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09-05-2019, 12:08 AM   #1
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Camera models today: lots still on the market

In many discussions the topic of new models comes up and recently we have people discussing manufacturers dropping model lines as well.

Here is some data on which ILC models are on sale brand new today in Germany:

Makers:
Canon (35) Fujifilm (19) Leica (18) Nikon (21) Olympus (24) Panasonic (19) Pentax (10) Sigma (1) Sony (22) Z Cam (2)

Type:
Rangefinder (12) Mirrorless (DSLM) (108) DSLR (DSLR) (51)
So there is twice as many DSLM models out there, but still only selling less than the DSLRs.

Sensor format:
APSC (79) FF (50) mFT (42)

Source:

https://www.heise.de/preisvergleich/?cat=dcamsp&xf=169_APS-C%7E169_Four-Thirds%7E169_Kleinbild%7E845_nur+Geh%E4use

Another data point was part of an German article which said in Germany only 14% of camera sales were FF- that is 1 FF for every 6 APSC + mFT.
This would suggest FF cameras are only commercially better for the makers if they make >600% of the profit contribution compared to a APSC/mFT camera. Now talk about ripping customers off.

This also shows that lots of old models are still out there competing with newer ones on price.

09-05-2019, 12:36 AM   #2
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To many models.......

- mFT has way to many models. 42 models for 1/3th of the mirrorless market. That averaging at 31.750 units per model per year.
- mirrorless comes to 37.000 units per model.
- dslr comes to 108.000 units per model.
- Pentax has way to many models. They average out on just a few thousands sales per model. (I think Leica is even lower)

---------- Post added 05-09-19 at 09:40 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Another data point was part of an German article which said in Germany only 14% of camera sales were FF- that is 1 FF for every 6 APSC + mFT.
This would suggest FF cameras are only commercially better for the makers if they make >600% of the profit contribution compared to a APSC/mFT camera. Now talk about ripping customers off.
I made a calculation some time ago on the fullframe marketshare and came to the same conclusion. It has to be less then 20% and ending somewhere in the middle of between 10-20 %. Based on the A7iii being the best selling model in that market. The post was deleted overhere, because to speculatvie and that was not allowed.
09-05-2019, 12:41 AM - 2 Likes   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax has way to many models.
Three is way too many models? K-70, KP and K-1II? It has the leanest model range of any mainstream ILC brand, so far as I'm aware...
09-05-2019, 12:44 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Three is way too many models? K-70, KP and K-1II?
Well yes I think so, but the article is talking about 12 models.......

I don't think there is much market for K-70 overhere, unless they take the price down to 499 euro including a kitlens (wich is now 799 overhere). You can have a Canon dslr with kitlens for 339 euro!

09-05-2019, 12:49 AM - 4 Likes   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Well yes I think so, but the article is talking about 12 models.......

I don't think there is much market for K-70 overhere, unless they take the price down to 499 euro including a kitlens (wich is now 799 overhere).
As I say, there are just three current Pentax ILC models... K-70, KP and K-1II. How is that "way too many"?

All three have sold well in the UK (especially the APS-C models). The K-70 sells well here... more so, admittedly, when the seasonal price drops happen, but that's true of the KP also. And the price drops are fairly frequent in the UK.

I really can't see how Ricoh can reduce the DSLR line much further, Ron. If they drop the K-70, they have no entry level model (although the K-70 is rather more than an entry level camera). Drop the KP, or the next APS-C flagship, and they disenfranchise many dedicated Pentax APS-C shooters, of whom we both know are many in number.

EDIT: Of course, I forgot about the 645Z... So that's four models. Entry and upper level APS-C, one FF and one medium format... Hardly excessive

Last edited by BigMackCam; 09-05-2019 at 12:59 AM.
09-05-2019, 12:58 AM - 1 Like   #6
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I'm confused ... don't disagree that there may well be too many models chasing too small a market but let's look at the basic facts presented and try to understand why they think Pentax has 10 current models.

We only see 3 but what about 645 and Q, small to non-existent volumes but still available(?) and maybe the KP counts as two models - black and silver and maybe K1 counts as two with original models still available.
But even that only makes 7 .... so what are these figures based on? do they include old stock eg KS1 and KS2 still being sold new.

As with all statistics you need to know the basis on which they are calculated. These figures are fine as far as they go but the extent to which they represent the market is doubtful.
09-05-2019, 01:01 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
As I say, there are just three current Pentax ILC models... K-70, KP and K-1II. How is that "way too many"?
The market for dslr is shrinking in Japan very fast over the past years. So now you can expect that 2019 will end with total sales of dslr units in Japan to be like 310.000 camera's. If Pentax would have 5 % marketshare then they sell 15.500 units devided over three models. I think that looking at your customers and who you can serve and make a profit is very important. Going down to 1 fullframe model and 1 aps-c model would be an option. Ofcourse running the K-70 for a few more years is not a problem, since you just make a batch now and then. Remember that there where times that Pentax sold 250.000 units dslr in a year.....
09-05-2019, 01:13 AM - 3 Likes   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
The market for dslr is shrinking in Japan very fast over the past years. So now you can expect that 2019 will end with total sales of dslr units in Japan to be like 310.000 camera's. If Pentax would have 5 % marketshare then they sell 15.500 units devided over three models. I think that looking at your customers and who you can serve and make a profit is very important. Going down to 1 fullframe model and 1 aps-c model would be an option. Ofcourse running the K-70 for a few more years is not a problem, since you just make a batch now and then. Remember that there where times that Pentax sold 250.000 units dslr in a year.....
Sure. My issue isn't with the possibility of reducing the model line further (although I hope that doesn't happen)... it's specifically with your comment that "Pentax has way too many models". I keep harping on about that because it's something of an exaggeration, and a negative one

09-05-2019, 01:18 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Sure. My issue isn't with the possibility of reducing the model line further (although I hope that doesn't happen)... it's specifically with your comment that "Pentax has way too many models". I keep harping on about that because it's something of an exaggeration, and a negative one
They 50 % more models then I think is healthy........that is way too many.

On the model count. I think they count KP in black and Silver, maybe even the two j-models, k-70, K-1 and K-1ii, 645z and then maybe some old stock. Well that is a way to count models.
09-05-2019, 01:44 AM - 3 Likes   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
They 50 % more models then I think is healthy........that is way too many.

On the model count. I think they count KP in black and Silver, maybe even the two j-models, k-70, K-1 and K-1ii, 645z and then maybe some old stock. Well that is a way to count models.
As of today, the following Nikon cameras are available new from stock here in the UK:

D5
D500
D610
D750
D810
D850
D3400
D3500
D5300
D5600
D7200
D7500
Df
Z6
Z7

That's 15 models. Of those, I believe six or more are currently being manufactured.

As for Canon:

EOS 2000D
EOS 4000D
EOS 200D
EOS 250D
EOS 700D
EOS 800D
EOS 77D
EOS 80D
EOS 90D
EOS 5D MkIV
EOS 5DS
EOS 5DS R
EOS 6D MkII
EOS 7D MkII
EOS 1D X MkII
EOS R
EOS RP
EOS M3
EOS M5
EOS M6
EOS M6 MkII
EOS M10
EOS M50
EOS M100

That's 24 models. I'm not sure how many of those are current, but I'd say it's more even than Nikon.

My point is, if any brand has too many models in its line-up, Pentax is perhaps the least guilty in this respect.
09-05-2019, 01:44 AM - 1 Like   #11
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Camera designs are way too much hardware driven. Such a waste of R&D. There should be less camera models from a hardware standpoint (more uniform hardware, well thought ergo, UI, build quality, and processing), but more software differentiation with licenses on breath (features and software locked performance) and depth (max shutter count software locked), so that the pricing can be flexible and flexible over time. The way camera makers make cameras is changing slowly (Sony showing the way with designing 1 body and reuse the same body for three models), but it is still outdated compared to other products. Pentax (and others) could have one model per sensor format, and three software licenses at three price points depending on the features and performance customers want and how much they are willing to pay.
09-05-2019, 01:58 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Camera designs are way too much hardware driven. Such a waste of R&D. There should be less camera models from a hardware standpoint
That was exactly what I was thinking.

Pentax should make new models for next year (if possible). Using updated parts inside and new electronic lay-out and loose as many wires inside the body as possible. Then make them as much the same as possible with as many the same parts possible. So unique to the camera's would be the housing, the sensor module with Shake Reduction, the shutter and mirrorbox. And use all parts on the models you make the same. In that way you can't make a cheap model anymore. Because you will use highend parts and share them across the different cameralines (fullframe, aps-c and 645). In that way your production cost go down due to using less different parts in your factory. That is a good way to make production lean and mean. A way to make money.
09-05-2019, 02:11 AM - 1 Like   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
and three software licenses at three price points depending on the features and performance customers want and how much they are willing to pay.
Please no, so you would pay for hardware you didn't use? Sorry, linux guy here, they could open-source the firmware or at least a public development api. I would like, for example, to be able to delete photos when review them on a phone/tablet.
Best,
09-05-2019, 02:42 AM - 1 Like   #14
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I don't know about the numbers in the initial post. Pentax doesn't have 10 models of ILC currently in manufacture. I imagine they have 3 -- 645z, K-1 II, and KP. Maybe the K70 too, but that's at most 4. The issue is old stock that is still floating around unsold. If you go on B and H, there are only those four for sale new.

The problem for camera brands is that they really did over produce camera bodies in the past and now have unsold product just sitting around. Unless the stores choose to discount it aggressively, my bet is it will continue to be unsold. Who really wants to buy a D610 unless they are getting a fantastic deal on it?
09-05-2019, 03:13 AM - 1 Like   #15
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"on sale brand new today in Germany" =/= "in production"
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