F-Stoppers repeating rumour Olympus has less than twelve months left

**luftfluss** · 11-28-2019, 07:32 AM

Olympus released an updated lens roadmap.

kevinWE · 11-28-2019, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by Mistral75

I wouldn't be so affirmative if I were you.

Nikon are now forecasting an operating loss for their Imaging Products business in FY2020/3 (the current fiscal year). Whilst limited in percentage of revenue this loss is not anecdotal in value: ¥10bn, that's 92 million US dollars.

Besides, the Imaging Products business still generates more than 40% of the Nikon group's consolidated revenue.

In addition, Nikon's other businesses are performing poorly with limited profitability, negative for the (small) Medical business.

Should the profitability of Imaging Products go further south and the other businesses not improve the whole Nikon group would be in trouble.

The situation of the Olympus group is different: their Imaging business is bleeding money (operating loss for FY2020 1H = 30% of revenue) but it's tiny: its revenue represents 5.5% of the group's consolidated revenue. In addition, Olympus's Medical business is very profitable. The Olympus group's future is therefore not at stake.

I'm quite sure. Doom and gloom makes me laugh! Thanks for the chuckle.

2018 interchangeable lens camera worldwide market share report:
Canon: 49.1%
Nikon: 24.9%
Sony: 13.3%
All other companies (Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, Ricoh) combined have less than a 13% market share (the top 3 camera manufacturers gained 6.2% in 2018 to a total of 87.3%). The compact (fixed lens) digital camera market share shows similar numbers.

Read more: 2018 Canon, Nikon and Sony market share (latest Nikkei, BCN and CIPA reports) - Photo Rumors

The 2018 report showed Nikon well ahead of all major players excluding Canon. Am I to assume Sony and Ricoh are closing shop also? I hate getting involved in speculation sport. so I'll bow out here.

Mistral75 · 11-28-2019, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by luftfluss

Olympus released an updated lens roadmap.

The publication of this revised roadmap without any substantial piece of news (name of two lenses already on the roadmap but no further specifications, third Telephoto Zoom Pro lens added, no further details concerning the 150- 400mm F4.5 TC1.25x IS lens) looks like a damage control operation to mitigate the impact of the rumours concerning the possible sale or closure of Olympus Imaging.

Mistral75 · 11-28-2019, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by kevinWE

I'm quite sure. Doom and gloom makes me laugh! Thanks for the chuckle.

2018 interchangeable lens camera worldwide market share report:
Canon: 49.1%
Nikon: 24.9%
Sony: 13.3%
All other companies (Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, Ricoh) combined have less than a 13% market share (the top 3 camera manufacturers gained 6.2% in 2018 to a total of 87.3%). The compact (fixed lens) digital camera market share shows similar numbers.

Read more: 2018 Canon, Nikon and Sony market share (latest Nikkei, BCN and CIPA reports) - Photo Rumors

The 2018 report showed Nikon well ahead of all major players excluding Canon. Am I to assume Sony and Ricoh are closing shop also? I hate getting involved in speculation sport. so I'll bow out here.

You're mixing up revenue, trend in revenue (growth/decline) and profit. Being a large seller but loss maker, moreover with rapidly declining revenue, isn't an enviable position.

In addition, the market shares you quoted are in units, not revenue. One Rebel sold weighs as much as one D5 sold.

kevinWE · 11-28-2019, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Mistral75

You're mixing up revenue, trend in revenue (growth/decline) and profit. Being a large seller but loss maker, moreover with rapidly declining revenue, isn't an enviable position.

No, I'm not mixing anything up. Those numbers show Nikon still is going strong. As I said, I'm not into the speculation sport, so I'm done.

You can argue the numbers all you like, but using your logic Ricoh has already closed shop.

Mistral75 · 11-28-2019, 11:16 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by kevinWE

(...)

You can argue the numbers all you like, but using your logic Ricoh has already closed shop.

My logic, as you wrote, is about (i) trend in revenue and (ii) operating result.

Nikon imaging Products report declining revenue (by more than 20% year-on year) and forecast an operating loss.

Ricoh Imaging report increasing revenue and an operating profit.

Whilst much smaller than Nikon Imaging Products, Ricoh Imaging are therefore in a better position and far from closing shop. This is my so-called 'logic'.

**RGlasel** · 11-28-2019, 12:51 PM - **2 Likes**

Since the focus of this thread has now shifted to Nikon, I will mention that Imaging Products is a core part of Nikon's business and the other core part (semiconductor lithography) is a profitable, but cyclical business (currently the cycle is down) and is not in a position to pick up the slack from Imaging Products. Nikon will have to deal with its cost structure in Imaging in order to keep the overall company viable. There is an optical component to semiconductor lithography (Nikon settled its patent lawsuit against ASML and Zeiss this year in Nikon's favour) and concerns that ASML (which Intel has a 15% interest in) is close to becoming a monopoly, so there are reasons why third parties might step in to help keep both cores of Nikon away from Mt. Doom.

surfar · 11-29-2019, 02:11 AM

Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China)

Absolutely must be doomed

Only 4 cameras in 2019

**Rondec** · 11-29-2019, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by surfar

Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China)

Absolutely must be doomed

Only 4 cameras in 2019

But did they sell?

**UncleVanya** · 11-29-2019, 03:41 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by surfar

Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China)

Absolutely must be doomed

Only 4 cameras in 2019

Not sure how releasing models = financial success/stability.

surfar · 11-29-2019, 03:43 AM

The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed!

**UncleVanya** · 11-29-2019, 03:47 AM

Originally posted by surfar

The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed!

Honestly the EM1X mystified me. It seemed to be a bit too much. But I'm not the target market. My EM1 is a jewel, and the X seems like a me too camera that ignores the strengths of the brand. Mind you some reviews are very glowing.

**Rondec** · 11-29-2019, 03:56 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by surfar

The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed!

I think the point is that for the last ten years Olympus has either priced their cameras too low or just not sold enough (probably some of both) and ended up taking a loss on the camera division. So them releasing new cameras is nothing new, what would be new is if they started generating profit, or at least breaking even.

Mistral75 · 11-29-2019, 04:03 AM

Originally posted by surfar

Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China)

Absolutely must be doomed

Only 4 cameras in 2019

Four cameras indeed, of which::

- the Pen E-PL10, which is so close to the E-PL9 that it didn't need to be registered on its own; it uses the same registration as the E-PL9 (IM008)
- the Tough TG-6 that comes from an ODM, may be the same ODM as the one involved with the Ricoh WG cameras.

Mistral75 · 11-29-2019, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by surfar

The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed!

Apart from the OM-D E-M1 X, which is a niche product that will sell in limited quantities, how would the OM-D E-M5 III, Pen E-PL10 and Tough TG-6 succeed in turning Olympus Imaging around when the OM-D E-M5 I and II, the Pen E-PL1, E-PL1s, E-PL2, E-PL3, E-PL5, E-PL6, E-PL7, E-PL8 and E-PL9 and the Tough TG-1 iHS, TG-2 iHS, TG-3, TG-4 and TG-5 didn't?

11-28-2019, 10:48 AM	#122
kevinWE Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Illinois, USA Posts: 497	Originally posted by Mistral75 I wouldn't be so affirmative if I were you. Nikon are now forecasting an operating loss for their Imaging Products business in FY2020/3 (the current fiscal year). Whilst limited in percentage of revenue this loss is not anecdotal in value: ¥10bn, that's 92 million US dollars. Besides, the Imaging Products business still generates more than 40% of the Nikon group's consolidated revenue. In addition, Nikon's other businesses are performing poorly with limited profitability, negative for the (small) Medical business. Should the profitability of Imaging Products go further south and the other businesses not improve the whole Nikon group would be in trouble. The situation of the Olympus group is different: their Imaging business is bleeding money (operating loss for FY2020 1H = 30% of revenue) but it's tiny: its revenue represents 5.5% of the group's consolidated revenue. In addition, Olympus's Medical business is very profitable. The Olympus group's future is therefore not at stake. I'm quite sure. Doom and gloom makes me laugh! Thanks for the chuckle. 2018 interchangeable lens camera worldwide market share report: Canon: 49.1% Nikon: 24.9% Sony: 13.3% All other companies (Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, Ricoh) combined have less than a 13% market share (the top 3 camera manufacturers gained 6.2% in 2018 to a total of 87.3%). The compact (fixed lens) digital camera market share shows similar numbers. Read more: 2018 Canon, Nikon and Sony market share (latest Nikkei, BCN and CIPA reports) - Photo Rumors The 2018 report showed Nikon well ahead of all major players excluding Canon. Am I to assume Sony and Ricoh are closing shop also? I hate getting involved in speculation sport. so I'll bow out here. Last edited by kevinWE; 11-28-2019 at 10:55 AM.

11-29-2019, 02:11 AM	#128
surfar Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: mid nth coast,nsw Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,141	Olympus must be doomed! Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China) Absolutely must be doomed Only 4 cameras in 2019

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11-28-2019, 07:32 AM	#121
luftfluss Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: NJ Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 11,619	Olympus released an updated lens roadmap.

11-28-2019, 10:54 AM	#123
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527	Originally posted by luftfluss Olympus released an updated lens roadmap. The publication of this revised roadmap without any substantial piece of news (name of two lenses already on the roadmap but no further specifications, third Telephoto Zoom Pro lens added, no further details concerning the 150- 400mm F4.5 TC1.25x IS lens) looks like a damage control operation to mitigate the impact of the rumours concerning the possible sale or closure of Olympus Imaging.

11-28-2019, 11:03 AM	#124
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527	Originally posted by kevinWE I'm quite sure. Doom and gloom makes me laugh! Thanks for the chuckle. 2018 interchangeable lens camera worldwide market share report: Canon: 49.1% Nikon: 24.9% Sony: 13.3% All other companies (Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, Ricoh) combined have less than a 13% market share (the top 3 camera manufacturers gained 6.2% in 2018 to a total of 87.3%). The compact (fixed lens) digital camera market share shows similar numbers. Read more: 2018 Canon, Nikon and Sony market share (latest Nikkei, BCN and CIPA reports) - Photo Rumors The 2018 report showed Nikon well ahead of all major players excluding Canon. Am I to assume Sony and Ricoh are closing shop also? I hate getting involved in speculation sport. so I'll bow out here. You're mixing up revenue, trend in revenue (growth/decline) and profit. Being a large seller but loss maker, moreover with rapidly declining revenue, isn't an enviable position. In addition, the market shares you quoted are in units, not revenue. One Rebel sold weighs as much as one D5 sold.

11-28-2019, 11:06 AM	#125
kevinWE Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Illinois, USA Posts: 497	Originally posted by Mistral75 You're mixing up revenue, trend in revenue (growth/decline) and profit. Being a large seller but loss maker, moreover with rapidly declining revenue, isn't an enviable position. No, I'm not mixing anything up. Those numbers show Nikon still is going strong. As I said, I'm not into the speculation sport, so I'm done. You can argue the numbers all you like, but using your logic Ricoh has already closed shop.

11-28-2019, 11:16 AM - 1 Like	#126
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527	Originally posted by kevinWE (...) You can argue the numbers all you like, but using your logic Ricoh has already closed shop. My logic, as you wrote, is about (i) trend in revenue and (ii) operating result. Nikon imaging Products report declining revenue (by more than 20% year-on year) and forecast an operating loss. Ricoh Imaging report increasing revenue and an operating profit. Whilst much smaller than Nikon Imaging Products, Ricoh Imaging are therefore in a better position and far from closing shop. This is my so-called 'logic'.

11-28-2019, 12:51 PM - 2 Likes	#127
RGlasel Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Saskatoon Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 3,228	Since the focus of this thread has now shifted to Nikon, I will mention that Imaging Products is a core part of Nikon's business and the other core part (semiconductor lithography) is a profitable, but cyclical business (currently the cycle is down) and is not in a position to pick up the slack from Imaging Products. Nikon will have to deal with its cost structure in Imaging in order to keep the overall company viable. There is an optical component to semiconductor lithography (Nikon settled its patent lawsuit against ASML and Zeiss this year in Nikon's favour) and concerns that ASML (which Intel has a 15% interest in) is close to becoming a monopoly, so there are reasons why third parties might step in to help keep both cores of Nikon away from Mt. Doom.

11-29-2019, 03:15 AM	#129
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by surfar Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China) Absolutely must be doomed Only 4 cameras in 2019 But did they sell?

11-29-2019, 03:41 AM - 1 Like	#130
UncleVanya Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Jul 2014 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 28,404	Originally posted by surfar Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China) Absolutely must be doomed Only 4 cameras in 2019 Not sure how releasing models = financial success/stability.

11-29-2019, 03:43 AM	#131
surfar Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: mid nth coast,nsw Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,141	The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed!

11-29-2019, 03:47 AM	#132
UncleVanya Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Jul 2014 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 28,404	Originally posted by surfar The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed! Honestly the EM1X mystified me. It seemed to be a bit too much. But I'm not the target market. My EM1 is a jewel, and the X seems like a me too camera that ignores the strengths of the brand. Mind you some reviews are very glowing.

11-29-2019, 03:56 AM - 1 Like	#133
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by surfar The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed! I think the point is that for the last ten years Olympus has either priced their cameras too low or just not sold enough (probably some of both) and ended up taking a loss on the camera division. So them releasing new cameras is nothing new, what would be new is if they started generating profit, or at least breaking even.

11-29-2019, 04:03 AM	#134
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527	Originally posted by surfar Only released big boy X model,highly stabilised and sealed.Em5 the third,6xth edition of the tough guyand next week the tenth Pen(Japan and China) Absolutely must be doomed Only 4 cameras in 2019 Four cameras indeed, of which:: - the Pen E-PL10, which is so close to the E-PL9 that it didn't need to be registered on its own; it uses the same registration as the E-PL9 (IM008) - the Tough TG-6 that comes from an ODM, may be the same ODM as the one involved with the Ricoh WG cameras.

11-29-2019, 04:10 AM	#135
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527	Originally posted by surfar The X is aimed at Professionals,Pen hasn't sold one yet but is available to preorder.5 is just on the market and the Tough leads that segment.Oly could turn things around or be doomed! Apart from the OM-D E-M1 X, which is a niche product that will sell in limited quantities, how would the OM-D E-M5 III, Pen E-PL10 and Tough TG-6 succeed in turning Olympus Imaging around when the OM-D E-M5 I and II, the Pen E-PL1, E-PL1s, E-PL2, E-PL3, E-PL5, E-PL6, E-PL7, E-PL8 and E-PL9 and the Tough TG-1 iHS, TG-2 iHS, TG-3, TG-4 and TG-5 didn't?