[beholder3]

For the last seven months in a row there is a certain trend visible for worldwide shipments:

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[biz-engineer]

For the last seven months in a row there is a certain trend visible for worldwide shipments:

That correlates with the quality of outdoor light: best in Autumn and Spring seasons. Perhaps sales of landscape cameras would peak in September, sales of wildlife cameras would peak in March, and sales on underwater cameras would peak in May (for use in July).

[photoptimist]

The most surprising aspect is how relatively constant the DSLR-to-DSLM ratio is remaining. Given Canon and Nikon's big release of MILCs plus the Leica, Panasonic, and Sigma alliance plus ongoing new releases by Sony, Fuji and Oly, the ratio really should have flipped as pent-up demand by Canonians and Nikonians jumped on the supposed mirrorless bandwagon.

It would seem that DSLR users weren't waiting to jump ship to any of the new mirrorless entrants but continue to buy cameras with their preferred viewfinder technology.

[biz-engineer]

t would seem that DSLR users weren't waiting to jump ship to any of the new mirrorless entrants but continue to buy cameras with their preferred viewfinder technology.

Since it was possible to use a Canon or Nikon DSLR lenses on Sony A7 series via adapters, I think most people who were interested in switching to mirrorless did it with Sony. In any case, the use of DSLR lenses require an adapter. So the actually market for mirrorless Canon and mirrorless Nikon in 2019 may be smaller than planned.

[david94903]

I must admit, I'm a contributor to the November spike (Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals) and the April bump (Summer vacation coming up, need a new camera body), for the DLSR line.

[clackers]

Thanks as always for your analysis, Beholder!

[Trickortreat]

That correlates with the quality of outdoor light: best in Autumn and Spring seasons. Perhaps sales of landscape cameras would peak in September, sales of wildlife cameras would peak in March, and sales on underwater cameras would peak in May (for use in July).

Dunno... i like that winter light best… its the most subdued

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Last edited by Trickortreat; 08-02-2019 at 02:35 AM.

[beholder3]

That correlates with the quality of outdoor light: best in Autumn and Spring seasons. Perhaps sales of landscape cameras would peak in September, sales of wildlife cameras would peak in March, and sales on underwater cameras would peak in May (for use in July).

I think since these are manufacturer shipments the peak in April is the pre-summer vacation camera peak and then in October it's the pre x-mas season peak. Obviously it doesnt matter if you look at cameras with real viewfinders or tiny electronics screens.

---------- Post added 2nd Aug 2019 at 12:39 ----------

The most surprising aspect is how relatively constant the DSLR-to-DSLM ratio is remaining. Given Canon and Nikon's big release of MILCs plus the Leica, Panasonic, and Sigma alliance plus ongoing new releases by Sony, Fuji and Oly, the ratio really should have flipped as pent-up demand by Canonians and Nikonians jumped on the supposed mirrorless bandwagon.

It would seem that DSLR users weren't waiting to jump ship to any of the new mirrorless entrants but continue to buy cameras with their preferred viewfinder technology.

And the DSLM makers should be worried about this. They obviously are throwing massive money into a hole that doesnt convince customers well in relation to all the invest. Loads of smarter photographers seem unwillig to throw their own money after the makers' money. DSLM prices are falling significantly already (good for future buyers who can wait it out, bad for people who jumped too early).

[GUB]

Seeing there is 5 months data missing there is absolutely nothing here to indicate a downward trend. Just seasonal fluctuation.

[monochrome]

Perhaps we’ll settle in around 12,000,000 ILC units* a year (and see which companies have properly adjusted capital to suit). I discount the importance of measuring Shipment value as a distinguishing metric since I assume the fresh capital investment in MILC continues at a rapid pace while much of the capital behind DSLR’s is fully amortized.


* versus 2,000,000,000 Smartphams.

[clackers]

Seeing there is 5 months data missing there is absolutely nothing here to indicate a downward trend. Just seasonal fluctuation.

You can always do what Beholder's done, go to the CIPA website, and see yourself the absolute destruction of the market since 2011-2012.

[GUB]

Totally not disputing camera sales decline but a 7 month graph that includes a seasonal blip cannot demonstrate a trend.

[beholder3]

Totally not disputing camera sales decline but a 7 month graph that includes a seasonal blip cannot demonstrate a trend.

7 months in a row no gains by DSLM with super massive costs/investments into advertising and (obviously underwhelming) products not making any gains on DSLR does show something. And it is definitely not success.
Given the amount of advertising and hyping DSLM should have wiped out DSLRs already today.
All we see is stagnancy in shares while overall it goes down the drain.

[biz-engineer]

All we see is stagnancy in shares while overall it goes down the drain.

If new mirrorless systems weren't on sale, the market would be half the size of what it is now. DSLM R&D money doesn't go down the drain, it helps pay wages of camera engineers who otherwise might have lost their jobs.

[beholder3]

If new mirrorless systems weren't on sale, the market would be half the size of what it is now.

If new mirrorless systems were originally priced at the value they represent there would be no need for the discounts on fantasy prices only those early adopters lacking a brain would pay.

Currently it is just that the market slowly forces the greedy makers back into reality.