Mirrorless vs DSLR falling behind some more (CIPA July 2019)

beholder3 · 09-03-2019, 11:01 PM - **2 Likes**

And down it goes again for the overpriced mirrorless segment.

All the aggressive DSLM advertising and hyping doesn't convince photographers around the world it seems.

Mirrorless sales dropped some more, while DSLR sales remained stable in July.

Attached Images

RonHendriks1966 · 09-03-2019, 11:54 PM - **1 Like**

Well if you think that 31,2 % less sales of dslr in july compared to last years july is stable.......well then things look bright in you life.

Trickortreat · 09-04-2019, 12:08 AM - **1 Like**

Comparing on a monthly basis really doesnt show anything. you need a much bigger sample than that.
in the future the DSLR market will probably take a heavy drop to bare minimum as major players seem to be cutting a lot of their DSLR lines in favor of ML.

cport · 09-04-2019, 01:24 AM

... which might be really good for Pentax

Btw, Ricoh does not need a new lens mount. Announcing a Pentax KP-like body in two variants (OVF, EVF) would show what are "our" preferences.

Trickortreat · 09-04-2019, 02:04 AM - **1 Like**

Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market.

**Rondec** · 09-04-2019, 02:30 AM - **3 Likes**

Originally posted by Trickortreat

Comparing on a monthly basis really doesnt show anything. you need a much bigger sample than that.
in the future the DSLR market will probably take a heavy drop to bare minimum as major players seem to be cutting a lot of their DSLR lines in favor of ML.

The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras.

People who are interested in MILCs will purchase them when they need a replacement camera -- same as folks who buy SLRs at this point, but it doesn't look to me as though they are attracting new customers or stealing a bunch of SLR photographers.

danielblues · 09-04-2019, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by Trickortreat

Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market.

Maybe a K1000d 24Mpx 750$ EVF only FF could shake that stillborn market. I would buy one.

beholder3 · 09-04-2019, 02:48 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Rondec

The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras.

Very poor cost benefit ratio for mirrorless is causing the extended stagnancy.

I am sure the next 2 year's black friday sales on mirrorless will (have to) have massive discounts and the used market for latest models will grow with offers much below current street prices.

cport · 09-04-2019, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by Trickortreat

Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market.

They need not be stillborns. KP is of comparable size with advanced MILCs (while K-01 was an unpleasant brick), limited lenses are still pretty small and fancy. But it is true that the hardware of KP with EVF would need to be completely different.

**Rondec** · 09-04-2019, 03:09 AM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by danielblues

Maybe a K1000d 24Mpx 750$ EVF only FF could shake that stillborn market. I would buy one.

I don't know why people think that a manual everything camera, even if it was a little cheaper would shake anything up. So, you can currently get a 24 megapixel A7 on B and H for 798 dollars. It isn't manual everything, although it doesn't have a great EVF, has slow-ish auto focus, and only HD video. But clearly it hasn't shaken anything up. A few people buy it, but most people gravitate to slightly newer models with more functionality, even though they are a little more expensive.

The thing is that most of the stuff that Pentaxians want to leave off to "save money" seem to be software that has already been developed. Assuming your sensor is capable of video (all the CMOS sensors out right now are), it saves nothing to disable it -- particularly since your processing engine will take care of it. The same with jpeg settings and filters. I don't use them, but the cost to have them on the camera is minimal.

My guess is that Pentax's next full frame camera will be more along the lines of a D850 but cheaper and with slower frame rate, once again shooting for the 1800-1900 dollar range as a release price.

kevinWE · 09-04-2019, 03:14 AM - **3 Likes**

Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-)

**BigMackCam** · 09-04-2019, 03:30 AM - **4 Likes**

Originally posted by kevinWE

Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-)

I don't think the OP is trying to "take down" mirrorless cameras, but merely show that the great switch from DSLR to mirrorless, and the impending demise of the former, doesn't seem to happening with quite the vigour some folks would have us believe. As a brand focused presently (and for most of its digital past) on DSLRs, that's what most folks in these "PentaxForums" shoot and appreciate.

There are a few here who like mirrorless and have either switched to them or - like me - shoot them in addition to their Pentax or other brand DSLRs. But we also frequently hear from members who'd like Pentax to go down the mirrorless route and are convinced this is what the brand needs to offer in order to stay relevant. For them, I think it's useful to see that mirrorless sales aren't leapfrogging DSLRs, and that DSLRs (and Pentax' offerings in this space) remain highly relevant... at least, to those of us already shooting Pentax.

**Rondec** · 09-04-2019, 03:40 AM - **3 Likes**

Originally posted by kevinWE

Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-)

A couple of things. (1) We have a very strong membership on the Forum who are quick to state that the answer to all of Pentax's problems would be to release a mirrorless camera. Clearly this is not the case. Based on the graphs, we can see that the Z mount and RP mount cameras have not increased overall sales. Nor has Panasonic's S-1. Pentax releasing a mirrorless camera with a new mount (it would make absolutely no sense to keep the k mount), even with a fully functional adapter would only make their R and D situation worse. (2) I think the biggest take home message from all of these threads is that these are really dark days for camera brands. It is entirely possible to maintain market share and have overall sales drop. Mirrorless cameras take a lot of R and D, at least initially and as the specs on them increase, it takes a lot of money to get a camera to market that can do 6K video and 20 fps with decent continuous auto focus. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some brands drop by the way side or downsize their camera operations considerably. Olympus seems to be the most likely one, but certainly Nikon is going to have to do some shuffling too as their Z mount sales have not been as robust as they hoped.

I shoot Pentax and I don't really like EVFs (they give me headaches and eye strain). At the same time, I do want to see the brand continue and if that means going to EVFs, I guess so be it, but based on beholder3's market threads, it doesn't seem as though that is an answer to Pentax's woes.

danielblues · 09-04-2019, 03:58 AM - **2 Likes**

First I have to congratulate you on the best quote so far.

"I have to say that Pentaxians relationship with Pentax reminds me of a Grandfather driving his grandchildren on vacation. They are in the back seat yelling periodically, "Are we there yet? Are we there yet?" While he silently drives at 35 miles per hour towards a place that they are really going to like. The combination of the Grandfather's silence and his slow driving slowly drives his grandchildren crazy."

I had a K1000 for some weeks and loved it, but to be more precise what I would like to have is a *ist (film like) to use the DA40 and 70 on it. That will be a very small market I agree, but I think people who love the photography process as much as the end result (high Mpx extreme sharp photo) is a bit bigger. That A7 as atrocious ergonomics, some thing that kills process enjoyment and something Pentax usually nails. You could drop the evf and review your pics on the phone. A simple camera.

Trickortreat · 09-04-2019, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by Rondec

I don't know why people think that a manual everything camera, even if it was a little cheaper would shake anything up

I'd buy a manual camera. Just not one with an EVF, that defies the whole purpose of it :P

---------- Post added 09-04-19 at 01:18 PM ----------

Originally posted by Rondec

The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras.

People who are interested in MILCs will purchase them when they need a replacement camera -- same as folks who buy SLRs at this point, but it doesn't look to me as though they are attracting new customers or stealing a bunch of SLR photographers.

Yes, that was the what i meant. Canon and Nikon wont drop those lines of DSLR just over night. But when they do those will be replaced by mirrorless and people buying new cameras or replacing old wont have anything else to choose than mirrorless so the gap will just get bigger as time goes by.

09-03-2019, 11:01 PM - 2 Likes	#1
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112	Mirrorless vs DSLR falling behind some more (CIPA July 2019) And down it goes again for the overpriced mirrorless segment. All the aggressive DSLM advertising and hyping doesn't convince photographers around the world it seems. Mirrorless sales dropped some more, while DSLR sales remained stable in July. Attached Images

09-04-2019, 01:24 AM	#4
cport Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 428	... ... which might be really good for Pentax Btw, Ricoh does not need a new lens mount. Announcing a Pentax KP-like body in two variants (OVF, EVF) would show what are "our" preferences.

09-04-2019, 03:58 AM - 2 Likes	#14
danielblues Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Cascais, Portugal Posts: 173	First I have to congratulate you on the best quote so far. "I have to say that Pentaxians relationship with Pentax reminds me of a Grandfather driving his grandchildren on vacation. They are in the back seat yelling periodically, "Are we there yet? Are we there yet?" While he silently drives at 35 miles per hour towards a place that they are really going to like. The combination of the Grandfather's silence and his slow driving slowly drives his grandchildren crazy." I had a K1000 for some weeks and loved it, but to be more precise what I would like to have is a ist (film like) to use the DA40 and 70 on it. That will be a very small market I agree, but I think people who love the photography process as much as the end result (high Mpx extreme sharp photo) is a bit bigger. That A7 as atrocious ergonomics, some thing that kills process enjoyment and something Pentax usually nails. You could drop the evf and review your pics on the phone. A simple camera. Last edited by danielblues; 09-04-2019 at 07:49 AM.*

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09-03-2019, 11:54 PM - 1 Like	#2
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Well if you think that 31,2 % less sales of dslr in july compared to last years july is stable.......well then things look bright in you life.

09-04-2019, 12:08 AM - 1 Like	#3
Trickortreat Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 561	Comparing on a monthly basis really doesnt show anything. you need a much bigger sample than that. in the future the DSLR market will probably take a heavy drop to bare minimum as major players seem to be cutting a lot of their DSLR lines in favor of ML.

09-04-2019, 02:04 AM - 1 Like	#5
Trickortreat Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 561	Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market.

09-04-2019, 02:30 AM - 3 Likes	#6
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by Trickortreat Comparing on a monthly basis really doesnt show anything. you need a much bigger sample than that. in the future the DSLR market will probably take a heavy drop to bare minimum as major players seem to be cutting a lot of their DSLR lines in favor of ML. The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras. People who are interested in MILCs will purchase them when they need a replacement camera -- same as folks who buy SLRs at this point, but it doesn't look to me as though they are attracting new customers or stealing a bunch of SLR photographers.

09-04-2019, 02:32 AM	#7
danielblues Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Cascais, Portugal Posts: 173	Originally posted by Trickortreat Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market. Maybe a K1000d 24Mpx 750$ EVF only FF could shake that stillborn market. I would buy one.

09-04-2019, 02:48 AM - 1 Like	#8
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112 Original Poster	Originally posted by Rondec The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras. Very poor cost benefit ratio for mirrorless is causing the extended stagnancy. I am sure the next 2 year's black friday sales on mirrorless will (have to) have massive discounts and the used market for latest models will grow with offers much below current street prices.

09-04-2019, 03:05 AM	#9
cport Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 428	Originally posted by Trickortreat Mirrorless models with DSLR mount are stillborns. You have both Pentax and Sigma as examples of that. Besides. Mirrorless market is oversaturated. There is 0 sane financial reason for Pentax to enter that market. They need not be stillborns. KP is of comparable size with advanced MILCs (while K-01 was an unpleasant brick), limited lenses are still pretty small and fancy. But it is true that the hardware of KP with EVF would need to be completely different.

09-04-2019, 03:09 AM - 2 Likes	#10
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by danielblues Maybe a K1000d 24Mpx 750$ EVF only FF could shake that stillborn market. I would buy one. I don't know why people think that a manual everything camera, even if it was a little cheaper would shake anything up. So, you can currently get a 24 megapixel A7 on B and H for 798 dollars. It isn't manual everything, although it doesn't have a great EVF, has slow-ish auto focus, and only HD video. But clearly it hasn't shaken anything up. A few people buy it, but most people gravitate to slightly newer models with more functionality, even though they are a little more expensive. The thing is that most of the stuff that Pentaxians want to leave off to "save money" seem to be software that has already been developed. Assuming your sensor is capable of video (all the CMOS sensors out right now are), it saves nothing to disable it -- particularly since your processing engine will take care of it. The same with jpeg settings and filters. I don't use them, but the cost to have them on the camera is minimal. My guess is that Pentax's next full frame camera will be more along the lines of a D850 but cheaper and with slower frame rate, once again shooting for the 1800-1900 dollar range as a release price.

09-04-2019, 03:14 AM - 3 Likes	#11
kevinWE Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Illinois, USA Posts: 497	Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-)

09-04-2019, 03:30 AM - 4 Likes	#12
BigMackCam Digitiser of Film Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: North East of England Posts: 20,670	Originally posted by kevinWE Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-) I don't think the OP is trying to "take down" mirrorless cameras, but merely show that the great switch from DSLR to mirrorless, and the impending demise of the former, doesn't seem to happening with quite the vigour some folks would have us believe. As a brand focused presently (and for most of its digital past) on DSLRs, that's what most folks in these "PentaxForums" shoot and appreciate. There are a few here who like mirrorless and have either switched to them or - like me - shoot them in addition to their Pentax or other brand DSLRs. But we also frequently hear from members who'd like Pentax to go down the mirrorless route and are convinced this is what the brand needs to offer in order to stay relevant. For them, I think it's useful to see that mirrorless sales aren't leapfrogging DSLRs, and that DSLRs (and Pentax' offerings in this space) remain highly relevant... at least, to those of us already shooting Pentax.

09-04-2019, 03:40 AM - 3 Likes	#13
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by kevinWE Why bother trying to take down mirrorless cameras in meaningless threads? Deal with the fact that they are here to stay and are not going anywhere. Once you accept that, the weight will be lifted and you will feel free. :-) A couple of things. (1) We have a very strong membership on the Forum who are quick to state that the answer to all of Pentax's problems would be to release a mirrorless camera. Clearly this is not the case. Based on the graphs, we can see that the Z mount and RP mount cameras have not increased overall sales. Nor has Panasonic's S-1. Pentax releasing a mirrorless camera with a new mount (it would make absolutely no sense to keep the k mount), even with a fully functional adapter would only make their R and D situation worse. (2) I think the biggest take home message from all of these threads is that these are really dark days for camera brands. It is entirely possible to maintain market share and have overall sales drop. Mirrorless cameras take a lot of R and D, at least initially and as the specs on them increase, it takes a lot of money to get a camera to market that can do 6K video and 20 fps with decent continuous auto focus. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some brands drop by the way side or downsize their camera operations considerably. Olympus seems to be the most likely one, but certainly Nikon is going to have to do some shuffling too as their Z mount sales have not been as robust as they hoped. I shoot Pentax and I don't really like EVFs (they give me headaches and eye strain). At the same time, I do want to see the brand continue and if that means going to EVFs, I guess so be it, but based on beholder3's market threads, it doesn't seem as though that is an answer to Pentax's woes.

09-04-2019, 04:16 AM	#15
Trickortreat Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 561	Originally posted by Rondec I don't know why people think that a manual everything camera, even if it was a little cheaper would shake anything up I'd buy a manual camera. Just not one with an EVF, that defies the whole purpose of it :P ---------- Post added 09-04-19 at 01:18 PM ---------- Originally posted by Rondec The odd thing is that we've had a huge number of MILCs come out since the last serious SLR was released. All of these have gotten lots of advertising and I can't see that they have changed either the ratio of MILC to SLR sold or improved the market by selling more cameras. People who are interested in MILCs will purchase them when they need a replacement camera -- same as folks who buy SLRs at this point, but it doesn't look to me as though they are attracting new customers or stealing a bunch of SLR photographers. Yes, that was the what i meant. Canon and Nikon wont drop those lines of DSLR just over night. But when they do those will be replaced by mirrorless and people buying new cameras or replacing old wont have anything else to choose than mirrorless so the gap will just get bigger as time goes by.