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08-03-2019, 03:47 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by GUB Quote
Totally not disputing camera sales decline but a 7 month graph that includes a seasonal blip cannot demonstrate a trend.
Year-by-year numbers look more sloped than a skiing ramp... every maker is facing a harsh deceleration (not necessarily failing to break even, however, just massively lowered profits, but we all know how the resident bean counters will react to that). Nikon has apparently terminated the D3000, D5000 and D500 lines, which makes sense: The D7000 series has the exact same sensor (so the same pictures are taken). With 4 lines, all using different platforms (chassis, processors, AF, etc.), you are damaging your own economy of scale.


Add to that the two DSLR lines (D850+D750) PLUS the Sports-pro-dual-grip-line, plus two FF lines and you have a hot inefficient mess.


Sony can survive it because they stick different housemade sensors in the same shoebox and they anyway have two lines of ILCs only IIRC (a6X00 and a7? The A9 is basically an A7 with extra processor and another dial); for the others I'm not so sure.

I reckon we will be seeing some significant streamlining of lineups.


For Canon, the 7D users will probably be nudged into lower-priced (perhaps slightly more "pro" than the RP?) FF R bodies with modest MP and fast fps; the crowd that buys a 1500€ crop body probably uses EF or even L glass anyway. One or two entry level models might be kept because of those people who still want to dabble in "better than a phone" and buy a 250D or somesuch. 80D line and the like probably out. 6D probably out as well, either get an RP or pony up for the 5D.

For Pentax... the K-S2 might be the last of its kind, the K-70 line stays as entry-level, the K-3 succesor is the new flagship APS-C for that great DA lens line-up we have. The KP is a wildcard and I have zero clue what they intend with it: it's a very different chassis design and it fills a slightly awkward spot in the lineup...

On FF the most likely possibility is one line (K-1iii or whatever they name it). For MF, Upgrade to the 645Z to tell Fuji to stuff it?

I am honestly scratching my head thinking about how the main players will deal with this situation. Logic says they will focus efforts in coming up with "midrange" (which is almost entirely, despite the price, the new entry level) lenses and bodies, but apparently Canon are throwing R&D monies *first* at 3500€ f2.0 full frame zooms. Sony came up with two very expensive, very large superteles recently. I know it's more of a statement along the lines of "We are still the best at this" but it all stinks of "fleeing forward*".



*That's a Spanish expression. I mean they are panicking and rushing to their apparent demise. Or, at least, to a worse situation. Manglement at work, maybe.

08-03-2019, 05:47 AM   #17
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Canon, Nikon and Sony have a lot of fat to burn, mostly on the retail side. A number of subsidized retail channels will have to die. They'll become like the Pentax of 10 years back. The question is more for Pentax how to deal with less market while already being on the struggle when the market was larger. Hopefully, less money for cameras will weed out those advertising channels about cameras.
08-03-2019, 08:20 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Canon, Nikon and Sony have a lot of fat to burn, mostly on the retail side. A number of subsidized retail channels will have to die. They'll become like the Pentax of 10 years back. The question is more for Pentax how to deal with less market while already being on the struggle when the market was larger. Hopefully, less money for cameras will weed out those advertising channels about cameras.
Floorplanning has already killed the subsidized retail channel. Is any market outside Japan large enough to support a CaNiSony Brand Showroom such as Leica has?

Eight Leica stores in the US
08-03-2019, 08:43 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
For the last seven months in a row there is a certain trend visible for worldwide shipments:
Sales/shipments of everything are down. All consumer goods are taking it on the chin right now. I just read recently that the big six automakers have or are laying off tens of thousands of workers.
People are closing their wallets and making what they have last.

08-04-2019, 05:09 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Sales/shipments of everything are down. All consumer goods are taking it on the chin right now. I just read recently that the big six automakers have or are laying off tens of thousands of workers.
People are closing their wallets and making what they have last.
Thats because of the greed... everything is moving upmarket. I really dont think that entire worlds economy can be based on luxury items.

---------- Post added 08-04-19 at 02:10 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
great DA lens line-up we have
optically, yes, they are great, but most need a mechanical refresh.
08-04-2019, 06:55 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Sales/shipments of everything are down. All consumer goods are taking it on the chin right now. I just read recently that the big six automakers have or are laying off tens of thousands of workers.
People are closing their wallets and making what they have last.
I don’t know where you read that, but Consumer Confidence is quite strong. Purchases of consumer goods is keeping the economy going a the moment. We just passed an all-time record number of Americans working in full-time jobs, and they’re spending the money.

Auto production is stable at 252,000 units a month (admittedly that is down from the post-crisis recovery level. Cars last ten years now and they’re so expensive people have to keep them) . Companies are having trouble filling job openings - there aren’t enough people seeking work to meet demand for workers.

Consumer Confidence. US Employment

Last edited by monochrome; 08-04-2019 at 07:12 AM.
08-04-2019, 08:49 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Trickortreat Quote
Thats because of the greed... everything is moving upmarket. I really dont think that entire worlds economy can be based on luxury items.
I’m not sure you are correct. Sales are down in all sorts of consumer goods sectors. In fact I expect they are down right across the board. We deal in one particular type of consumer product on this forum, and certainly cameras don’t fall into the necessity category, but on the whole, I don’t really think they are a luxury product, though I can see how someone whose income level will never support the purchase could see it that way.
You can call consumer goods in general luxury goods if you want, but the downturn in sales is very much the canary in the coal mine.
Plummeting sales in general will have a very serious ripple effect, from management levels of corporations right down to burger flippers. This is how recessions work, and sadly, it is always the least able to weather the storm who will face the brunt of it.

---------- Post added Aug 4th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I don’t know where you read that, but Consumer Confidence is quite strong. Purchases of consumer goods is keeping the economy going a the moment. We just passed an all-time record number of Americans working in full-time jobs, and they’re spending the money.

Auto production is stable at 252,000 units a month (admittedly that is down from the post-crisis recovery level. Cars last ten years now and they’re so expensive people have to keep them) . Companies are having trouble filling job openings - there aren’t enough people seeking work to meet demand for workers.

Consumer Confidence. US Employment
This will possibly cross the line I am not supposed to cross, and it is not meant to, it is honestly part of the discussion. America is not the world. Your economy is being propped up through massive borrowing and spending. The deficit has grown something like 10% over the past 2 years, and is projected to keep growing at record levels, exceeding anything that has preceded it.
Your economy is in an artificial bubble.
On February 11, 2019, the U.S. debt exceeded $22 trillion. That puts the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio at 108 percent.
Those hens will comes home to roost at some point.


Last edited by Wheatfield; 08-04-2019 at 09:04 AM.
08-04-2019, 09:05 AM - 1 Like   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
All consumer goods are taking it on the chin right now.
QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Consumer Confidence is quite strong. Purchases of consumer goods is keeping the economy going a the moment. We just passed an all-time record number of Americans working in full-time jobs, and they’re spending the money.
You are both mostly right. The U.S. is out-performing the rest of the global economy, but global demand for automobiles is down and peak demand for electronic consumer products produced in Asia has passed. Consumer confidence (which is the results of a survey question, not neccesarily the same as consumer spending) is very tightly connected to employment, which is ironically a very local thing, even in a globalized world. None of which is directly correlated to the long term outlook for camera manufacturers. In due course, the fate of the global camera industry will be determined by middle class men over 50, who no longer have to pay their kids' bills.

---------- Post added 08-04-19 at 10:21 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
On February 11, 2019, the U.S. debt exceeded $22 trillion. That puts the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio at 108 percent.Those hens will comes home to roost at some point.
These are uncharted waters, when the world's largest economy is also the most leveraged economy, although Japan, with a debt to GDP ratio of around 250% is far more extreme in terms of only government debt. Personally, growing up on a farm leads me to believe that until the acopalypse, the country with the most abundant and secure food supply will win out. China's food supply is gaining in abundance, but it is a security nightmare (their centralized, corrupt and chaotic management is the true culprit). It takes a lot of infrastructure to support the American food chain, but its efficiency, safety and sheer abundance is unmatched anywhere, any time.
08-04-2019, 11:06 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Your economy is in an artificial bubble.
On February 11, 2019, the U.S. debt exceeded $22 trillion. That puts the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio at 108 percent.
Those hens will comes home to roost at some point.
O wow that is big. We are currently at 52,4 %.

Someone has to pay for that in the future.
08-04-2019, 11:40 AM - 1 Like   #25
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I get regular emails (my choice) from Canon Canada. They're largely sales promotions for their products and also information pieces on new equipment, etc.

I like the messages, they keep me up on new Canon equipment and I do like anything about photography...and the equipment used.... in this interest of mine.

I also have a couple of Canon cameras...an old film F1 in very good condition (with 50mm F 1.8 lens) and a Canon G 12 with a Canon 430 EX ll flash. Very good stuff, even though they don't have the name 'Pentax' anywhere.

Last week I got a message from Canon. The main focus was devoted to encouraging and / or converting their newsletter subscribers, to go full frame, Canon full frame. There were some financial incentives , along with showing of their complete line of FF camera, including the new mirror less ones.

The unusual aspect of this Canon marketing missive was their detailed (charts, etc.) sales and lists of photography awards that they provided. They mentioned all other competitive FF cameras from all different manufacturers...with one glaring (to me anyways)...exception....Pentax. Pentax was not on the sales dept., pie charts, not listed at all....nothing...or as the Russians say...nada.

My interpretation of this Canon inaction when it came to the Pentax brand ?

One of two things...Canon is running scared from Pentax...knowing they can't hope to compete with either the K1 or the 645Z

Or...the alternative... they have consigned Pentax as a competitor, as a camera manufacturer, to the dustbin of history.

Being a loyal Pentaxian....but a mere dabbler in Canon equipment, I tend to think they're running scared.

Les
08-04-2019, 11:47 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
We are currently at 52,4 %.Someone has to pay for that in the future.
Yes, the Chinese would have to pay the bill because they are the creditors. We borrow them money to import the products they make. It's locked up.

---------- Post added 04-08-19 at 21:10 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
Or...the alternative... they have consigned Pentax as a competitor, as a camera manufacturer, to the dustbin of history.
When Pentax customers ask Canon for Takumar to RF mount adapters and if the next RF lenses will have an mechanical aperture level and an aperture ring, Canon executives run away. Clearly, the business model of Canon is to sell more lenses, not to allow customers to use old glass without buying anything.

Pentax managed to keep K mount compatibility for decades, and now still do it by staying DSLR, something suicidal from a business standpoint. The whole point of Canon and Nikon going mirrorless is to renew sales of cameras and sales of a lot of new lenses (make DSLR bodies and lenses obsolete, and sell rafts of new MILC bodies and MILC lenses).

Last edited by biz-engineer; 08-04-2019 at 12:14 PM.
08-04-2019, 01:02 PM - 1 Like   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Yes, the Chinese would have to pay the bill because they are the creditors. We borrow them money to import the products they make. It's locked up.

---------- Post added 04-08-19 at 21:10 ----------


When Pentax customers ask Canon for Takumar to RF mount adapters and if the next RF lenses will have an mechanical aperture level and an aperture ring, Canon executives run away. Clearly, the business model of Canon is to sell more lenses, not to allow customers to use old glass without buying anything.

Pentax managed to keep K mount compatibility for decades, and now still do it by staying DSLR, something suicidal from a business standpoint. The whole point of Canon and Nikon going mirrorless is to renew sales of cameras and sales of a lot of new lenses (make DSLR bodies and lenses obsolete, and sell rafts of new MILC bodies and MILC lenses).
I agree. Kind of like back in the '50's\ '60's , when American car manufacturers would bring out...yearly...cars with completely different body styles...the new, the bold, the different...to convince buyers in the USA and Canada to buy new cars. It worked well and as car enthusiast boy, I would peddle my bicycle down to car dealer row in my burg, each September to see the latest new, improved iteration over the previous year's model.

When I finally did come of age and had sufficient cash flow to join the droves...what did I do ? I bought a ' 61 VW Beetle in 1967, which was pridefully yearly unchanged in outward appearance , with VW boasting they only made small, incremental inside changes...evolution as opposed to revolution when it came to body style.

Maybe that's why I've stuck with Pentax...I like constancy of design with only invisible, incremental evolution.

Les
08-04-2019, 01:07 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
I’m not sure you are correct. Sales are down in all sorts of consumer goods sectors. In fact I expect they are down right across the board. We deal in one particular type of consumer product on this forum, and certainly cameras don’t fall into the necessity category, but on the whole, I don’t really think they are a luxury product, though I can see how someone whose income level will never support the purchase could see it that way.
I thought we were talking about general stuff, not only cameras (cars and so on....)

---------- Post added 08-04-19 at 10:10 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Plummeting sales in general will have a very serious ripple effect, from management levels of corporations right down to burger flippers. This is how recessions work, and sadly, it is always the least able to weather the storm who will face the brunt of it.
Yeh, i know that, but a lot of manufacturers lately started pushing their product prices to higher levels. Consumers mostly think that the higher prices dont reflect the increase of product quality and thats why they closed their wallets...
08-04-2019, 01:16 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by Trickortreat Quote
I thought we were talking about general stuff, not only cameras (cars and so on....)

---------- Post added 08-04-19 at 10:10 PM ----------



Yeh, i know that, but a lot of manufacturers lately started pushing their product prices to higher levels. Consumers mostly think that the higher prices dont reflect the increase of product quality and thats why they closed their wallets...
Yes well, guess who gets to pay for the tariffs? It's always the end user.
08-04-2019, 01:24 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
Maybe that's why I've stuck with Pentax...I like constancy of design with only invisible, incremental evolution.
Well, I think innovation is more of a perceived innovation developed via promotional efforts of camera companies, with Pentax being number one of the lack of advertising. I've read through the user manual of the Nikon Z7, and although the Z7 user manual is 272 pages long (Pentax K1 manual is 140 pages long), the Pentax K1 has a features that the Z7 doesn't have, things you can do with a K1 in camera (priced 1249 Euros now), that you can't do with a Z7 (priced more than 3000 Euros). For example, with the K1 you can stack a large number of RAW files into one file, on the Z7 you can only stack 10 files. On the K1 you can select 3 modes of stacking, on the Z7 there is no choice. Also, the spec sheet at DPR web page say that the Z7 does 8 frames per seconds... but 14bits lossless it is 5.5 FPS... no much faster than a Pentax K1. People get excited about other brands, but the reality isn't as rosy as advertised... I thought the Z7 would blow me away, I had to read the manual to be not impressed.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 08-04-2019 at 01:30 PM.
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