s footing with the R5/6.

If I were a bank I don’t think I’d be loaning any camera company money right now.

I think you're spot on, Lee, on all points.

One of the activist investors in Sony wants them to get out of cameras, its profits have absolutely tumbled. He's already succeeded in getting them to shove cameras into a consumer electronics division that can be sold as required, it can no longer hide within the sensor division.

[MarkJerling]

Unfortunately, I think it's the other way round, simply out of basic finances, nothing to do with 4k video or whatever.

Those losses are *gigantic*, and next year's will be even bigger.

Nikon's not a tiny division of some much larger conglomerate so it has to seek funding from outside banks just to operate.

Why would you approve them a loan to continue? Why would you invest in a loss making company in a declining market that as you say, will only decline further?

Several of Nikon's larger shareholders are banks and they're still part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries who's also a shareholder, so far as I can tell. Or do I have that wrong?

[Ivan]

Both Nikon and Canon still have a ton of users with DSLR’s who many of which will slowly move into mirrorless as they need. Probably professionals first once the pro body’s start coming out in mirrorless in the next year. Both of them have lens lineups that are filling out pretty fast. After heavily looking at the Nikon Z6ii and Canon R6 I don’t see a whole lot of difference in practical use between the two so for me personally I’ll probably pick up a Z camera and adapter for my Nikon glass eventually. No rush, which is the problem for both Canon and Nikon. The DSLR’s are really good so there isn’t any rush. Sony is likely going to loose market share after making big gains being first in mirrorless as that transition happens. I think Canon already took a chunk this year. That will only get worse for them once the lens lineups fill out and third party starts building into NIkon/Canon as the mirrorless users increase.

Why jump to mirrorless? Video (a ton of business and users demand both now) IBIS, sync ibis with the VR lenses. The AF IMO is already good enough on the latest DSLR’s (Except Pentax) so it’ll just be better but that’s not a draw to mirrorless, IBIS is though. Also the lenses do seem to be more compact which is pretty nice for travel. What specifically is luring me as a hobby user is the travel zooms. I have an OMD which i bought to test the mirrorless waters (EM10 ii) and I like it. A 24-200 and Z6ii would cover most of my typical needs and being able to carry over my F lenses with the FTZ adapter makes that pretty painless and it’s more compact than my D750. Switching to Sony or Canon makes no sense. I expect that’s the case for many, they just don’t need to move over yet.

A TON of wedding photographers are using D750’s and will probably be moving into Z6 eventually as they wear them out. I don’t know what a typical wedding photographer shoots a year but I would expect 50-100,000 shots on a body that’s rated for a couple hundred thousand. Those will eventually need to be replaced and the D780 costs the same as a Z6ii so why not.

The entire market is shrinking down and will continue to the point of being only pro’s making a living with camera’s and very serious enthusiasts or “camera nerds” buying the latest features.

That should scare Pentax more than anyone as they don’t offer the latest features and aren’t the choice of the majority of professionals. But maybe they have a business model to support selling a few thousand cameras a year who knows. But it can’t be good having such small income for Ricoh if they ever want to invest in R/D for future body’s and lenses. Just looking at the K33 thread many here won’t buy that until it’s drastically on sale or used. That can’t be good for Pentax. They also need to sell camera’s and lenses.

For all the grief in this thread towards Nikon. It has fielded (and Canon) vastly more lenses in the past two years then Pentax to get mirrorless ready for full time use with the lenses people are used to from the previous mounts. The low prices reflect how serious they are in getting people into their mount NOW because that will keep them in the brand for a decade or more. Just as your purchases of Pentax glass have kept you here with Pentax. People in general don’t like switching brands, it’s super expensive and you need a really good reason to do it. Youtubers do it all the time, but when you make 1500 dollars per 500k views and can milk a dozen videos off a switch it pays to do that then sell it quick into the next system.

Will Nikon go under? Maybe, but honestly I would expect Ricoh to quietly turn the lights out on Pentax before I saw that happen. Personally I hope they all weather the downturn in the market and learn how to operate with less camera sales because smartphones aren’t going to get worse.

I completely agree. And one more thing, when I hear again how smartphones are compared with even amateur photographic equipment, I understand how many unnecessary people are in photography. My wife makes very realistic drawings, but these are not photographs.

---------- Post added 11-09-20 at 03:29 AM ----------

I will add. Why upgrade to a mirrorless? Although I would like to visit the service less often.

[Rondec]

Whether banks loan Nikon money probably depends on how they view Nikon's restructuring plans going forward. If Nikon is willing to cut operating costs enough, I think banks would be very amenable to loaning them money.

[Ivan]

Banks are not interested in drowning large companies, this only happens when there are too many such companies