mirrorless sales down -14.8% in units and -19.1% in value

beholder3 · 07-03-2019, 02:22 AM

It will be interesting to see the next quarterly figures in summer.

Its kind of sad to see how poorly they all manage to draw in new photographers.

I bet competition will get much more fierce (and prices will get under even more pressure) in the next months and years.

Good times to come.

biz-engineer · 07-03-2019, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by beholder3

Good times to come.

At the moment, there is a high risk that some of the new mounts won't survive. The tough pill to swallow end of 2019, 2020, 2021, when sales aren't matching the total amount of R&D spent.

**Rondec** · 07-03-2019, 02:39 AM

The odd thing about it is that this is in a situation where there have been no new SLRs released for quite awhile and a number of MILCs have hit the market in the last six months -- 2 each from Canon and Nikon, 1 from Panasonic, and I think the OMD EM1x was released at the beginning of this year too. By all accounts, mirrorless sales should be far out stripping SLR sales. Instead we see a bit of a decline for both. Clearly the market is just slowing. People are satisfied with what they have and even a new MILC with an f2 zoom and a million PDAF points on the sensor isn't going to drive them to buy a new camera.

It does seem as though, with regard to cameras in use, SLRs still vastly out number MILCs. I guess the question is if you are shooting with a D5300 or Canon 80D, when time comes that you need to replace your camera, do you pitch over your SLR for an MILC or just buy whatever the newest SLR camera from your brand with the right sensor size. My guess is that inertia and lenses keep many people shooting with the same mount, even if they could use an MILC with an adapter and keep most of the same functionality.

**clackers** · 07-03-2019, 03:42 AM - **2 Likes**

Fascinating discussion, guys, high quality stuff. Good stats by Beholder, excellent analysis by the rest of you blokes, makes for great reading.

LensBeginner · 07-03-2019, 06:19 AM

All two (and of course the third) lines are still above the polynomial trendline... whatever "smoothing" they decided to give it.
One single piece of data doesn't mean anything

**kaseki** · 07-03-2019, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by beholder3

It will be interesting to see the next quarterly figures in summer.

Its kind of sad to see how poorly they all manage to draw in new photographers.

I bet competition will get much more fierce (and prices will get under even more pressure) in the next months and years.

Good times to come.

Originally posted by biz-engineer

At the moment, there is a high risk that some of the new mounts won't survive. The tough pill to swallow end of 2019, 2020, 2021, when sales aren't matching the total amount of R&D spent.

There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products.

RonHendriks1966 · 07-03-2019, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by kaseki

There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products.

Just ended a promotion from Sony. A A7ii was to get for 849 euro overhere last weeks. That is one good price for that model.

**monochrome** · 07-03-2019, 07:00 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by biz-engineer

No. Most phones are sold for $1 bundled with a telecom operator subscription contract. Buying a phone separate from call and data contracts isn't as cost effective for the user. When switching contract, everyone can get a new phone for free so why not do it? If a camera was paid by call subscriptions, the camera market would be huge and people would change every 2 years for getting the latest in camera gizmo seemingly free of charge.

Dude. No wireless carrier in the world subsidized phone purchases any more. They might finance them over 24 months but the user buys the phone. The carriers collectively would be instantly bankrupt if they had fronted the money for 3,000,000,000 Smartphones over the last two years (that’s 1,500,000,000 Smartphones a year - in perpetuity!).

I pay cash for mine because I want to limit my monthly charges.

normhead · 07-03-2019, 07:02 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by kaseki

There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products.

I got my Q at a good price, but they never actually came out with the promised macro for it that would have made it a complete system. You take advantage of low prices on flailing products at your peril.

mee · 07-03-2019, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by biz-engineer

The funny thing is how corporations are completely directed by careless shareholders and how inconsiderate they are for customers, and employees. Fooling customers never work, companies just screw themselves by doing so. For any business to be healthy, the condition is to deliver products/services that solve customer problems, new mirror-less systems at increased prices don't solve any customer problem, they are just designed to pump more money out of less customers, and require more promotional spending. What camera makers are doing now isn't what successful companies are doing in other sectors: providing superior value to customers.

I get your point that companies are trying to resell new systems to people with decent, matured camera systems already.

However, mirrorless systems do offer more focusing aids in the viewfinder and the exposure is more easy to gauge through the view too. Plus the wall to wall focusing points could, in some cases, be beneficial. So there could be some benefits if those aspects suit you.

normhead · 07-03-2019, 07:25 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by mee

However, mirrorless systems do offer more focusing aids in the viewfinder and the exposure is more easy to gauge through the view too. Plus the wall to wall focusing points could, in some cases, be beneficial. So there could be some benefits if those aspects suit you.

Sounds like "cameras for dummies."

What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels?

mee · 07-03-2019, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by normhead

Sounds like "cameras for dummies."

What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels?

What do you mean? Is cruise control and automatic transmissions in cars "cars for dummies" and considered as "training wheels" too?

If you don't want those extra features you can disable them on your camera.

**luftfluss** · 07-03-2019, 07:30 AM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by normhead

Sounds like "cameras for dummies."

What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels?

"training wheels"? You mean like autofocus?

normhead · 07-03-2019, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by luftfluss

"training wheels"? You mean like autofocus?

Pentax auto focus works awesome for me.

From Canada Day. Easily a 98% keeper rate on 350 images.

Sometimes "better auto-focus" is just more stuff to fidget with, while you're missing images.
Down on the Lakeshore for Canada Day. Posted to Post your Photos, k-3 images, and DA 55-300 PLM
Party on.

K-3 and DA 55-300 PLM

2019-07-01-Rocking-out-on-Canada-Day-11 by
Norm Head, on Flickr

I would have to ask, how would mirrorless AF have improved my day?
And this is a K-3, 6 year old tech. the K-1ii and K-P have improved AF algorithms.

I just don't get all this whining about AF and exposure being a problem, and an area of possible improvement.

mee · 07-03-2019, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by normhead

Pentax auto focus works awesome for me.

From Canada Day. Easily a 98% keeper rate on 350 images.

Sometimes "better auto-focus" is just more stuff to fidget with, while you're missing images.
Down on the Lakeshore for Canada Day. Posted to Post your Photos, k-3 images, and DA 55-300 PLM
Party on.

K-3 and DA 55-300 PLM

I would have to ask, how would mirrorless AF have improved my day?
And this is a K-3, 6 year old tech. the K-1ii and K-P have improved AF algorithms.

I just don't get all this whining about AF and exposure being a problem, and an area of possible improvement.

Well.. if you're happy taking shots of people in static positions on a stage or in an audience in the middle of the day then yeah no problems.

If that camera system in its current state satisfies all your requirements, then why bother looking or wasting brain cells on repeatedly pondering new systems at all? Instead just use what you have and be happy, it seems to more than meet your needs.

07-03-2019, 07:02 AM - 1 Like	#39
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	Originally posted by kaseki There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products. I got my Q at a good price, but they never actually came out with the promised macro for it that would have made it a complete system. You take advantage of low prices on flailing products at your peril. Last edited by normhead; 07-03-2019 at 10:58 AM.

07-03-2019, 07:36 AM	#44
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	Originally posted by luftfluss "training wheels"? You mean like autofocus? Pentax auto focus works awesome for me. From Canada Day. Easily a 98% keeper rate on 350 images. Sometimes "better auto-focus" is just more stuff to fidget with, while you're missing images. Down on the Lakeshore for Canada Day. Posted to Post your Photos, k-3 images, and DA 55-300 PLM Party on. K-3 and DA 55-300 PLM 2019-07-01-Rocking-out-on-Canada-Day-11 by Norm Head, on Flickr I would have to ask, how would mirrorless AF have improved my day? And this is a K-3, 6 year old tech. the K-1ii and K-P have improved AF algorithms. I just don't get all this whining about AF and exposure being a problem, and an area of possible improvement. Last edited by normhead; 07-03-2019 at 07:47 AM.

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07-03-2019, 02:22 AM	#31
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112 Original Poster	It will be interesting to see the next quarterly figures in summer. Its kind of sad to see how poorly they all manage to draw in new photographers. I bet competition will get much more fierce (and prices will get under even more pressure) in the next months and years. Good times to come.

07-03-2019, 02:32 AM	#32
biz-engineer Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2015 Photos: Gallery Posts: 12,239	Originally posted by beholder3 Good times to come. At the moment, there is a high risk that some of the new mounts won't survive. The tough pill to swallow end of 2019, 2020, 2021, when sales aren't matching the total amount of R&D spent.

07-03-2019, 02:39 AM	#33
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,663	The odd thing about it is that this is in a situation where there have been no new SLRs released for quite awhile and a number of MILCs have hit the market in the last six months -- 2 each from Canon and Nikon, 1 from Panasonic, and I think the OMD EM1x was released at the beginning of this year too. By all accounts, mirrorless sales should be far out stripping SLR sales. Instead we see a bit of a decline for both. Clearly the market is just slowing. People are satisfied with what they have and even a new MILC with an f2 zoom and a million PDAF points on the sensor isn't going to drive them to buy a new camera. It does seem as though, with regard to cameras in use, SLRs still vastly out number MILCs. I guess the question is if you are shooting with a D5300 or Canon 80D, when time comes that you need to replace your camera, do you pitch over your SLR for an MILC or just buy whatever the newest SLR camera from your brand with the right sensor size. My guess is that inertia and lenses keep many people shooting with the same mount, even if they could use an MILC with an adapter and keep most of the same functionality.

07-03-2019, 03:42 AM - 2 Likes	#34
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Fascinating discussion, guys, high quality stuff. Good stats by Beholder, excellent analysis by the rest of you blokes, makes for great reading.

07-03-2019, 06:19 AM	#35
LensBeginner Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2014 Photos: Albums Posts: 4,696	All two (and of course the third) lines are still above the polynomial trendline... whatever "smoothing" they decided to give it. One single piece of data doesn't mean anything

07-03-2019, 06:52 AM	#36
kaseki Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2017 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 1,138	Originally posted by beholder3 It will be interesting to see the next quarterly figures in summer. Its kind of sad to see how poorly they all manage to draw in new photographers. I bet competition will get much more fierce (and prices will get under even more pressure) in the next months and years. Good times to come. Originally posted by biz-engineer At the moment, there is a high risk that some of the new mounts won't survive. The tough pill to swallow end of 2019, 2020, 2021, when sales aren't matching the total amount of R&D spent. There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products.

07-03-2019, 06:57 AM	#37
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Originally posted by kaseki There may be good times to come for those wanting a price reduction on existing products, but not so good times for those whining about lack of new products. Just ended a promotion from Sony. A A7ii was to get for 849 euro overhere last weeks. That is one good price for that model.

07-03-2019, 07:00 AM - 1 Like	#38
monochrome Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Working From Home Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 26,276	Originally posted by biz-engineer No. Most phones are sold for $1 bundled with a telecom operator subscription contract. Buying a phone separate from call and data contracts isn't as cost effective for the user. When switching contract, everyone can get a new phone for free so why not do it? If a camera was paid by call subscriptions, the camera market would be huge and people would change every 2 years for getting the latest in camera gizmo seemingly free of charge. Dude. No wireless carrier in the world subsidized phone purchases any more. They might finance them over 24 months but the user buys the phone. The carriers collectively would be instantly bankrupt if they had fronted the money for 3,000,000,000 Smartphones over the last two years (that’s 1,500,000,000 Smartphones a year - in perpetuity!). I pay cash for mine because I want to limit my monthly charges.

07-03-2019, 07:19 AM	#40
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by biz-engineer The funny thing is how corporations are completely directed by careless shareholders and how inconsiderate they are for customers, and employees. Fooling customers never work, companies just screw themselves by doing so. For any business to be healthy, the condition is to deliver products/services that solve customer problems, new mirror-less systems at increased prices don't solve any customer problem, they are just designed to pump more money out of less customers, and require more promotional spending. What camera makers are doing now isn't what successful companies are doing in other sectors: providing superior value to customers. I get your point that companies are trying to resell new systems to people with decent, matured camera systems already. However, mirrorless systems do offer more focusing aids in the viewfinder and the exposure is more easy to gauge through the view too. Plus the wall to wall focusing points could, in some cases, be beneficial. So there could be some benefits if those aspects suit you.

07-03-2019, 07:25 AM - 1 Like	#41
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	Originally posted by mee However, mirrorless systems do offer more focusing aids in the viewfinder and the exposure is more easy to gauge through the view too. Plus the wall to wall focusing points could, in some cases, be beneficial. So there could be some benefits if those aspects suit you. Sounds like "cameras for dummies." What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels?

07-03-2019, 07:28 AM	#42
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by normhead Sounds like "cameras for dummies." What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels? What do you mean? Is cruise control and automatic transmissions in cars "cars for dummies" and considered as "training wheels" too? If you don't want those extra features you can disable them on your camera.

07-03-2019, 07:30 AM - 2 Likes	#43
luftfluss Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: NJ Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 11,626	Originally posted by normhead Sounds like "cameras for dummies." What happens when you're ready to take off the training wheels? "training wheels"? You mean like autofocus?

07-03-2019, 07:53 AM	#45
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by normhead Pentax auto focus works awesome for me. From Canada Day. Easily a 98% keeper rate on 350 images. Sometimes "better auto-focus" is just more stuff to fidget with, while you're missing images. Down on the Lakeshore for Canada Day. Posted to Post your Photos, k-3 images, and DA 55-300 PLM Party on. K-3 and DA 55-300 PLM I would have to ask, how would mirrorless AF have improved my day? And this is a K-3, 6 year old tech. the K-1ii and K-P have improved AF algorithms. I just don't get all this whining about AF and exposure being a problem, and an area of possible improvement. Well.. if you're happy taking shots of people in static positions on a stage or in an audience in the middle of the day then yeah no problems. If that camera system in its current state satisfies all your requirements, then why bother looking or wasting brain cells on repeatedly pondering new systems at all? Instead just use what you have and be happy, it seems to more than meet your needs.