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12-17-2019, 04:40 AM   #1
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Pattern in price changes, sales

Obviously "Black Friday" is an example but is there any other times of the year to be alert to "deals" like after-christmas sales? Is there a pattern to camera/lens price reductions over time or as new models come on the market?

12-17-2019, 05:03 AM   #2
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Moved to Photographic Industry forum...
12-17-2019, 07:23 AM - 2 Likes   #3
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People have been trying to figure that out for years and as far as I know, with no success. Outside of the Black Friday deals there is no real pattern.


Conventional wisdom held that:
- Price cuts on an old model meant an new one was imminent. But in recent years Pentax has not released a new model until inventory on the older model was low or non-existent.

- The release of a new model would mean a quick price drop on the model it replaced. But in fact several times the price of the older model has gone up as inventory dwindled and people got back-up or replacement bodies.

- The release of a new model would flood the market with used cameras that could be bought cheaply. This one has had some truth but not nearly what was expected. There are always some used bodies on the market but the flood as people traded up has not really happened in Pentax land like it has for other brands. People have tended to keep their older bodies as back-ups.


So bottom line: if you want it, buy it and enjoy it. Waiting months or years for a "deal" means months or years you don't get to use it. What is a new camera worth to you per day? Lets say a sale is expected in May. And you can get $150 off the body you want. That's 150 days away so $1 per day. Is it worth getting it now for $1 per day? That's up to you of course.


Ricoh / Pentax is not a marketing driven company like Canon. So expecting them to act in a manner consistent with modern consumerism leads to confusion. Whether their marketing department is completely clueless, just refuses to play the sale game or has some other master plan we are not aware of is unknown. But trying to figure them out has been frustrating to say the least.
12-17-2019, 07:41 AM - 6 Likes   #4
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Murphy's law says camera prices will be discounted when you are absolutely broke and prices will be at an
absolute maximum when you really, really need to purchase something.

Murphy's law also says that as soon as you've purchased something, the price will shortly afterward come
down a LOT.

I'd advise checking your bank account and assessing your need as it will be a very accurate gauge of the
current price of the gear your want.

12-17-2019, 10:30 AM   #5
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Truth!
Furthermore, Murphy was an optimist :-)



QuoteOriginally posted by tvdtvdtvd Quote
Murphy's law says camera prices will be discounted when you are absolutely broke and prices will be at an
absolute maximum when you really, really need to purchase something.

Murphy's law also says that as soon as you've purchased something, the price will shortly afterward come
down a LOT.

I'd advise checking your bank account and assessing your need as it will be a very accurate gauge of the
current price of the gear your want.
12-17-2019, 12:17 PM   #6
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Though some sales coincide with holidays or trade events, the best strategy is to stay on top of posts on the forum and our homepage, as some deals come and go very quickly.

You should also sign up for price alerts through our deal finder for items of interest to you:

Pentax Camera & Lens Deal Finder

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12-17-2019, 01:12 PM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Adam Quote
Though some sales coincide with holidays or trade events, the best strategy is to stay on top of posts on the forum and our homepage, as some deals come and go very quickly.

You should also sign up for price alerts through our deal finder for items of interest to you:

Pentax Camera & Lens Deal Finder
Adam,

I use the info you provide and thank you for the effort to keep current with the market. My thinking, such as it is, behind my question was targeted at long-term planning or even contingency planning. I recently bought a used Pentax 50mm 1.8 based entirely on data and responses to a question on PF. Today, I ordered a used Tamron 24-105 as at least a stop gap until a rich uncle leaves me a fortune (I don't have a rich uncle).
12-18-2019, 12:04 AM   #8
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I donot have an answer to the opening question, but I think it strongly depends on local markets. At present in Italy the lowest price of a new KP is 800 euros. In black friday days it was 650, but only in a single online shop, who knows how affordable. Otherwise +700 euros. From time to time one finds a used KP on ebay for about 650/700 euros.For what I saw last years, the best moment for online used cameras is end of January. For new ones it seems nothing changes.

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