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12-02-2019, 03:23 AM - 2 Likes   #1
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CIPA shipments October 2019 - More mirrorless cameras shipped than DSLRs

CIPA, the Japanese Camera & Imaging Products Association, published today production and shipment data for the month of October and for the first ten months of 2019.

For the first time ever, more mirrorless cameras than DSLRs were shipped in October (expressed in JP¥, shipment of mirrorless cameras has surpassed shipment of DSLRs since September 2018).
  • DSLRs shipped in October 2019: 428,796 units totalling ¥15.9bn
  • Mirrorless cameras shipped in October 2019: 444,627 units totalling ¥31.6bn

Source: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201910_e.pdf (see also http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201910_e.pdf for lens production and shipment).

12-02-2019, 05:18 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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Interesting that though mirrorless cameras are apparently easier to make (and I'm assuming a reduced production cost) that the value is almost double that of DSLRs despite only an addition 16K units shipping. Those Sony A series cameras are way overpriced. A bit nuts that you can get either a FF A7 or A7ii for less than the price of some of said APS-C A series.
12-02-2019, 06:21 AM - 1 Like   #3
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With DSLR models approaching end-of-life, it's not a surprise that mirrorless models will gradually become the dominant type of ILC. It's not because mirrorless is necessarily better, it's because if you are a buyer of new ILC model, you have no choice other than a mirrorless system. And in two years from now, when new improved sensors will be more pervasive in mirrorless models only, customers will have no reason to buy a DSLR. The camera market isn't a free market, there is some kind of non-explicit agreement between camera brands about how to bend the camera market in certain directions. I don't believe it was a coincidence that Nikon, Canon and Panasonic announced new mirroless systems roughtly within a three months time around Photokina 2018, they had likely all agreed to start mirrorless product R&D at the same time. Basically, customers are told what to buy.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 12-02-2019 at 06:29 AM.
12-02-2019, 08:02 AM - 1 Like   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
if you are a buyer of new ILC model, you have no choice other than a mirrorless system.
Eh? DSLRs are no longer available? Canon no longer do the 5D4, Nikon don’t do the D850 (amongst other models)??? And Pentax, have they dropped the K1ii and KP?

Shome mistake, shurely?

12-02-2019, 08:12 AM   #5
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Interesting analysis, thanks! I'm guessing that christmas presents are a big influence in this.
12-02-2019, 08:14 AM   #6
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Considering the number of mirrorless models currently available vs the number of DSLR models currently available, those numbers aren't
surprising. I think it shows DSLRs are still a strong sell. Nonetheless, Canon and Nikon entering into the MILC arena has certainly expanded
the offerings available and I'm sure that has had a lot to do with the increased MILC sales. It will be interesting to see how both manufaturers
continue to support their DSLR platforms over the next few years.
12-02-2019, 08:19 AM   #7
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That's what we expected when Nikon and Canon switched focus to mirrorless. I'm surprised it didn't happen earlier.

DSLRs still have a market and will still have for a while, but we'll see how much of a niche they will stay.

The recent comments from Ricoh regarding a possible mirrorless entry were made when they were probably knowing this information already. Especially the money figure.
12-02-2019, 09:02 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
more mirrorless cameras than DSLRs were shipped in October
The difference between mirrorless shipped and produced (in units) is larger than the difference between mirrorless and DSLR produced, production of DSLRs was ever so slightly higher than mirrorless in October. Since mirrorless production (in units) is up over September 2019 and October 2018, this suggests that DSLR manufacturers are building inventories, whether they intended to or not. It is also worth noting that mirrorless production for Jan-Oct 2019 is still down -15% compared to Jan-Oct 2018, so we can see the effect of Canon and Nikon building mirrorless inventories last year to support the launch of new lines. The real story is how badly DSLR sales are dropping.

DSLR sales are dropping fastest in Japan (only 16,002 DSLRs were shipped to Japan in October, almost a 60% drop from October 2018), although for the Jan-Oct period, it is more severe in Asia-not including Japan. The CIPA stats also show significant discrepancies between global regions, Asia-not including Japan and Europe were especially strong in October for mirrorless, Americas and Japan were down for mirrorless compared to October 2018 and for the Jan-Oct period, mirrorless for Asia (including Japan this time) is down compared to the same period in 2018. The Japanese market for all ILCs was so dead in October it was only double that of the Others region (Australia, Africa and the Middle East); I didn't do a historical analysis, but I'm sure that ratio has never so low and I don't think the Japanese market in general has ever been so insignificant in global terms.

The per unit value of mirrorless is much higher for the Jan-Oct period compared to 2018 (it actually declined for DSLRs). The significance of this is that introducing new product lines are fixed expenses that need to be covered by sales volume and inevitably higher prices result in lower unit volumes (especially in mature markets). If you are an accountant for a camera manufacturer, that makes it very difficult to justify developing new product lines, even if they are mirrorless, because the potential unit volume is too low to cover the initial fixed costs. Camera manufacturing is more and more becoming a specialty business catering to professionals and professional wannabees with higher than average disposible income and there is nothing to indicate that the number of people in either category is increasing.

12-02-2019, 09:12 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
(...) The Japanese market for all ILCs was so dead in October it was only double that of the Others region (Australia, Africa and the Middle East); I didn't do a historical analysis, but I'm sure that ratio has never so low and I don't think the Japanese market in general has ever been so insignificant in global terms.

(...)
That's most probably because of the increase in the rate of the Japanese consumption tax on the 1st of October, 2019, from 8% to 10%.
12-02-2019, 09:32 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
That's most probably because of the increase in the rate of the Japanese consumption tax on the 1st of October, 2019, from 8% to 10%.
Perhaps, but GDP has been increasing this year better than forecast and the national savings rate has been dropping since the end of 2017. I also wonder how much of an impact the shrinking of the Japanese market relative to the global market is having on the management of Japanese headquartered camera manufacturers.
12-02-2019, 10:25 AM   #11
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Interesting report.
12-02-2019, 10:34 AM - 1 Like   #12
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The value differential is crazy. I know companies have been pushing FF mirrorless hard, and I'm guessing it's a combo of that and most remaining DSLR sales being Rebels and the like.
12-02-2019, 10:57 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by selfnoise Quote
The value differential is crazy. I know companies have been pushing FF mirrorless hard, and I'm guessing it's a combo of that and most remaining DSLR sales being Rebels and the like.
Wasn’t the EOS-M series the best seller in Japan recently? That would pull the average value of MILCs down as much as Rebels do.
12-02-2019, 11:29 AM   #14
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I bet beholder3 is already busy preparing one of his signature-style charts based on these data, which would be most welcome of course, especially for visual learning types like me.
12-02-2019, 12:07 PM - 1 Like   #15
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...

And what? This year Ricoh confirmed his commitment to follow with DSLRs, even with APS-C format. Otherwise there would be no 11-18/2,8. And I am convinced that there is a future for both systems.
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