[mlt]

Have there been any talk about or hints about how the Corona virus outbreak in China is, or has effected camera and lens production? Will it impact future releases by any of the major players?

[volley]

I think I was lucky that my scheduled trip to China from Jan 10th to 22nd got cancelled (not because of the virus). I am consulting for several chinese companies and have daily contact with my co-workers over there.

It is very likely that production facilities (not just for cameras or lenses) will face difficulties to resume normal operation after the Spring Festival break, which is supposed to end in very few days. Many factories have extended the closure already for another 1 or 2 weeks. As you may know for Spring Festival many workers are travelling to their home towns to meet their families. Due to the imposed travel restrictions many of them will not have a chance to travel back to the city where they are working. So even if factories want to resume production they will most likely not have the usual staff level and the same applies for their sub-suppliers. The complete supply chain will see a significant challenges.

But my expectation (having extensively traveled to China for 20 years) is that this will be a matter of very few weeks. Things will start to normalize, I hope. My next trip is scheduled for mid-march.

[Alex645]

Have there been any talk about or hints about how the Corona virus outbreak in China is, or has effected camera and lens production? Will it impact future releases by any of the major players?

Our news is very biased or controlled by corporations, politics, and social media. While the focus is on the coronavirus in Wuhan, China killing nearly 100+ people, this flu season (since Oct. 2019) in the US alone has seen an estimated 8000-20,000 deaths according to the CDC.

Ricoh/Pentax camera manufacturing is mostly based out of the Philippines, lenses from Vietnam, and HQ in Japan. Of course parts may come from China but a true epidemic would impact the biggest multinationals more than the smaller corporations like Ricoh.

[Larrymc]

Our news is very biased or controlled by corporations, politics, and social media. While the focus is on the coronavirus in Wuhan, China killing nearly 100+ people, this flu season (since Oct. 2019) in the US alone has seen an estimated 8000-20,000 deaths according to the CDC.

Deaths from what the Coronavirus?? You might want to clarify this statement a bit!

[Alex645]

Deaths from what the Coronavirus?? You might want to clarify this statement a bit!

I wrote 8-20k deaths in the US from the flu; not the coronavirus. The point being an imbalance of news about fears about coronavirus and an underreporting of the bigger problem, other strains of the flu.

I am not in the medical field, but as I understand it, the coronavirus is not the same as influenza and the flu is much more deadly.

[pentaxic]

"this flu season (since Oct. 2019) in the US alone has seen an estimated 8000-20,000 deaths according to the CDC."

Every year in the US this time of year all strains of influenza Excluding the Super Strains e.g. Ebola & Corona

[dstar]

On 12/19 CDC report
In US 136 flue related child mortality case
1235 adult mortality case
With complication flue
Mostly in 57% not vaccinated

[tokyoscape]

Have there been any talk about or hints about how the Corona virus outbreak in China is, or has effected camera and lens production? Will it impact future releases by any of the major players?

I don't think it will effect much in short to mid term speaking.
I guess most Japanese brand manufacture / assemble camera and lenses in Southeast Asia but they import some part from China which could be and being stocked. The 2011 Thailand floods seems to have more immediate impact to some brand like Nikon.

---------- Post added 01-29-20 at 04:45 PM ----------



(--- sorry, After a second read, and I agree with the moderator. My comments here could be seen as political commentary. I am removing it myself ---)

[photoptimist]

Flu really isn't that deadly. It only seems that way because so many people catch it. "CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu." (see Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC)

That's a minuscule 0.055% death rate.

What scares the poop out of epidemiologists is that coronaviruses have higher fatality rates (up to 10%), no vaccines, and no guarantees that a mutation might make the virus much more deadly.

If the Chinese are being honest, it looks like this virus kills 2%, making if 36X more deadly that the flu.

If 15 million Americans caught this, there would be 300,000 dead. (Note: the US only as 1 million hospital beds so having 15 million sick with coronavirus would not be a pretty sight!)

[BigMackCam]

Flu really isn't that deadly. It only seems that way because so many people catch it. "CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu." (see Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC)

That's a minuscule 0.055% death rate.

What scares the poop out of epidemiologists is that coronaviruses have higher fatality rates (up to 10%), no vaccines, and no guarantees that a mutation might make the virus much more deadly.

If the Chinese are being honest, it looks like this virus kills 2%, making if 36X more deadly that the flu.

If 15 million Americans caught this, there would be 300,000 dead. (Note: the US only as 1 million hospital beds so having 15 million sick with coronavirus would not be a pretty sight!)

One can't help thinking that the potential impact on camera, lens and component manufacturing is the least of our concerns...

[swanlefitte]

That's a minuscule 0.055% death rate.

I was doing calculations based on what data I could find. I guestimated bad flu years in the us have 0.003% mortality and this new 2019 cov has about 0.008%
Suppose 150 dead and 16,000 , not unreasonable but not known. All flu is concerning and this is more so but not apocalyptic by itself.

[photoptimist]

One can't help thinking that the potential impact on camera, lens and component manufacturing is the least of our concerns...

Indeed!

Fortunately, if the experience with this coronavirus is anything like that of SARS was, this one will probably be slowed and stopped after a bit of a nail-biting period -- the system will work.

As scary as a new disease could be (and there are some truly horrendous little cooties floating around out there), the tools available to most modern societies are fairly good at mobilizing resources for containment, treatment, and prevention.

Thus, some inconvenience, some anxiety, and a relatively modest number of very sad stories are the most likely scenario.

[monochrome]

Due to travel restrictions and quarantines the manufacturing and supply chain of much of the Pacific Basin will be disrupted during the 1st Qtr. We estimate China GDP growth will be 1.2% lower, annualized, than it otherwise would have been during the 1st Qtr.

[Digitalis]

What scares the poop out of epidemiologists is that coronaviruses have higher fatality rates (up to 10%), no vaccines, and no guarantees that a mutation might make the virus much more deadly.

No kidding, another big problem with the vaccine that is being developed is will it protect broadly enough? Influenza isn't just one virus, its a whole family of mutant strains. RNA transcription is an inherently error prone replication process* - which is why viruses replicate in such numbers to help evade selective pressures and improve the chances of survival.

As scary as a new disease could be (and there are some truly horrendous little cooties floating around out there), the tools available to most modern societies are fairly good at mobilizing resources for containment, treatment, and prevention.

The period of time over which the infection is contagious is of great concern as well, there comes a point where better transport will also encourage wider spread of deadly infections. Killing the host is counterproductive to the ultimate survival of a disease, if it can't spread fast enough. Treating those already infected, Identifying those who are contagious and keeping them contained will be a huge burden especially if the number of cases continues to rise. We are already begining to see industries being shuttered - that has got to hurt economically.


* The common cold, SARS, West Nile Fever, Ebola, Rabies,Hepatitis E/C are all RNA viruses.

[Silent Street]

A vaccine is now being concocted by scientists at the University of Queensland here in Australia, which is being developed from research using monkey kidneys and "old school science". The viral code has only recently been cracked and sequenced. nCoV is being diagnosed in Chinese students returning to Australia from Hubei and Wuhan for their University studies. There are isolation protocols active now at student accommodation in Melbourne.