[KiloHotelphoto]

I wish they released sales numbers like the auto manufacturers do. It would be interesting to see just how many of each body is being sold.

[RGlasel]

I wish they released sales numbers like the auto manufacturers do.

The sales by model reporting done by automobile manufacturers for the U.S. and Canada is only quarterly since sometime last year when FCA (Fiat Chrysler America) refused to supply data on a monthly basis. It used to be weekly, but General Motors stopped doing that some time ago (when it became a welfare client in 2008?). Until October 2019, Tesla wasn't reporting at all and there is always a question mark beside manufacturers that own their own dealer network, because the manufacturer might be willing to carry unsold inventory on dealer lots for a long time, whereas a dealer franchisee typically starts paying interest after 90 days.

My point is that this sales reporting is done because the manufacturers want reliable, third party reporting that they can use to calculate pay incentives and rate management performance. It has nothing to do with customers and for most industry organizations that publish this kind of data, enough details are omitted that individual manufacturers can only rate their own performance, so that they have to guess how effective their competitors' marketing campaigns are. I don't know the historical reasons why automobile manufacturers in Canada and the U.S. have been providing their data in such detail, because it goes back much further than 1984 when I worked for Ford Motor Company. I suspect it was because of a government decree to prevent manufacturers from manipulating the market by dumping or holding back inventory, putting some dealers at a disadvantage compared to other dealers. I don't think Japan has the same kind of anti-racketeering regulatory regime that the U.S. has.

The turnover for new cameras is much slower than for automobiles, retailers are not restricted to buying from only one manufacturer and the current market situation is extremely grim. It isn't in the best interests of any camera manufacturer to publish their sales by model and there is lots of opportunity to manipulate sales figures in order to avoid being fired. If any of the big three camera manufacturers decide to quit contributing to CIPA stats, the other two will immediately do the same thing, in order to keep their competitive information confidential.

[Mistral75]

Each car is registered with a lot of details (make, model, type of fuel, horsepower and so on) to obtain a licence plate and these data are available to third parties, at least here in France, hence the publication of very precise statistics.

There is no such thing for cameras.

[RGlasel]

Each car is registered with a lot of details (make, model, type of fuel, horsepower and so on) to obtain a licence plate and these data are available to third parties, at least here in France, hence the publication of very precise statistics.

it's the same in North America, but the value of unsold inventory in dealer hands is probably in the billions (which doesn't show up in vehicle registration databases for several months) and 30-40 years ago, the weekly reports were used to justify the allocation of dealer and customer incentives to help manage that inventory. These thing have their own inertia; once the industry is steered to all go in the same direction, making changes is really difficult.

[Fogel70]

It is clear that the digital photography boom is long over for camera manufacturers, and sales figures on ILC is heading back to something like it was in the film days.

Which is to be expected from a fully mature market, where technical advancements are no longer enough for motivating users to replace gear. The ILC market is also back to mostly interest enthusiasts, as an ILC is no longer the only way to get decent image quality.

[beholder3]

It is clear that the digital photography boom is long over for camera manufacturers, and sales figures on ILC is heading back to something like it was in the film days.

I wouldnt expect to see the level of film days.

In those days you had to have a specvialised camera to keep memories. Now everyone already has a camera in his phone. I would rather expect ILC sales to go back to where medium format film cameras were. Those were the enthusiasts who wouldnt accept a tiny consumer grade "sensor".

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

Shock news! - mirrorless sales are falling faster than DSLR sales!!

Where do you see that? The mirrorless shipments are basically staying flat. The upgrade cycle is now longer, so the sales they lose because of that, they just manage to compensate with new customers or with customers transitioning from DSLRs.

Meanwhile, the MILC market value is now exceeding the DSLR one in all markets, including the Americas. It's only in unit numbers that MILCs are slightly trailing behind DSLRs still - but by the end of this year, that should change as well.

I just plotted graphs from CIPA data on my blog.

[normhead]

Where do you see that?

Do we need to repost the graph and circle the important part for you?

Or can you figure it out?

I just plotted graphs from CIPA data on my blog.

You mean you did projections? What's posted is plotted graphs. Look at the graphs, you can see what plotted projections would be worth at any point on the graph.

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

Do we need to repost the graph and circle the important part for you?

Or can you figure it out?



You mean you did projections? What's posted is plotted graphs. Look at the graphs, you can see what plotted projections would be worth at any point on the graph.

Yes, please point out what you think is the important part. Thank you.

The plotted graphs show that the MILC volume has been steady from 2012 to 2019. What happens in one month or another does not matter if the yearly volume doesn't change much.

[normhead]

I see whaat you're saying, MILC sales have held steady, DSLR sales are falling, but that's only relevant because until 2019 DSLR sales were in the lead. MILC sales have never approached what DSLR sales were in Sept. 2019. But it looks to me like DSLR sales are still ahead of MILC for 2019 even if they had more sales for the last few months.

On the other hand, you can see MILC lens sales are turning into a real cash cow for MILC producers. No doubt because they are not completely compatible with older DSLR lenses. DSLR lenses are relatively steady by comparison. Anytime a company can convince you to stop using their old stuff and by all new stuff, that's an angle worth pursuing.

For most of the year DSLR sales were well ahead of MILC as well as for total volume of sales for the year. Let's see what next year brings. MILC have been ahead since October.. let's see if they can hold on for a complete year.

[Laurentiu Cristofor]

It really seems the makers have not yet seen rock bottom.

The really sharp drop in DSLM sales with a continued erosion of DSLM prices probably will not make them happy.

But then: January data usually is even worse than December. So more bad news for the sellers to come. On the good (buyer) side this makes further price drops for last years toys even more probable.

What data are you plotting there exactly? Because the CIPA data for December 2019 does not match your graphs.

December 2019 data: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201912_e.pdf

Fixed lens shipments: 411,274
ILC shipments: 640,714
SLR shipments: 302,449
MILC shipments: 338,265

So MILC shipments > SLR shipments for December 2019, not the other way around as your graph shows. Did you copy paste data from the wrong column?

---------- Post added 02-13-20 at 12:13 PM ----------

I see whaat you're saying, MILC sales have held steady, DSLR sales are falling, but that's only relevant because until 2019 DSLR sales were in the lead. MILC sales have never approached what DSLR sales were in Sept. 2019. But it looks to me like DSLR sales are still ahead of MILC for 2019 even if they had more sales for the last few months.

On the other hand, you can see MILC lens sales are turning into a real cash cow for MILC producers. No doubt because they are not completely compatible with older DSLR lenses. DSLR lenses are relatively steady by comparison. Anytime a company can convince you to stop using their old stuff and by all new stuff, that's an angle worth pursuing.

For most of the year DSLR sales were well ahead of MILC as well as for total volume of sales for the year. Let's see what next year brings. MILC have been ahead since October.. let's see if they can hold on for a complete year.

Yes, DSLR shipments are still greater than MILC shipments: 4,504,987 units vs. 3,956,503. This is mainly because of the Americas and also because in Europe DSLRs maintain a smaller lead. But in Asia the MILC units have already exceeded DSLR ones. Anyway, the value of MILC shipments exceeds that of DSLR shipments: 282,369,840 thousands Yen vs 174,635,831. And the market value is the more important part, because that's what drives the profits of the makers (everyone also agreed that MILCs are cheaper to manufacture than DSLRs, hence they are clearly more profitable now).

I have never looked at CIPA lens data before. But where do you see the breakdown between MILC and DSLR? They only do a sensor format breakdown: FF and higher vs cropped formats.

[ehrwien]

So MILC shipments > SLR shipments for December 2019

That IS what his graph shows

[Kunzite]

What data are you plotting there exactly? Because the CIPA data for December 2019 does not match your graphs.

Maybe you're not reading his charts properly?
He's talking about the drop in units produced, not shipments in units - and the DSLMs were at 72.1% of the preceding month, compared with 89% for the DSLRs. The charts reflect this drop (as well as the higher number of DSLMs produced in the last months of the year).

[monochrome]

I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am.

Pentax has the APS-C flagship rumored, Canon has a few mirrorless bodies rumored to be released this year, I’m waiting on the RS one. Nikon will have a D6 out Fuji the xt 4. I think if these bodies come out the manufacturers will have a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

Nobody wants to spend money on something that is about to be improved on and some people are waiting on the new releases to drop the price on older bodies.

I’ve bought new: K10D; K-01; K-3; K-1; KP. They all still work. Why should I buy a new camera?

[ThorSanchez]

I’ve bought new: K10D; K-01; K-3; K-1; KP. They all still work. Why should I buy a new camera?

Why did you buy all those cameras if the first one still worked?