CIPA shipments October 2019 - More mirrorless cameras shipped than DSLRs

ecostigny · 12-04-2019, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Rondec

The issue is primarily to do with what SLRs and what MILCs are being released. Top end APS-C cameras like the 7D II and D500 have not been replaced, nor have cameras like the D750, 6D II, and 5D MK IV. When all you are releasing new are lower end D3xxx and Txi cameras, your price is decreasing. At the same time, the only cameras they have released for MILC have been pretty expensive.

I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless. Both manufacturers may be counting on a halo effect to reverse the trends of the last few years.

**RGlasel** · 12-04-2019, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by ecostigny

I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless.

I need another 63 posts this month

, so I will comment that you might be right about a modification of the bifurcation (great word, by the way

) of the camera market, but possibly because Nikon and Canon will stop trying to stimulate sales of lower value DSLRs and the product mix will change, even if they don't see a halo effect from updated D5's and 1D's.

D5's and 1D's are low volume products, even in better years, so most likely the DSLR to MILC ratio will continue to move in favour of MILC next year, even if mirrorless sales in 2020 are lower than in 2019. I don't think a new DSLR from Pentax will be enough to reverse that trend (but I could be wrong

). The overall camera market has shrunk so much that new products are the only things that move the needle for sales, but the potential sales volume for new products is too small to justify major investments in developing those new products. In the next few years, both DSLR and MILC camera buyers will have fewer products to choose from. The only question is, in what year does the decline in camera sales bottom out and which products will still be manufactured?

Mistral75 · 12-04-2019, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by ecostigny

I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless. Both manufacturers may be counting on a halo effect to reverse the trends of the last few years.

The Canon EOS 90D doesn't seem to have had any impact on its own. At least in France, sales are very low.

Take-5-JB · 12-06-2019, 03:43 PM

Biz-Engineer,

You may have identified a situation of violating the Sherman Anti-trust Laws, if any of it occurred in the USA.

JB

**RGlasel** · 12-06-2019, 04:34 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Take-5-JB

You may have identified a situation of violating the Sherman Anti-trust Laws, if any of it occurred in the USA.

I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition.

ecostigny · 12-06-2019, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by RGlasel

I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition.

Sony seems to be benefiting from its head start in the mirrorless FF space by claiming the top spot in Japan's FF camera market, even with the near-simultaneous arrival of three competitors. We'll have to see if the late arrivals can make any headway.

**Rondec** · 12-07-2019, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by RGlasel

I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition.

I don't think there was any collusion at all. Canon and Nikon had ridden their legacy mounts for a long time and sales were dropping and they decided to branch out into MILC territory. Clearly they were both responding to the same market conditions. It is just hard when you are late to the party (Sony had launched MILCs at about every price point already) and don't have a complete lens line up for your new mount. Planning is all well and good, but if consumers don't buy the bodies and lenses then companies end up having to discount the gear.

With regard to Panasonic, my understanding was that their move was more an attempt to get higher end video devices to the market before the Tokyo Olympics.

beholder3 · 12-07-2019, 07:54 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Madaboutpix

I bet beholder3 is already busy preparing one of his signature-style charts based on these data, which would be most welcome of course, especially for visual learning types like me.

Usually October is the best month of the year (the second best is April) and from there onwards to January/February sales will drop as much as half.

Recent Data from last year:

And then the long term view:

**Madaboutpix** · 12-07-2019, 08:26 AM

Yesss. Give us those charts we're lusting for.

Seriously, much appreciated.

ecostigny · 12-07-2019, 01:08 PM

Mmmm...good data in graphical form...(starts drooling)...

biz-engineer · 12-08-2019, 12:07 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by ecostigny

We'll have to see if the late arrivals can make any headway.

It's not a surprise that camera sales aren't so good: the new mirrorless models aren't that great (for most of them the ergonomic / bodies designs are not good) and expensive.

**mlt** · 12-08-2019, 01:49 PM

Sony has how many different mirrorless bodies for sale? I don’t doubt the trends, but I wonder what the graphs would look like if they were normalized for latest current models by each manufacturer.

Mistral75 · 12-08-2019, 03:41 PM

^

Why not count all cameras shipped to importers, distributors and retailers?

By definition, all cameras manufacturers are able to ship are 'current'.

**mlt** · 12-08-2019, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Mistral75

^

Why not count all cameras shipped to importers, distributors and retailers?

By definition, all cameras manufacturers are able to ship are 'current'.

That’s why I included the word ‘latest’ to not include models that were replaced in the preceding year(s) if they are indeed counting those.

Mistral75 · 12-08-2019, 10:21 PM

A camera shipped is a camera shipped, I'm afraid I don't see the logic in your proposal.

12-04-2019, 11:59 AM	#32
RGlasel Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Saskatoon Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 3,228	Originally posted by ecostigny I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless. I need another 63 posts this month, so I will comment that you might be right about a modification of the bifurcation (great word, by the way) of the camera market, but possibly because Nikon and Canon will stop trying to stimulate sales of lower value DSLRs and the product mix will change, even if they don't see a halo effect from updated D5's and 1D's. D5's and 1D's are low volume products, even in better years, so most likely the DSLR to MILC ratio will continue to move in favour of MILC next year, even if mirrorless sales in 2020 are lower than in 2019. I don't think a new DSLR from Pentax will be enough to reverse that trend (but I could be wrong). The overall camera market has shrunk so much that new products are the only things that move the needle for sales, but the potential sales volume for new products is too small to justify major investments in developing those new products. In the next few years, both DSLR and MILC camera buyers will have fewer products to choose from. The only question is, in what year does the decline in camera sales bottom out and which products will still be manufactured?

12-07-2019, 07:54 AM - 1 Like	#38
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112	Originally posted by Madaboutpix I bet beholder3 is already busy preparing one of his signature-style charts based on these data, which would be most welcome of course, especially for visual learning types like me. Usually October is the best month of the year (the second best is April) and from there onwards to January/February sales will drop as much as half. Recent Data from last year: And then the long term view: Attached Images

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12-04-2019, 10:57 AM	#31
ecostigny Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Branford, CT Posts: 561	Originally posted by Rondec The issue is primarily to do with what SLRs and what MILCs are being released. Top end APS-C cameras like the 7D II and D500 have not been replaced, nor have cameras like the D750, 6D II, and 5D MK IV. When all you are releasing new are lower end D3xxx and Txi cameras, your price is decreasing. At the same time, the only cameras they have released for MILC have been pretty expensive. I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless. Both manufacturers may be counting on a halo effect to reverse the trends of the last few years.

12-04-2019, 04:05 PM	#33
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527 Original Poster	Originally posted by ecostigny I wonder if Canon's and Nikon's announced high-end DSLRs (The EOS-1D X III and D6, coming in time for next year's Olympic Games in Tokyo) will have any effect on the apparent bifurcation of the market into lower-priced DSLRs and higher-priced FF mirrorless. Both manufacturers may be counting on a halo effect to reverse the trends of the last few years. The Canon EOS 90D doesn't seem to have had any impact on its own. At least in France, sales are very low.

12-06-2019, 03:43 PM	#34
Take-5-JB Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: South Carolina Posts: 236	Biz-Engineer, You may have identified a situation of violating the Sherman Anti-trust Laws, if any of it occurred in the USA. JB

12-06-2019, 04:34 PM - 1 Like	#35
RGlasel Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Saskatoon Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 3,228	Originally posted by Take-5-JB You may have identified a situation of violating the Sherman Anti-trust Laws, if any of it occurred in the USA. I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition.

12-06-2019, 05:46 PM	#36
ecostigny Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Branford, CT Posts: 561	Originally posted by RGlasel I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition. Sony seems to be benefiting from its head start in the mirrorless FF space by claiming the top spot in Japan's FF camera market, even with the near-simultaneous arrival of three competitors. We'll have to see if the late arrivals can make any headway.

12-07-2019, 04:35 AM	#37
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,652	Originally posted by RGlasel I'm assuming you are referring to " I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time." (One of these days, I'll figure out how to multi-quote) If @biz-engineer is right (and for the record I don't think he is) any collusion between Nikon, Canon and Panasonic was done in Japan, not the U.S. and it failed miserably. Camera manufacturers have excess capacity because demand has dropped off a cliff, the reason the average price for cameras is going up is because the few camera buyers left are buying more expensive models. Sony had a defacto monopoly on FF mirrorless cameras, Canon, Nikon and Panasonic entering this market increases, not decreases competition. I don't think there was any collusion at all. Canon and Nikon had ridden their legacy mounts for a long time and sales were dropping and they decided to branch out into MILC territory. Clearly they were both responding to the same market conditions. It is just hard when you are late to the party (Sony had launched MILCs at about every price point already) and don't have a complete lens line up for your new mount. Planning is all well and good, but if consumers don't buy the bodies and lenses then companies end up having to discount the gear. With regard to Panasonic, my understanding was that their move was more an attempt to get higher end video devices to the market before the Tokyo Olympics.

12-07-2019, 08:26 AM	#39
Madaboutpix Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: North Rhine-Westphalia Posts: 1,440	Yesss. Give us those charts we're lusting for. Seriously, much appreciated.

12-07-2019, 01:08 PM	#40
ecostigny Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Branford, CT Posts: 561	Mmmm...good data in graphical form...(starts drooling)...

12-08-2019, 12:07 PM - 1 Like	#41
biz-engineer Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2015 Photos: Gallery Posts: 12,231	Originally posted by ecostigny We'll have to see if the late arrivals can make any headway. It's not a surprise that camera sales aren't so good: the new mirrorless models aren't that great (for most of them the ergonomic / bodies designs are not good) and expensive.

12-08-2019, 01:49 PM	#42
mlt Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,159	Sony has how many different mirrorless bodies for sale? I don’t doubt the trends, but I wonder what the graphs would look like if they were normalized for latest current models by each manufacturer.

12-08-2019, 03:41 PM	#43
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527 Original Poster	^ Why not count all cameras shipped to importers, distributors and retailers? By definition, all cameras manufacturers are able to ship are 'current'.

12-08-2019, 04:39 PM	#44
mlt Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,159	Originally posted by Mistral75 ^ Why not count all cameras shipped to importers, distributors and retailers? By definition, all cameras manufacturers are able to ship are 'current'. That’s why I included the word ‘latest’ to not include models that were replaced in the preceding year(s) if they are indeed counting those.

12-08-2019, 10:21 PM	#45
Mistral75 Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Paris, France Posts: 7,527 Original Poster	A camera shipped is a camera shipped, I'm afraid I don't see the logic in your proposal.