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07-02-2019, 09:37 AM - 1 Like   #1
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mirrorless sales down -14.8% in units and -19.1% in value

The May 2019 figures are interesting:
CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association: Digital Cameras

mirrorless sales down -14.8% in units and -19.1% in value (compared to same month a year before)

DSLR sales down -3.4% in units and -10.9% in value

The 1/5 drop in value is a new development.

Maybe that is because they only get the cameras to dealers with massive factory discounts.

Interesting that mirroless hasnt really gained any ground on a customer number basis against DSLR in the last 6 months


Waiting a year or two seems to pay off for the smarter buyers.

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07-02-2019, 10:17 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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More dramatic to my eyes is the strong decreasing trend of the DSLR market.

A drop between two datapoints is marginal to me, a strong trend is more informative.
07-02-2019, 10:17 AM - 1 Like   #3
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Mirror or no mirror doesn't matter. It's a replacement market now, don't expect high volumes. The total market is small and will remain small for awhile. Panasonic to release two lines of FF mirrorless system was a plain strategic mistake, because you don't bet the house in a decreasing market. The market will either be too small for so many competitors, or the prices will be crazy high which leads to lower volumes. Some brands should exit the camera business to make it a healthier place. And if it was Ricoh Imaging it wouldn't help. To make this industry more viable, Canon or Nikon or Sony should exit, or they all have to become small like Pentax. Canon and Nikon now investing in designing more glass for their new system, I'm afraid they are all going to make losses because they are going against the market trend.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 07-02-2019 at 10:27 AM.
07-02-2019, 10:34 AM - 1 Like   #4
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Yeah, we should be looking for a larger player to exit the market or scale back. At the very least we'll be seeing the end of some product lines.

07-02-2019, 10:37 AM - 2 Likes   #5
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The market is shrinking as the products mature, and people are rightfully concerned that the economic bullying that is being trumpled on the world is going to lead to a recession. It's no wonder people have closed their wallets to discretionary spending.
07-02-2019, 10:38 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by bdery Quote
A drop between two datapoints is marginal to me, a strong trend is more informative.
Agreed...Pentax already at a small market is not rushing new models to retail as it appears they would languish and/or deeply be discounted. Pentax appears uniquely poised to maintain its market presence and produce products as needed (I.e., APS-c replacement will go a long way in retaining existing K-5/K-3 owners whose cameras are now trending toward the end of their respective cycles).


QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Panasonic to release two lines of FF mirrorless system was a plain strategic mistake,
I disagree. My other kits are all Leica, I have 2 M-mounts and 2 recent T/L Leica mounts. The Panasonic/Lumix offerings are all compatible with the Leica bodies as well as the new SIGMA cameras. The partnership of all three makes the lenses interchangeable and a person who already has Leica lenses can purchase a Lumix/Panny for a mere fraction of the cost of a new Leica. I also have a T/L M-mount adapter that will allow all Leica lenses on these new Panasonic bodies in manual mode.
I wish Pentax would be able to do that--clearly, Leica had the edge with Panasonic because they have been partners in certain technologies for years (I.e, the batteries in my new Leica CL are Panasonic/lumix, so is the LCD, etc.). I think Pentax's next move may be to offer a RICOH interchangeable camera that will accept K lenses with different/less features--possibly a point and shoot with fewer options for mainstream use. Brand compatibility is a big deal today. Sony manufactures 2/3rds of the CMOS sensors tehse days so they can continue to do so.

---------- Post added 07-02-19 at 10:59 AM ----------

Wheatfield:

The fact that DSLR's are slowly going the way of the cassette deck or the VHS tape does not mean people are holding off on their discretionary spending: I think rather the discretionary spending has been routed into new purchases (I.e, $1,000 smart phones vs. 1,000 cameras). As an aside, I never thought camera purchases were discretionary to me. I consider my picture taking to be a serious hobby just as I don't consider golf clubs discretionary. However, a non-enthusiast or occasional picture snapper would consider an advanced DSLR of Mirrorless to be discretionary; If you meant the latter than I agree with you--a casual camera user is now investing in an ever better camera phone--fact of life. Ethusiasts and pros are all that remain of this market.
07-02-2019, 11:04 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Merv-O Quote
I disagree. My other kits are all Leica, I have 2 M-mounts and 2 recent T/L Leica mounts. The Panasonic/Lumix offerings are all compatible with the Leica bodies as well as the new SIGMA cameras. The partnership of all three makes the lenses interchangeable and a person who already has Leica lenses can purchase a Lumix/Panny for a mere fraction of the cost of a new Leica.
Yes, sounds great in business theory. In practice however, Panasonic S1x have zero market share.
07-02-2019, 11:05 AM - 2 Likes   #8
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A stand-alone Camera is viewed as a discretionary purchase. A websearch/texting/photographing device that can coincidentally complete voice calls is considered a necessity.

07-02-2019, 11:16 AM - 3 Likes   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
A stand-alone Camera is viewed as a discretionary purchase. A websearch/texting/photographing device that can coincidentally complete voice calls is considered a necessity.
Not to me, it ain't
07-02-2019, 11:17 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Yes, sounds great in business theory. In practice however, Panasonic S1x have zero market share.
The Panasonic T/L mounts were just launched 2 months ago--they shouldn't be on the radar yet. Look at a year's sale and the lens purchases too...

---------- Post added 07-02-19 at 11:21 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
A stand-alone Camera is viewed as a discretionary purchase. A websearch/texting/photographing device that can coincidentally complete voice calls is considered a necessity.
Yes Mono: a $100-200 phone may be a necessity but a $1,000 portrait lens f/2.8 camera phone is discretionary no matter how you look at it.....As a wise friend once quipped when I was agonizing over a true discretionary purchase (a 2 seat sports car w/almost no utility): "If you want it, you need it"; therefore, you'll probably buy it..."

I think that's about right.
07-02-2019, 11:47 AM   #11
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Where do you get a $200 phone and why do you get a $1,000 device? A $600-ish Smart Device with a normal camera has actually become a necessity in the IoT era.
QuoteOriginally posted by Merv-O Quote
The Panasonic T/L mounts were just launched 2 months ago--they shouldn't be on the radar yet. Look at a year's sale and the lens purchases too...

---------- Post added 07-02-19 at 11:21 AM ----------


Yes Mono: a $100-200 phone may be a necessity but a $1,000 portrait lens f/2.8 camera phone is discretionary no matter how you look at it.....As a wise friend once quipped when I was agonizing over a true discretionary purchase (a 2 seat sports car w/almost no utility): "If you want it, you need it"; therefore, you'll probably buy it..."

I think that's about right.
07-02-2019, 11:48 AM   #12
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I'm actually not convinced this has to do with money primarily. It may have more to do with space and time. If your phone takes good snaps of your kids and whatever else you're putting on social media, how do you justify carrying a camera around? And then it's far more involved to post your pics from an ILC to said social media instead of hitting share on your phone. It's not hard to see why most people don't bother. That leaves hobbyists and professionals and the latter are under pressure from the same forces.

It's very easy to get used to the phone as a "good enough" convergence device for photos, video, communication, payment, the list goes on.
07-02-2019, 12:08 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Where do you get a $200 phone and why do you get a $1,000 device? A $600-ish Smart Device with a normal camera has actually become a necessity in the IoT era.
Samsung Galaxies are about $200; iPhone 7 is about $250 (both still produced)….no need to even spend $600--phone first, web second, camera/video afterthought for me...

---------- Post added 07-02-19 at 12:11 PM ----------

Mono: a $600 phone is still too much...considering my KP was only $700, I consider that the better choice....while I can't dial the KP, it takes excellent photos, decent video and can make beautiful enlargements....Also, I enjoy using a camera--for me the phone is a communication device, not an Instagram conduit
07-02-2019, 12:25 PM   #14
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Since Nov. 2018 the lines have been pretty much in-sinc, with DSLRs having a slight edge. It's less than it used to be, but, no sign we are ever going to have a completely mirrorless camera market yet.
07-02-2019, 12:30 PM - 3 Likes   #15
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I think the "death of the DSLR" if it happened would be due to companies wanting to cut product lines and migrate their users, not due to consumers just voluntarily giving them up. The big boys have been pushing mirrorless hard and their recent affordable DSLR options have been sort of pointless (have you tried to use the OVF on a recent Rebel? Why bother?)
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